Best bet of week

Oasis · Jan 9, 2011

anyone know a good website that could explain betting to me?
my knowledge is very limited

talisaynon · Jan 9, 2011

Yisman said: ↑

better off doing ML with such a low line, I would think.

I never take +1-+2.5 if I can avoid it.

I either take ML or tease it up.

The likelihood of it landing within that range is quite slim.
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i hear you brah. im just throwing money around just cause.

talisaynon · Jan 9, 2011

I'm going to tease both Baltimore and the Steelers. Guaranteed winner :rofl:

Yisman · Jan 9, 2011

Oasis said: ↑

anyone know a good website that could explain betting to me?
my knowledge is very limited
Click to expand...

I don't because I learned mine by simply reading a lot of stuff from assorted places on the Internet, mostly on a messageboard.

I can answer questions, if you want to try that.

wewantsapp · Jan 10, 2011

Yisman, what is the play tonight?
I was all over Auburn at -3 & now the line has gone down to -1.5.
Havent heard or met a single person picking Oregon.
WTF is happening here?

Yisman · Jan 10, 2011

Plenty of people are on Oregon.

As to why the line moved last night, I'm not sure. I noticed it because I have a chance to win in two bowl contests and to meet the minimum picks, I have to pick both the total and the side.

The line has been pretty volatile.

According to Chad Millman, one of the Vegas books actually opened it with Oregon favored, but the line was quickly hammered. Offshore sportsbooks (basically the online ones) were smarter than that. The initial money was on Auburn, but over the past few days, the line has been trending down, first to 2.5 and then around midnight Sunday night to 1.5.

Yisman · Jan 10, 2011

this was written over a month ago:

This is something I had been looking forward to all season, mainly because there has been a disparity between the teams human beings feel are the best team in college football and who computers say is the best team in college football. That's one of the reasons I started doing the The Early Line columns on Wednesdays. Every week since the BCS rankings were first introduced, the teams that would be favored were not the teams in the top spot. Early on, Oregon and Boise State were both favored over Oklahoma. Then the Auburn Tigers took over the top spot and Bob Scucci, the bookmaker at The Orleans, had Oregon favored by 7.5 over them. "I think Auburn is overrated," he said back then. "It is not even the best team in the SEC. Alabama is. Auburn is on par with Georgia and Florida . Meanwhile, Oregon is playing better than any team in the country. Auburn could not keep up with Oregon."

(It's worth noting that, in the same column, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com posted Auburn as minus-1 over Oregon, saying, "The one glaring weakness Oregon has is stopping the run. Not that it has some leaky run defense, but when we are comparing the elite teams even a small advantage can be the difference in winning the game. If we take a look at the four best teams Oregon has played, it has allowed 5.7 ypr [yards per rush] to Tennessee, 5.7 to Arizona State, 6.1 to Stanford and 3.4 to UCLA. That average of 5.2 ypr would not bode well against a team like Auburn, one of the best rushing teams in the nation.")

Sal was in the minority at the time. Oregon, clearly, had such an explosive offense and was garnering such praise from the media, that sports books were finding that games involving the Ducks produced some of their biggest handles of the season. The wiseguys liked them. Squares liked them. Their lines consistently closed much higher than where they were posted. And they still seemed to cover, going 7-4-1 against the spread this year.

Auburn, meanwhile, was no doubt awesome. But both the public and the handicapping community were decidedly less enthusiastic about the Cam Newtons. Part of it was the constant cloud of allegations the team played under. Week-to-week, no one knew if Newton would be ruled ineligible because of the shadiness surrounding his recruiting. And part of it was the perception of Auburn. When the season began, this was not the SEC team that was supposed to be in contention. It didn't have the profile of LSU or the NFL-caliber talent of Alabama. In very subtle ways, Auburn was getting the same treatment from bettors that Boise was getting from the computers: Everything we are seeing is a mirage, it can't be true.

It culminated in the Tigers' going to Alabama as underdogs, despite being undefeated and having the likely Heisman winner at quarterback and a top-10 draft prospect in Nick Fairley at defensive tackle. Not just 'dogs, but 'dogs professional bettors and the public were both fading, meaning they were betting on Bama. In wiseguy speak, everyone believed Auburn was a fraud.

And then it came back from 17 down to beat the Tide at home. A week later it put a beatdown on South Carolina in the most competitive conference championship game in the country.

Naturally, you can see why I wanted to be by my phone and my blackberry when the games ended. What would the lines be, given Auburn's rise?

