Boom & Busts From The '07 Draft

Discussion in 'National Football League' started by Dirtywater, May 2, 2007.

  1. Raiderjoe

    Raiderjoe Banned

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    No thats not what Im saying. Every team wants to win as soon as possible. Just sometimes losing really bad has it rewards too. Remember that when raiders win a championship before the jets. Sure it been four rough years, but I will gladly accept those years, for multiple superbowls.
     
  2. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    The teams that have gone 4 straight years without winning more than 5 games since the 1970 merger:

    2006 Oakland Raiders (2-14, 4-12, 5-11, 4-12)
    Next playoff appearance: ?

    1994 Cincinnati Bengals (3-13, 3-13, 5-11, 3-13)
    Next playoff appearance: 2005 - 11 year gap after the hole.

    1992 Arizona Cardinals (4-12, 4-12, 5-11, 5-11)
    Next playoff appearance: 1998 - 6 year gap after the hole.

    1990 Atlanta Falcons (5-11, 3-13, 5-11, 3-12)
    Next playoff appearance: 1991 - the season after the hole.

    1989 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11, 5-11, 4-11, 2-14, 2-14)
    Next playoff appearance: 1997 - 8 year gap after the hole.

    1986 Houston Oilers (5-11, 5-11, 3-13, 2-14, 1-8)
    Next playoff appearance: 1987 - the season after the hole.

    1977 New Orleans Saints (3-11, 4-10, 2-12, 5-9, 5-9, 2-11-1, 4-8-2, 2-11-1)
    Next playoff appearance: 1987 - 10 year gap after the hole.

    1977 New York Giants (5-9, 3-11, 5-9, 2-12-0, 2-11-1)
    Next playoff appearance: 1981 - 4 year gap after the hole.

    1975 Chicago Bears (4-10, 4-10, 3-11, 4-9-1)
    Next playoff appearance: 1977 - 2 seasons after the hole.

    1975 San Diego Chargers (2-12, 5-9, 2-11-1, 4-9-1)
    Next playoff appearance: 1979 - 4 seasons after the hole.

    1973 Houston Oilers (1-13, 1-13, 4-9-1, 3-10-1)
    Next playoff appearance: 1978 - 5 seasons after the gap.

    That's it, the entire list of teams bad enough to be unable to win at least 6 games 4 seasons running. The average wait for a playoff birth after the hole was 5 seasons, although 2 teams did get a wildcard birth the season after their horrid run.

    I started the study with 5 wins as the ceiling to make it have some relevance to what the Raiders face today. It was only as I got to the 14 game seasons that I began to have qualms and consider fudging a bit for those teams. 5-9 is not nearly as bad as 5-11 and I wondered if I should throw out all the 14 game season results.

    Then I looked at the end product and it said that the 5 teams who went 5-9 or worse over 4 seasons in a row took on average 5 seasons to get to the playoffs again. The 5 teams that went 5-11 or worse over 4 seasons in a row took the same 5 seasons, on average, to get back to the playoffs. So although the thing being compared was not exactly equal the end result seemed to be.

    The other thing that really surprised me is that even in the bad days of the 70's the Jets never managed to avoid winning at least 6 games over any 4 year span. I figured they'd be in the study when I started it.

    Bottom line: The Raiders have probably a 20% chance at a wildcard next season and are equally likely to get their next playoff appearance in 2011.
     
  3. Sundayjack

    Sundayjack pǝʇɔıppɐ ʎןןɐʇoʇ
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    Hehe. . . now, that's a fine how-do-you-do for poor Jeaux this early in the day.

    The sorrier part is that, for two years now, Jeaux has been raving about the exciting, young defense Oakland has been building, and they'll all soon to be heading off to greener, less dysfunctional, pastures.

    Nnamdi Asomugha must be just itching to hit free agency and get out of that hell hole after this season. And then the floodgates open. Tommy Kelly. . . . . then Stuey. . . . then Kirky. . . . then Fabian. . . . then Mikey. . . .

    Let's not forget also that, despite the warm and fuzzy talk this past week, Derrick Burgess is poised to start shooting his way out of town any minute.


    Aaaahhhhhhh. . . . I love the smell of Raiders in the morning. They smell like. . . . bananas.


    . . . . perpetually 4-12 bananas, at that.
     
  4. NJRaider

    NJRaider New Member

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    I'm going to call you SundayJeaux, because you are just as delusional in your view as you accuse Joe of being in his. In Joe's world everything in Silver and Black is great regardless of the record. In your world everything Silver and Black is awful regardless of the facts. Things are looking good? "Al will ruin it." "Naamdi will leave." "Kirk will leave." etc., etc.

    "Al will ruin it" is the last bastion of the Raider Hater. The fact that you're using it in May tells me you know (dare I say "fear"?) they're on the right track, my friend!
     
