Offense: For the first time in what seems like forever, I feel comfortable with almost all of the starters and the depth on both sides of the ball. Fitzpatrick has been good enough on a bad team to not be on one of the "offseason areas of improvement" lists. I'm not saying that he's a franchise QB, or even one that can get you to the playoffs and win, I'm saying he's been better at his position than the other guys have been at their position, allowing us to focus on other positions to improve. It is more of a statement about the rest of the team being bad than Fitzpatrick being good. I think for the first time in 3 years now, Fitzpatrick and the QB position will be the focus of attention this season. I don't know if he will step up or not. He sure looked great while we (and he) were healthy for the first 7-8 games last year. Now is the time to see if he can do that for an entire season. If he can, then great, he is our man. If he can't, time to look for a franchise guy in the 1st round of net year's draft. I honestly have no opinion on whether I think he will succeed or fail. Time will tell. As for the rest of the offense, I feel great about it with the exception of the #2 WR role. We have two outstanding RB's, a #1 WR with very solid depth behind him in David Nelson, Donald Jones, TJ Graham, Brad Smith, etc. Our line is a top 10 line in the league, and actually has depth in case starters go down this season. We only use our TE's to block and in the red zone, so we're ok with Chandler for the time being. Not a great player by any means, but certainly sufficient for what we like to do on offense. I go back and forth about not having a legit #2 receiver. On one hand, I feel that on a basic level, only having 1 go-to guy is a bad thing and that we need another guy to take the pressure off. On the other hand, we run a spread offense, 4-5 WR sets most of the time. In spread offenses in general, it isn't a prerequisite to have a monster #2 because there are so many options on the field. We have very good guys there (Nelson and Jones) just not that number 2 option. Our offense is not built around players and getting guys touches, it is built around throwing to the open man (whoever he is). Not really sure where I stand on the position, we'll find out this year. Defense: I'm glad the Bills are going back to the 4-3 defense. We just did not have the coaches (George Edwards was our DC) or players to successfully run that system. What we had was a bunch of 4-3 coaches (Wannstedt) and 4-3 personnel trying to run a 3-4. Having 2 outstanding DT's in Kyle Williams and Marcel Dareus causing disruption in a more penetrating style defense, as opposed to a take-up-blockers 3-4, is much more conducive to their strengths. Flank that havoc-wreaking middle by two pass rushers in Mario Williams and Mark Anderson (or Chris Kelsay and Shawne Merriman) and I'm really happy with our line. Depth there is also a strength, with Kelsay and Merriman backing up at the ends, and Dwan Edwards, Torrell Troup, Alex Carrington, Kellen Heard and Spencer Johnson backing up the tackles. Like the QB and #2 WR is my focus this year on the offensive side, the linebackers will be my target on defense. I see this as an area that could either work out really well or be the demise of our defense. Nick Barnett played outstanding last year, and IMO, should have made the pro bowl. The problem is, that was the first time he's been able to stay healthy for an entire season in quite some time, and I'm skeptical he will be able to repeat that this season. I expect him to miss some time this year, he's due. Kelvin Sheppard will be manning the middle. Every year I usually have 1 favorite player in the upcoming draft. The Bills never get that guy. Last year my #1 was Sheppard. It was my opinion that he has everything you're looking for: sideline to sideline speed, a thumper in the middle, intelligence (he was the captain, leader and play caller for a top LSU defense) and on top of that, had amazing leadership skills with his teammates and coaches. Will that translate to this level? No idea. Last year he played decent. Not great or terrible, but I'd say decent. Now he is going back to his usualy 4-3. In order for this defense to really be successful we need the man in the middle to succeed. He will either step up this season or not, and if he doesn't, it will likely be a focus for next year's draft. We've got Kirk Morrison, Nigel Bradham, Tank Carder, and some throw ins from our roster last year in Arthur Moats, Danny Batten, etc. They are all competing for playing time. We are in the nickel defense about 80% of the time, meaning that only 2 LBers (Barnett and Sheppard) will be on the field, so I really don't care who the other guy is. Looking at weaknesses after this season is over with, this unit could either be really really good, or an absolute disaster. I imagine the worst being that Barnett can't stay healthy, is old, and Sheppard just isn't the guy we hoped he'd be, leaving us with major concerns and areas to fill in the offseason. I hope that doesn't happen. Oh and btw, Bradham was one of my top favorites in this year's draft. I'm excited to see what he can bring. Our secondary is another strength. I'm typically a reasonable