Papelbon has turned into the closing version of Daisuke from last year. I honestly feel more comfortable with any of the set-up men in the game than him. If Bard and Masterson are both good down the stretch Theo should do the gutsy thing and pull an off-season trade, or at least heavily explore whats out there for Paps. K's down, walks, hits, home runs up.... you're right Cappy he is going to be awful in three years. Bullpen by committee '10!
No shit. Of course, you could also take my statement as a less literal way of saying, "I'd be very, very confident in betting that it doesn't happen." For three reasons: 1. If Papelbon's pitching still well, the Sox are more likely to lock him up (I see this as the least likely situation). 2. If he's not pitching well, the Yanks are less likely to want to acquire him and 3. The Yanks are likely to have already needed to address their closer situation by the time he'd be available. But whatever.
Less literal? Didn't you just go on a rant in another thread about hyperbole being a pet peeve? But I suppose saying you "guarantee" something when you really just mean you don't think it will happen doesn't qualify. Interesting. Anyway, I think Papelbon is gone when his contract expires regardless of how he's pitching. He's indicated several times that he wants to "set the standard" for closer contracts and I don't see this front office paying that much for what is really a very replaceable part. From what I've read, they seem high on Bard taking over, and aside from him they have a decent option in Delcarmen, let alone whoever they may acquire between now and then. As for the last part, Rivera's contract expires after 2010 and Papelbon is a free agent after 2011. It's very possible that the Yankees could either extend Rivera another year or go with a stop gap for a year with the intention of going after Papelbon. All that aside, I actually disagree with your first point anyway. Papelbon's velocity and stuff are still there, but his location has been terrible. Plus he's struggled with the adjustments they made to his mechanics in spring training and has been throwing WAY too many fastballs. He's all but abandoned the splitter that made him so effective. These are all fairly easy to correct, and as I said, the physical tools are still there.
Jesus H. Christ. You seem like a smart enough guy most of the time. I'm surprised I have to explain this to you...although you've seemed rather intent on trying to play "Gotcha!" lately, so maybe that's all it is. In any case, yes, I said I have a problem with hyperbole, especially when it's stuff like, "This is the worst/best [insert whatever] I've ever seen!" It's lazy, and when it's said, is not true. Regarding what I said, I think everyone knows that we have "no way whatsoever of knowing" the future (but thanks for providing the insight). I'd still guarantee that it doesn't happen, and this is still an accurate statement. Just as how I'd be willing to guarantee that I'd win a poker match if I had a 10,000 to 1 chip advantage (even though, according to you, we shouldn't guarantee things that we have no way of knowing). To guarantee something just means you are holding yourself accountable for the outcome. In this particular case (with Papelbon), it's something I'm happy to do. If I'm wrong, come find me, and I'll buy you a cookie. And by the way, you think maybe there's a REASON why Papelbon doesn't throw the splitter anymore?