  5. ScotsJet

    ScotsJet Active Member

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    There are grounds for optimism in Oakland, but I thought that 2 years ago, so it shows what I know...
     
  6. Yisman

    Yisman Newbie
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    and the fact that jeaux is predicting wild success and a Super Bowl soon tells me the Raiders are going to be awful in the short term.
     
  7. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    Just as an FYI there's no such thing as "fearing" the Raiders any more. Fear was something that happened when they looked like they had a chance to win more than a few games each season. If they get back to that then fear will probably happen again but that's a huge if.

    The other thing is that as great as Davis was during his day he really can't run the Raiders in Depends and using a walker. It just sends the wrong message to the players when he does the fast hobble onto the field during practice to chew a player out, winds up for a big blast at the offending player and then suddenly realizes he's gonna need another diaper change.
     
  8. NJRaider

    NJRaider New Member

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    The whole Depends thing is childish, but roll with it if it makes you laugh. Fact is Davis, who hasn't attended practices in a couple of years by the way, doesn't have to prove anything. Teams who haven't been to a Super Bowl in 39 years, who sell their eager fans on a new "rebuilding" program every 5 years, those are the teams that need to prove that their management can get it done.
     
  9. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    Davis reminds me of Red Auerbach of the Celtics after Len Bias death. He knows it's over and they're not gonna get back on top under his watch but like Auerbach there's nobody to take away the keys and even if there was he'd go down spitting and snarling.

    The Raiders are one of the three most likely teams to become the NFL joke franchise over the next 30 years. The Cardinals have been waiting forever to get out of that hell and another team has finally come along to help them out.
     
  10. NJRaider

    NJRaider New Member

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    Joke franchise? Takes one to know one I guess.

    Blame Davis for hiring Turner, and blame him for hiring Shell. Blame him AND Chucky for ruining a good thing. But give him credit for this; he's cleaned house, he's hired a young eager guy and given him the keys.

    My point to SundayJeaux was this; unlike last offseason, very few in the media have anything bad to say about the Raiders right now. You can't put down their defense, you can't put down their draft, and you can't put down the moves Kiffin has made. So what does the Raider Hater do? You dream. "Al will ruin it, diapers, walkers, blah blah blah.." and all of the other sophomoric crap some of you like to lean on. Never mind that Al hasn't even attended practices since 2005. Never mind that Al has let Kiffin clean house and even has the personnel department reporting to him, which is unprecedented in Raiderland.

    Four bad years does not drop one of the marquee franchises in the history of professional football to the realm of the Cardinals, etc. It's also funny that you seem to think the Cardinals are alone in that department, and not rubbing elbows with the Saints and a certain team in green and white...
     
  11. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    The Jets have never been as bad as the Raiders the last 4 seasons.
     
  12. NJRaider

    NJRaider New Member

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    All time record under 500. Stellar seasons including the immortal 6-10, 3-13, and 1-15 (wow, even worse than last year's pathetic Raider team!) stretch in the mid 90's. 39 years without a Super Bowl appearance. 2 championship game appearances in that same span. Hell, the Raiders have had 2 championship game appearances this decade.

    The Jets have been fairly stable since they hired Parcells, but don't kid yourself.
     
  13. Raiderjoe

    Raiderjoe Banned

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    You can throw out all the numbers for last four years and I could careless. Just like alot of people were throwing out there defensive numbers, and telling me I was crazy to say that there defense was going to be very good.
    Well if you watch Raider games , you would have saw all the young talent they had on that side of ball. Despite the numbers, it wasn't a question of If, but when. raiders further strengthen that defense this offseason.

    With the talent raiders had on offense and defense, there is no way raiders shouldn't have won at least 8 games easily last year. The coaching on offense was really that bad. There is no way there oline is that bad- Raiders new Oline coaches Tom Cable and Alex Gibbs(Parttime) showed by not going Oline early and often ,that they like personal on oline, and they believe it was just bad coaching.
    Their top Wr randy moss didn't even try. Jerry Porter didn't believe in shell offense(training camp), and was pretty much benched for whole season. R curry Probably their best allround Wr, Raiders just were being very careful with him coming back from back to back achilles injury. With healthier Curry this year and J Porter playing for big Bucks(Becomes a FA after this season) It like Raiders having two high first rounders.

    I truly believe in this new coaching staff and its only a matter of time before the Raiders are one of the teams to look out for in AFC again.(defense pretty much set and these coaches know what they are doing on offense)


    I say it 50 % chance Raiders make the playoffs this year.(not really about the playoffs this year). Defense with additions, is going to be so much better this year than last.(not to mention Howard and Huff now know the system. Rob Ryan says he expect both to have an asomugha type breakout season this year)
    I don't think it so much the Qb play, but how much Cable and Gibbs can whip the oline into shape. (might take more than a year to erase the damage the Slater and Shell did) oline plays as well as Cable thinks it could ,and Playoffs are not out of question in 2007. Right now Im looking at least 8-8.

