Allen Vs Mayfield at the 3 pick - what the film shows

Discussion in 'Draft' started by GasedAndConfused, Mar 26, 2018.

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If Rosen and Darnold are gone, who would you pick with the 3rd pick?

  1. Mayfield

    63.2%
  2. Allen

    36.8%
  1. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    Hands are a huge concern. Just ask Brady. He had to deflate footballs to make up for his Trump-sized hands.
     
  2. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    rosen has big hands, allen has huge hands. darnold and mayfield have small hands.
     
  3. xxedge72x

    xxedge72x 2018 Gang Green QB Guru Award Winner

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    Mayfield has the same hand size as Philip Rivers, and Darnold the same as Aaron Rodgers. But sure.
     
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  4. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    still doens't mean they aren't small by NFL standards.

    Here is a good article about hand size www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/47036/311/exploring-qb-hand-size

    Small QBs with large hands include brees, wilson, and favre.

    some small handed QBs include vick, kapernick, RG3, culpepper, romo, and rodgers

    typically you want a QB with hands of 10 inches or more. mayfield is at 9.25-9.5 inches (not sure why the discrepancy) which many consider the bare minimum

    another good breakdown https://nypost.com/2018/04/14/deep-dive-into-how-top-4-qbs-in-draft-compare-to-nfls-top-15-qbs/
     
    #584 GasedAndConfused, Apr 17, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2018
  5. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

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    Mark Sanchez has huge hands (size 10.5) and he was the NFL all time leader in fumbles per game his first four years. While I don't discount that small hands playing in the NE can be something of concern pocket presence, awareness instincts, and ability to process information is a lot more important than hand size.

    I believe Mayfield's hand size was 9.25 and 9.50 being measured at the combine and senior bowl. Darnold was 9 3/8. Both would fall in the lower end to lower middle of NFL QB hand sizes. Rosen's is 9 7/8 close to NFL average. Allen's are big at 10 1/8.

    Here is an article comparing current hand size of NFL players to give some perspective. http://thesportsquotient.com/nfl/2016/3/26/does-a-quarterbacks-hand-size-really-predict-success


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    #585 Noam, Apr 17, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2018
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  6. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    look at my post right above this one :)
     
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  7. xxedge72x

    xxedge72x 2018 Gang Green QB Guru Award Winner

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    The discrepancy on Mayfield is because he measured differently at the combine (9.5) and his pro day (9.25). I read somewhere that there are exercises a person can do to manipulate their hand size when being measured, though I don't know why he would do this for one and not the other. I'd just assume it's the smaller.

    Hand size, like height, are advantages, but not deal breakers. The examples provided prove that to be a fact. Players that aren't ideal in measurement can overcome this with skill. It is not the majority, but they do exist. This is undeniable. The real difference is whether or not we believe the skill exists. I do, you don't. If Mayfield goes top 5, that would suggest the NFL community believes he has the skill as well.

    It's a good thing they aren't measuring dong size at these events too, or the inches insecurity would really get out of control here.
     
  8. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

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    I thought it was senior bowl 9.5 and combine 9.25?
     
  9. xxedge72x

    xxedge72x 2018 Gang Green QB Guru Award Winner

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    Eh I don't know. :confused:
     
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  10. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

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    We might have finally then found something you do not know. Your posts during this draft time have been amazing and quite educational for me. Thanks for the great posts.
     
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  11. xxedge72x

    xxedge72x 2018 Gang Green QB Guru Award Winner

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    Glad I could provide value to someone here. :)
     
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  12. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    depends who is measuring too. some will inflate if asked kindly enough. i remember one story i think it was a short RB maybe sproles who was begging the guy to add an inch to his height. I'd probably assume the smaller as well and yes i'm aware of hand stretching but like you said it's odd that it would be done on one but not the other?

    I understand nothing is a deal breaker, but like you said it's a disadvantage. Darnold has small hands and had a fumbling issue, he can learn to work around it, but big hands come in handy especially in bad weather games which playing in NY (ok technically NJ) will result in playing in quite a few of those when they matter most. I still don't see mayfield going top 5 personally, I have a feeling the highest he'd go is 10 if someone (bills?) jump miami at 11 and if not, i see miami taking him at 11. I still think mayfield will be the 4th QB off the board behind allen, rosen, and darnold. I also think darnold despite his small hands and regression, will go 1st. The real questions will be where will allen and rosen land. I believe the jets will take rosen at 3, but for allen he could go as high as 5 to denver or as low as 10 with a trade up before miami picks, but it'll be interesting to see. As fans we tend to overrate the QB position draftwise in a way that NFL teams don't.
     
  13. xxedge72x

    xxedge72x 2018 Gang Green QB Guru Award Winner

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    It seems QB is cyclical. One year teams are going nuts trying to get into position. The next they are not and then Deshaun Watson happens.