person and a realist, so for me to say this mean a lot, but I honestly think that Jairus Byrd is one of the best free safeties in the league and George Wilson is one of the best strong safeties. The way those two played last year (when they were healthy) was amazing to watch. Our corners are big, tough, fast, and young. Aaron Williams and Stephon Gilmore will likely start, with Terrence McGee, Leodis McKelvin, Ron Brooks and Justin Rogers for depth. Very good group. The QB will be the key on offense, and the LB'ers on defense. Schedule: The schedule is good for the Bills this year. If I had to pick wins and losses, I would say a realistic expectation for the division is that we go 3-3. I think we lose to the Pats twice, split with the Jets, and beat the Dolphins twice. I think 3 wins from the division is realistic. Now the rest of our schedule... I realistically see us beating bad teams like Cleveland, Arizona, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, St. Louis, and Seattle, and I see us beating Tennessee. That would be 7 wins that I think is realistically doable. Now, if that happens, we have 10 wins still with Kansas City, Houston, and San Francisco left to play. IMO, KC's roster is legit and I expect them to be very, very tough. Even if we lost all 3 of those games, we're sitting at 10-6. Say we get a win or 2 there and that would be a scary record. Our first 5 games are tough. The Jets, Kansas City, Cleveland, Patriots, San Francisco. I think most of the losses for the season will come there. I can see us going 2-3 there, but most of the easy games are left on the schedule and our record should improve. That means that Bills fans and the media will be calling us fakers for starting off the year 2-3 or even 1-4, but I expect that to happen and it won't mean we're not for real. It is just the tough part of our schedule.
Good writeup. I certainly haven't seen as many Bills games as you but here's a few impressions I have from afar. Referring to CJ Spiller as an "outstanding" RB seems a little generous. I think he's a good fit for the offense, works well in tandem with Jackson, and has the potential to become the kind of player your talking about. But as of right now, he hasn't proven much. I don't think the O line is all that great, but that's OK because so much of Gailey's offense is predicated on 3 and 5 step drops. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a perfectly acceptable QB for Gailey's system. No, he's not a franchise guy, but he's a nice fit for what the Bills are trying to do. The only question I have with him is can he avoid turning the ball over when facing the better defenses. If Dareus steps up, the D line is absolutely sick. Kyle Williams is nasty, one of the most underrated players in the league. I wouldn't be surprised to see teams try to attack the defense by using heavier formations and running the ball right at them. I don't think many teams are gonna like their chances of trying to pass protect against that front four 30-40 times a game. It's tough to feel too great about their playoff chances when they are in the same division as the Patriots, but they are definitely a team I consider to be in the mix for a wild card spot.
On Spiller, I agree. I meant outstanding in terms of what we had at the position as a whole. I should have said that and been more clear. CJ obviously isn't "oustanding" or "great" but he is a damn good back. He really stepped up when Fred went down, averaging 5.2 yards per carry over the second half of the season. He has the blitz pickup down now and can also split out as a wide receiver, which he did quite frequently for us last year. I love having him on the offense and can't wait to see what he can do as "the man" when Fred starts slowing down. However, I do think the o-line is great. In pass protection they allowed the fewest sacks in the league and in the run game were in the top 5 in yards per carry. They were the recipient of several awards and acknowledgements for their play. Add to that Cordy Glenn, a healthy Eric Wood and Zebrie Sanders, and they only get better. This is the first time we've had depth at tackle in a long, long time. As for Dareus, I don't see why he would have to "step up" from last year. He was forced to change positions due to the Kyle Williams' injury and all he did was lead the team in sacks from as a nose tackle. I repeat... nose tackle. That is quite an accomplishment for a rookie, IMO. He's a great player to have.
We'll have to agree to disagree on the O line. The YPC stat is an impressive one, but they only ran the ball 40% of the time. I know some of that is a function of being down in games, but in general they ran a pass first offense. The sack stat isn't relevant to me, as I stated earlier, it's easy to protect the QB if the scheme is designed for him to get rid of the ball quickly. But we're kind of splitting hairs here. Is the O line good enough? We both think the answer is yes. As far as Dareus, I don't think I made myself clear. I wasn't trying to bash his rookie year, I was impressed by what I saw. When I said "step up" I meant establish himself as one of the premier interior lineman in the league, which is something I think he has the capability to do.