    2008 Raiders defintely will be a playoff team .
     
  14. Raiderjoe

    Raiderjoe Banned

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    I will say it again. When you made your run 2000- 2002 (was the team to beat in AFC- two AFc Championships and one superbowl appearance) and were left with the oldest roster in football. Its just takes time when you go with youth. Raiders didn't win any championships like Cowboys and 49ers dynastys ,but how long did take those teams to comeback after there run was over with.
    NOw Did the Raiders expect it to take this long. OF course not, as they expected to reload. IT didn't happen as guys they thought would come in and be their core(P Buchanons and Napolean harris) didn't pan out. Also they didn't do a good job with hiring headcoaches.
    Raiders do have alot of young talent on both sides of ball and they have very good coaching staff assembled now. I will repeat it again. ITs not a question of IF THE RAIDERS ARE GOING TO BE CONTENDING IN AFC, BUTT A QUESTION OF WHEN. RAIDERS DYNASTY COMING. TIME TO BREAKOUT MY MASCARA AGAIN.
     
  15. Raiderjoe

    Raiderjoe Banned

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    I could see if you were a Patriots fan (there recent sucess) but you have no right as a Jet fan, to pop off on any franchise. Win some hardware and than talk. Raiders been in superbowl in 2002. You?
     
  16. Yisman

    Yisman Newbie
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    Jets won more than 15 games the last four seasons. You?
     
  17. Raiderjoe

    Raiderjoe Banned

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    Who cares you haven't been any closer to superbowl. The goal is to win the superbowl/Championship. Again I can accept being very bad, for a couple years , if it eventually means multiple championships. Raiders roster in alot better shape than jets. Yes Jet overachieved in 2006, Good job. I don't think that will be the case in 2007. Jets were not just two players away. Alot of other team just got alot better this offseason.
     
    #117 Raiderjoe, May 19, 2007
    Last edited: May 19, 2007
  18. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady, 21018 Funniest Member Award Winner

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    You think you'd at least have the decency to be embarrassed enough after Sunday highlighted your truly pathetic predictions that you'd hold off on making some new pathetic and embarrassing ones, jeaux. Didn't they have shame in the Ice Age?
     
  19. Raiderjoe

    Raiderjoe Banned

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    Nah sooner or later Im going to be right. Going to be alot sooner, as Raiders finally got it right with hiring of Lane kiffin. Love where the Raiders are right now, they have alot of quality depth now, on both sides of ball. Can't find anything that kiffin did wrong this offseason.

    Btw You make like I was a big art Shell and Tom Walsh supporter( I was on record that i didn't like the hiring- i remember what it was like the first time)
    I thougt shell could have worked if he hired a very good offensive coordinator. He didn't. well no need to rehash post traumatic experiences. At 125 dollars a pop, my therapist says Im making good progress in my recovery from Art shell regime.
     
  20. Sundayjack

    Sundayjack pǝʇɔıppɐ ʎןןɐʇoʇ
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    Ummm. . . . pray-tell, what might be all these fabulously wily moves Lane Kiffin did this off-season? Are they enough to eek out a fifth win this coming season?




    So, let's recap the last 24 months, shall we?

    Bobby Petrino desperately wanted the job - except that his 17 year-old son wouldn't let him take it, because he was dating the prom queen back in Louisville. Atlanta must have offered him his own island to pry him away from the battle royale of world-class coaching talent for the Raider job.

    Before him, let's not forget, there were the handful of other candidates, who all hopped off the train to looneyville before it hit the station. Al stood on his head convincing us all that none of those guys was ever really going to get the job - so, of course, it didn't matter that they quit before anyone ever mistook them for Raiders candidates.

    But then Uncle Art was sitting right there for the taking. Ready to bring back "Raider football," whatever the hell that is. We heard how Al's biggest regret in 40 years of ownership was firing that Hall of Famer. We heard how the Raiders were finally going to bring back the swagger-of-old. . . . . And then we saw that vacant Art Shell stare from the sidelines.

    But everything would be fine, says Jeaux. All the Raiders needed was a great offensive coordinator to carry the team. And, for that, Cam Cameron was DYING to work for the Raiders, Jeaux tell us. Except when he didn't.

    On to 2007. . . .

    Steve Sarkisian - HE was finally the guy. Except when he wasn't the guy. He couldn't run far enough away from the job.

    Thank God Lane Kiffin was still available. That brilliant offensive mind, with Norm Chow's notes stuffed in his pockets. The new Raider championship era is nigh.


    And Jeaux, for his part, tells us that Lane Kiffin must be the guy because "One of these days I'll HAVE to be right."

    Holy Jamoley, my life would be so much less interesting without you, Jeauxseph.
     

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