    I think all 4 QBs are wildcards. And then there is the "it only takes 1", and if that 1 is at the top of the draft, then you end up with Blake Bortles.

    The draft never goes the way people expect. Will be interesting for sure.
     
  14. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    Some teams are looking if the right QB arrives in their hands (possibly giants, broncos, cards, fins, pats) but i think only 3 teams are "all in" for a QB this year. Us, the browns, and the bills. The browns are in the best position with the 1st and 4th overall picks. The jets are in a solid position picking 3rd. The bills are on the outside looking in with a lot of capital but no picks in the top 10. they are going to look to move up and grab one most likely. Should be interesting to watch, but honestly I don't see Qbs going 1,2, and 3. it's only happened 1 time. I think the giants pass on a QB
     
  15. PennyandtheJets

    PennyandtheJets Well-Known Member

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    Not that I will be right, but my guess right now is:

    1. Allen
    2. Darnold
    3. Mayfield/Rosen

    Not that it matters, but it has actually happened 2 times. 1999 and 1971

    You may well be right though. Easy to see Giants sticking at that pick and not taking one.
     
    #595 PennyandtheJets, Apr 17, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2018
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  16. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    it could happen. rumor is the giants could only take a QB if darnold is there

    in 1999 picks 1 and 3 were busts (couch and akili smith) while pick 2 (mcnabb) was a good QB
    in 1971 the best QB of the 3 was archie manning (picked 2nd) but all 3 found sucess (1 and 3 won a SB and 2 and 3 made the pro bowl) all 3 had good careers overall. it was a different NFL back then though

    either way, in this situation the team picking 2nd wound up with the best QB
     
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  17. PennyandtheJets

    PennyandtheJets Well-Known Member

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    Was listening to Joel Klatt yesterday and he brought up something that I thought was interesting and alarming for Allen and thought I would share.

    Essentially, this is what he said..."In his entire college career, what game did Allen dominate in? For all the other QB's you can find at least 1 game where they were head and shoulders the dominate factor in the game. With Josh Allen, he never had that game. That is alarming to me." He also mentioned how Allen didn't even have this type of game two seasons ago when he was playing on an offense that had several draft-able players.

    I realize I am vocal in my wanting to steer clear of Allen, but I just feel very strongly that this guys red flags fly so much higher than the rest of these QB's.

    I am pretty sure he talked about this in the below video if you want to listen to him talk about it.

     
    #597 PennyandtheJets, Apr 20, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2018
  18. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

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    Nice post. What is really alarming to me is Klatt said Allen did not even make 1st or second team QB all MWC when voted by other coaches. He wasn't even in the top 2 of QBs in the MWC.

    What I find crazy is when people talk about Josh Allen's potential. This imagined potential is based solely on arm strength and measureables not anything he has done on the field. 98 percent of playing QB is mental and processing speed. Being a good QB has nothing to do with arm strength. if we talk about unrealistic QB potential then every QB has unlimited potential to be the next Tom Brady based on developing on the mental side. But realistically a guy like Allen who is slow on the processing side, has not shown ability to understand defenses, has terrible accuracy, needs a lot of work on his mechanics, does not throw with anticipation, does not stay disciplined in the pocket and lacks poket presence has the realistic potential to be what? If things go really really well for Allen and his processing speed speeds up a bit for him and he actually improves most of his flaws. What then is his potential realistically? A decent back-up or maybe a bottom ten Bortles type starter? Is it realistic to expect him to improve to even mediocre in most of the aspects of playing QB that he lacks? No, of course not.

    Buying a guy like Allen is like buying a lottery ticket. If we only had to pick one of the 6 numbers that is possible. It might even be likely to pick 2 or 3 of the 6 but expecting to pick all 6 on the same ticket is not something we should expect to happen. This is why we look at QBs that have most of the skills necessary to play QB. Who have shown skill in pocket presence, accuracy, developed mechanics, reading defenses processing speed, accuracy and so on. There are essentially a lot less numbers on the lottery ticket we have to hit to win. Allen may improve upon one or two of his flaws but not everything and enough to become a good NFL QB. Really this is a guy who has no business being drafted. The Mike Malamula, Gholston's and Allen are busts waiting to happen and it's not their fault its because we as human beings fall in love with their physical talents and project unrealistic talents that will never be there.
     
  19. 6-10 once again

    6-10 once again Well-Known Member

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    Another thing I don't understand is how NOBODY in the media is talking about Josh Allens massive injury red flags... the kid has broken his collarbone in 7 places and has 8 screws and a plate in it... coupled with his accuracy concerns this to me makes him untouchable for us.
     
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  20. All Gas No Shake

    All Gas No Shake Well-Known Member

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    orlovsky pretty much sums up my biggest issue with josh allen

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ys-ultimate-boom-bust-2018-nfl-draft-prospect
     
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