My take on the Bills is that it has been a long time since they were a decent team. I don't think they fixed all the problems this past off-season with Mario Williams and Mark Andersen. I think the offense is fairly over-rated mainly because the defense has been bad enough the last couple of seasons that the offense has had the ability to pass a lot against defenses just trying to keep them from scoring quickly. I don't think Fitzgerald is actually all that good. I just think if you give a guy who is decent 35 throws a game against a soft defense he'll put up some numbers for you. I think that's what Fitzgerald has done the last couple of seasons. I think Fred Jackson is a decent back but he's benefited heavily from opponents not playing 7 and 8 guys in the box all game long because they want to drop a guy or two in a soft zone to keep the Bills from scoring too fast after their offense waxed the Bills defense again. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buffalo win 8 or 9 games and maybe even challenge for the wild card if the Jets are off this season. I'd be shocked if they won 10+ and took a playoff spot. You just don't fix a decade of bad football by signing an injury-prone defensive superstar and a journeyman defensive end who had a good season last year while the rest of the defense he was on sucked.
I'll address the Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson arguments in a later post when I have time to get the stats, but I wanted to comment on "fixing bad football." This isn't just one offseason of fixing. It has been a slow progression over the last 3 years of rebuilding. I'm not sure if you are implying the Bills have not improved their roster until this year, but if you are, that is either a complete lack of knowledge about the Bills' transactions and drafts or just insanity. Over the last 3 years, We've seen an emergence of Fitzpatrick, Stevie Johnson, Fred Jackson, Kyle Williams, Jairus Byrd, George Wilson, a top 10 offensive line in the league, and added players such as Marcel Dareus, Mario Williams, Mark Anderson, Nick Barnett, Stephon Gilmore, CJ Spiller, Aaron Williams, etc. It has been a process, much like the one the Detroit Lions did for 3 years under Schwartz. It wasn't just "adding Mario and Anderson" to a pile of shit.
What I'm implying is that the fundamental problems on the Bills, the things that keep them down, are still there. On the offensive side you have a QB who is ok but not a world beater by any means. You have a 30 year old runningback who is probably the best player on that side of the ball but he's 30+ and he's runningback and he's shown no signs of being able to take the 300+ carries the Bills will need out of him next year. Spiller is also ok, but nothing special. Mainstay runningbacks don't take awhile to emerge the way QB's and WR's do. If they're not productive early and they had a real shot at the job there's a reason they didn't get it done. The upside for Spiller right now is that he might be a rotational back that then takes the lead role in the rotation from Jackson in a year or two. The receivers are a middle of the road group. They don't hurt the Bills but they don't really help all that much either. The offensive line is decent but it's just as much a hodgepodge as the Jets. The top players aren't as good but the bottom guys aren't holes either. In other words you guys basically have the same problems on offense that the Jets do, those problems having been masked by the fact that the Bills are generally playing from behind so it looks like the offense is fairly productive when in fact it is just staying even in a loosened game state. On the defensive side you're just not as good as the Jets, and that's a schematic thing more than anything else. Rex Ryan makes great defenses out of what he has available on hand. His defenses are always a little bit softer than the numbers they put up, because he makes magic out of fairly ordinary players, but they're solid defenses. The Bills added some very good players this off-season and Marcel Dareus was a great pickup last year. That's still not going to get them from 30th on defense to top 10. It's just not going to happen. The Texans went from last to top 5 because they added good players over a period of years and then got Wade Phillips to come in and run the defense for them. His schematic shift combined with the talent they had and turned them into a topflight defense. Dave Wannstedt was there for the lousy defense last season. Yeah he wasn't DC but he was in the building and his guys were as responsible for the suckage as anybody's. Making him DC and switching to the 4-3 and bringing in the guys you got this off-season is going to make for an improvement but it's going to be a middle of the pack defense. If the Bills wanted a huge overhaul they needed to bring in a new DC from outside the building. Promoting Wannstedt did a lot to flatten out the overall effect of changing DC's in my opinion. Suh, Calvin Johnson and Mathew Stafford are just better players than their counterparts on the Bills. Process is good but great players is what makes the kind of improvement the Lions made possible.