Alas, I was stuck at dinner. My BlackBerry was dead. My phone was on its last bar. In a bold and courageous move, I swiped my wife's smart phone from the table and fired off e-mails to several bookmakers I know that began, "Hey, it's me, Chad." I didn't want them to be confused by my wife's e-mail address. Then I asked them what they were doing with the line and told them to buzz me up. Two of them called back, on my fading phone. The first was Jay Kornegay, who is the boss at the Hilton. "We are putting up Oregon minus-3," he told me. "It might have been a little higher a few days ago. But now we think we will get a lot of public money on Auburn."

That was the first indication I got that this was going to be a crazy line to set. All season Oregon had been a public team, while Auburn hadn't been getting much support at all. So I asked Jay why that was. "The past two weeks the perception has changed so much for Auburn," he told me. "Beating Bama and then killing South Carolina. We still think Oregon is better, but Auburn is much more of a public team right now."

Less than an hour after posting Oregon minus-3, Kornegay texted me: "We're down to Oregon minus-1."

Then I got an e-mail from Scooch, who said he was opening Auburn as a 1.5-point favorite. It was just six weeks ago when he had Oregon as a 7.5-point favorite in The Early Line column. But his opinion now wasn't all that different than what was happening at a lot of the offshore sports books that wiseguys like to play with, too. They were all favoring Auburn -- previously unloved, unappreciated Auburn -- over the Ducks. I used my cell, now blinking with a low-battery warning, to call Scooch and ask him, "What gives?" His response: "My first impressions on the game would be close to pick 'em, but because Auburn looked better down the stretch, beating Bama and South Carolina, it makes them a slight favorite. But the rating is pretty close to pick 'em."

An hour after that, I got another e-mail from Kornegay: "We now have Auburn minus-1."

In just a few short hours, Oregon had moved from being a 3-point favorite to a 1-point underdog. "The main reason our line moved so much was due to offshore books posting Auburn the favorite," Kornegay e-mailed me Sunday morning. "This is very typical of a lot of games on a weekly/daily basis. Right now, that line is Auburn minus-1. Offshore books opened Auburn minus-3 so I guess they were closer than we were but we had a slight opinion on the Oregon side.

"Most people are betting on what they have seen lately. The buildup of the SEC and Auburn playing well during two big games on national television has swayed the public's opinion. I wouldn't be surprised if the game ends up Auburn minus-3. The sharps will wait until they feel the line has topped out and will take the Ducks.
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wewantsapp · Jan 10, 2011

Back when the bowl schedule was announced, I thought Auburn would have been -7+.
I was looking forward to hammering away at Auburn with everything I have.
The line is down to Auburn -1.
I'm at the point where I have no clue what the hell to do.

wewantsapp · Jan 10, 2011

I guess its not a matter of Auburn's O vs the Oregon D, but moreso how well the Auburn D will handle the Oregon offense.

Yisman · Jan 10, 2011

Auburn -7 would be way over the top.

I don't think Auburn deserved to be favored by more than 3.

Late money has clearly been coming in on Oregon and under.

total has been driven down 2 points to 72 and the line is basically a PK now.

I regret not betting the total earlier, because I doubted it would increase.

talisaynon · Jan 10, 2011

I have 100 on Auburn.

Yisman · Jan 10, 2011

game is almost exactly a PK right now.

Interesting line move.

talisaynon · Jan 10, 2011

Yisman said: ↑

game is almost exactly a PK right now.

Interesting line move.
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i got it as a pick.

Yisman · Jan 10, 2011

If it weren't crazy enough, Oregon has now gone to -1 or -1.5

And a bunch of movement on the total:

first down, then back up

craziness

all the more reason to stay away for me

wewantsapp · Jan 10, 2011

Yisman said: ↑

If it weren't crazy enough, Oregon has now gone to -1 or -1.5

And a bunch of movement on the total:

first down, then back up

craziness

all the more reason to stay away for me
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F--k.
I ended up with Auburn -1 when I placed it at around 2pm.

wewantsapp · Jan 10, 2011

Cam is killing me.

wewantsapp · Jan 10, 2011

Not anymore - he just tossed a TD.

talisaynon · Jan 11, 2011

haha! you can always count on pac-10 schools to choke1

wewantsapp · Jan 11, 2011

---- Whew -----

talisaynon · Jan 12, 2011

Teased GB and Balt +9

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