Spiller: Spiller didn't play. You think he didn't play because he wasn't good. That is not true. When you're playing behind statistically the best RB in the league you are not going to sit that guy on the bench. You keep Fred Jackson in as long as he is breathing. Spiller not playing had nothing to do with him, and everything to do with Fred Jackson. When he did get his opportunity due to Fred's injury, he lead the league with 5.2 yards per carry the second half of the season. He proved he was a weapon. He proved he is an every down back. So I'm not really sure why you are saying he didn't produce early when that's exactly what he did. Offensive Line: The Bills and Jets are not comparable here, and it isn't even close. The Bills had a top 5 line last year and only got better there this offseason. Wannstedt: The argument you make about getting someone from the outside doesn't make sense. Chan was here and had his DC George Edwards running a 3-4 scheme. That is something Dave is not accustomed to or knowledgeable about. They brought him in to be the LB coach. Now he has complete control of the defense, with his system. Essentially, we did bring someone in from the outside with new ideas and a completely new scheme.
Yeah, the judgement of Spiller is pretty unfair. Jamaal Charles was another running back in his rookie year who struggled to be successful because he was a speed back who wanted to bounce everything outside. Spiller had the same problem, but we saw him running between the tackles a lot more last season and he put up solid numbers as the feature back once Jackson went down. As for the defense, I think it's silly not to expect a big leap from a group that is going from one of the worst lines in the game last season (just Dareus facing constant double teams) to one of the best this season. That 30th ranked defense played without it's best player in Kyle Willams (the top graded DT in all of football in 2010 by pro football focus). Even the few games Williams did play, he played hurt. No reason to think Dareus won't be even better in his second season. Running up the middle is going to be very tough on this line, but don't forget that Mario Williams is a great run defender as well. Obviously the pass rush will be much improved (assuming the health of the line), which can only help the secondary. Essentially Buffalo is adding three defensive lineman who didn't play last season (if you include Kyle Williams) and anything Merriman can contribute is a bonus.
The Bills are most likely to be a 17th offense and a 15th defense or something along those lines this season. That will put them in the 8 win range plus or minus a game is my guess. That's an improvement over their recent performances but I think the hype on them is going to leave their fans disappointed with the results. The offense is going to be playing in tight games more often and they're going to find the easy yards they're used to getting just aren't there. It's easy to rush for 5 yards a carry when you're down 13 points in the second half. That's not going to be the case as often next year as it has been in years past. Fitzpatrick is going to be under more pressure also because dumping the ball off against a soft deep zone isn't going to be available to him as often. The defense is going to be much better than last year but they're not going to make the leap from terrible to great. They'll be lucky to get to consistently good. They'll most likely settle for not consistently bad.
I don't know man, I hope you're right, but I'm a little more worried about them. I don't think they're gonna win more than 10 games, but I think they present some pretty serious problems for opposing teams. 1) Fred Jackson is legit. I know he's 30, but he also has less than 1000 total touches in his career. He's a good enough player to be the focal point of a quality offense. 2) While it's not elite, that passing game does more than just beat soft coverages. Schematically speaking they run an impressive spread offense, and they have the right kind of players to execute it. I know why people think Fitzpatrick isn't very good, but he's a nice fit for what they do. 3) They have undeniable talent on the D line and in the secondary. They don't have many games against quality passing attacks this year, so I think they're gonna remain competitive in almost all their games. I wouldn't be surprised to see them have a season kind of like the 2010 Jets, where they play a lot of close games and pull out wins at the end.
The only way the Bills have a great season next year is if the Jets play poorly all year, which is possible, and Tom Brady gets hurt early which is much less likely. There just isn't room for another AFC East team to win 10+ games next year unless the Pats are at 10 or less and the Jets are a non-contender. For the Bills to go from 6-10 to really good is just highly improbable given what we know about them. For them to take the step to 8-8/9-7 is very likely but to go above that is probably a 10% chance or so.
Buffalo played in more tight games with Spiller as the lead back than not (3 loses by 7 or less and 1 straight up win, as opposed to 2 blowout loses) and clearly Jackson's production came in just as many wins as losses. Buffalo ran the ball well last year, especially when you consider the injuries along the offensive front. It also didn't help the rushing attack when Donald Jones, the only receiver capable of stretching a defense, went down. I think the injuries this team faced as a whole gets lost in the shuffle (especially losing the best player on each side of the ball, the injuries to the offensive line, and Fitzy's cracked ribs), and the hope is that the team will be healthier this season. I think improved depth will help in that area as we won't be forced to push the starters but clearly luck plays a big role (though a guy like Wood is a legit injury concern every year). I mean Buffalo was essentially a dropped Stevie pass away from having the same record as the Jets last year even with all those key injuries and no pass rush. Why pundits expect improvement from the Bills is because they can point to the effect that the defensive line will have on the rest of the defense and pairing that with an offense that competed least year. I don't know if I can point to a reason why the Jets should be much (or at all) better. I think the main argument is that Sanchez will take a big leap but that's really just an assumption. It's not any major free agent they've added. You can predict that the rookies will make a big impact but that's just a guess. You can say last season was just an off year but that's just another guess, as it could just be that the team has gotten a little worse (o-line, running game, no Braylon, defense not as dominant in terms of points allowed) and/or that other teams have gotten better. I don't know that Buffalo is better than the Jets, in fact they probably aren't, but they are much closer than Jet fans would like to admit.
It's perfectly common for two teams in a division to win 10+ games, I don't see why it's so unlikely in this case. But I do know in the NFL, things can change fast. Cincy, Houston, and SF all took pretty big steps forward last year, I don't think it's out of the question the Bills do something similar this year.
And Jets were one Cromartie non-fumble away from beating Oakland, two bad officiating calls away from defeating Ravens, one Tebow stop away from defeating Broncos, and only one out of six third down stop away from defeating Dolphins to reach to a 12-4 record, that too with several key injuries to the OL and Safety, an aging WR, and no pass rush. Lets play this game all day!
I actually regret throwing that in but the point remains that the Bills and Jets weren't all that far apart from each other last year and there's no reason to think they won't be even closer this season. The difference is that I can point to the Mario Williams and Mark Anderson signings and a hopefully healthy roster as why the Bill will likely improve. The Jets can point to rookies or largely unproven players as to how they'll improve, unless you're a big believer in Landry and/or Bell . That was the main point.
I don't understand why this has to be the case. Pats, Jets and Bills can split all series between them, and still have 10+ wins a piece. Not saying Bills will win 10. I still think they are a 7-9, or 8-8 team at best unless they get a QB who can deliver in pressure situations. Fitz isn't the guy, but Fitz is better than a rookie Sanchez, so a 10-6 season wouldn't be out of reach for Bills. But just like you said, "its improbable". I just don't get why Jets having a bad season has anything to do with Bills besides their two game series, which Jets should sweep.
Good and more reasonable post! I despise comments such as "we were this play away from SB". Not that I haven't used it myself though. However, read my above post. I think Bills can be 8-8. They'll need Fitz to deliver in pressure games to reach 10+ wins. It can happen, but Im not a Fitz believer. And Landry is a definite upgrade over Leonhard while any moving object > Eric Smith. So the safety position was upgraded. We didn't have a deep threat. Just having Hills in there fixes the need, regardless of how many targets he gets. We didn't have pass rush, but (this will hurt) having Maybin and drafting pass rushing DE in Coples will be better than the combo we had last year. The only major need not addressed was RT. We'll see how that plays out in a more simple OL coaching.
I'm not a Fitzy fan boy by any stretch but he did have his clutch moments last year in early season rallies against the Raiders and Patriots. Before his rib injury against Washington and the injuries to the offense as a whole he was extremely productive, so I'm willing to give him a mulligan (not THAT Mulligan) for his drop in production. This is a make or break year for his future. Landry can be an upgrade if he stays on the field but he really took a chance not getting the surgery. It's something Merriman regretted waiting on. I think Maybin running wide and wild on passing downs is a good thing for the Jets but I have my doubts on whether he can maintain/add that weight to take on a more prominent role. It's been a challenge for him. He falls into the largely unproven players category I mentioned, in my opinion. We also hope TJ Graham can solve our lack of a deep threat. Like you said, just someone the defense has to account for. I just hate playing the "guess the rookie impact" game.
