Allen Vs Mayfield at the 3 pick - what the film shows

I think you might be able to get him at 6 or as an UDFA. I would definitely take Anthony Miller in the third.

 

Fixed it for you!!!

 

Hate to dump on a fellow HU alumni, but Sashi Brown spent the better part of 2 years making personnel decisions solely on the basis of analytics. In that span, they WON 1 F*CKING GAME while passing on the likes of Goff, Wentz, Mahomes and Watson in the draft. They went ahead scratch that whole analytics or bust approach and hired a real see it with your eyes football guy as GM. So forgive me when I fail to nut all in my pants over Mayfield's adjusted CMP% when the temperature drops below 75 degrees and being blitzed on 2nd and long by 5-11 left handed nickel corners with a propensity for domestic violence in the state of Florida.

 

Height: Again this is an overblown issue. The way this issue is discussed you would think Mayfield is a midget, a child amongst men. It just isn't the case.



This is Mayfield and Rosen side by side. Optimistically speaking, there might be one play per game on average that Mayfields height disadvantages him compared to someone Rosens height. The more important issue is do they have the mechanics and footwork to deal with the situations they will face? Pennington has some thoughts on that:

http://m.newyorkjets.com/news/artic...rospects/f2f66403-c71a-4084-a82a-92067b8694ce

Pennington acknowledges his height will be cause for some systemic adjustments. There is nothing wrong with this. Does he have the right mechanics and footwork to operate within the system? Many seem to think not, but their evidence is his height and not his technique. These are not one and the same.

Many successful NFL QBs are not 6'5, forgetting Brees and Wilson. Aaron Rodgers is among the league's best and he is smack in the middle of height difference between Mayfield and Rosen. If anyone thinks the height difference between Mayfield and Rodgers makes Mayfield undraftable or overrated, they are totally missing what the difference in height amounts too and overrating its significance.

Second, the Oklahoma issue: I hate this talking point because everyone who makes this claim never backs it up. In the Mac doesn't like Mayfield thread I just posted about the five hardest defenses each QB faced while in college and listed the statistics used to arrive at that. To this point:

1) Mayfield played against the hardest group of competition out of anyone in this draft class. While he didn't blow away the competition, he absolutely held his own. He threw 2 INTs in two of those games. Darnold gave one 2 INT game, Rosen gave one 3 INT game (and also missed 3 games that would've been placed higher, and got benched in his hardest game), and Allen gave three 2 INT games and one 5 INT game. From a success standpoint, Darnold had the best game by far against Penn State in the Rose Bowl in 2016 (the defensive ranks of Penn State wouldn't have qualified for Mayfields top 5, in fact only two of Darnolds opponents would have, one of which Mayfield also played: Ohio State in 2017).
2) Among the 4 QBs, Darnold posted the most impressive statistics against his top 5 defenses played. That said, Mayfields best game came against Ohio State in 2017 (3 TD, 0 INT) who Darnold also played and didn't do nearly as well against in a losing effort (0 TD, 1 INT).
3) The top 4 individual performances that came out of the 20 games identified went in this order in terms of impressive performance: Darnold, Mayfield, Darnold, Mayfield.
4) Rosen and Allen both faced significantly weaker competition, and both played pedestrian to poorly against their top 5 opponents.

Point 3, about Mayfield playing well against Ohio State while Darnold did not, will inevitably return to the discussion of the mythical unicorn team that Mayfield played on with Oklahoma. Despite the fact that so many people remain convinced that Darnold, Rosen, and Allen all made their teams better while only Oklahoma made Mayfield better, let's look at some of the draft prospectus from these schools:

Using NFL.com for commonality:

Oklahoma:
OT O. Brown 6.1
QB B. Mayfield 6.0
TE M. Andrews 5.7
FB D. Flowers 5.5
WR J. Badet 4.8

USC
QB S. Darnold 7.0
RB R. Jones 6.2
WR D. Burnett 5.4
WR S. Mitchell 4.9

UCLA
QB J. Rosen 6.1
OT K. Miller 5.6
WR J. Lesley 5.5
C S. Quessenberry 5.4

Wyoming
J. Allen 6.0

So, at least going by NFL.coms #, only Josh Allen is devoid of draftable offensive talent around him. Mayfield benefits from the highest rated pass catcher, a TE at 5.7, followed by WRs from USC and UCLA at 5.5 and 5.4 respectively. A huge disparity for sure. USC benefits from the only RB in the class that will be drafted anywhere relevant, and Oklahoma has 1 and UCLA 2 OL who will be drafted. It's worth noting there is a legitimate argument to be made that Orlando Brown has taken the most significant draft stock drop of any prospect in this entire draft class.

Now that we've established that Mayfield is the midget running with the hogs, Walter Peyton, Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, and Tony Gonzalez...

Oklahoma did have the #1 offense in 2017, but when you look at individual receiving statistics, their top 2 players are #19 WR M. Brown and #37 TE M. Andrews. USC walked away with #16 D. Burnett and UCLA #9 J. Lesley. The passing spread of Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA are very similar to each other with one major distinction: 16.4 yards per play for Oklahoma as opposed to 13.5 for USC and 13.2 for UCLA. UCLA also did not benefit from a running game as good as USC and Oklahoma had. Oklahoma did have very good offensive talent, but it was not light years ahead of the rest as people are making it out.

The point of all of this is to illustrate that Mayfield isn't a beneficiary while the others are not. UCLA and USC both had more productive top receivers than Oklahoma. In the case of Darnold he also had a better running game than what Oklahoma had (not true of UCLA). Mayfield doesn't get enough credit for making Oklahoma a better team as opposed to simply enjoying a wealth of riches.

Finally, when you say the head stuff is drivel, I say the argument is drivel. The NFL is an extremely competitive league that requires a multitude of factors for success to be obtained. If the player doesn't have the mental toughness and drive to accomplish their goals, and if those goals aren't ridiculously ambitious, they will never cut it in the NFL. Mayfields "weaknesses" make him strong in the mental aspect and that has been proven through his time in Oklahoma. Chasing a physical utopia in your QB forces you to miss half the picture of what makes a QB great.

 

See Eddie Murphy’s RAW Rocky Balboa bit.

 

Looks like Allen and Mayfield keep rising in people's minds. I have been seeing a lot of Rosen negativity online the last couple days. Makes me think a top team (probably the Jets) are floating this out there to make the Browns and Giants not want to take him. Interesting to be the #2 ranked QB for so long, then all of a sudden people start labeling you the 4th best, could drop in draft, could be the next Jay Cutler, etc. At the very least, it is interesting timing........

 

You have some faulty information:



Darnold was Mayfields equal in terms of playing under center. And then Rosen and Allen, our premier pro style QBs, were still under center only around 35% of the time. Every single one of these guys spent the vast majority of their time standing.

 

This really shouldn’t even be a debate. Mayfield is only in the discussion because he has fire in the belly and his “personality” fits in NY. I don’t give two fucks about fire in the belly and personality. I’m tired of loosing and being a door mat for the Pats. Mayfield isn’t Drew Brees and even Drew Brees got drafted in the SECOND ROUND PEOPLE!!! The hype has skyrocketed his stock but reality is that he’s a second round prospect. Drew Brees is the poster boy for short accurate passers but the success rate of FQB with those measurements is extremely low. Give me the guy that can play with the big boys any day.

 

He is a midget by NFL standards. Pennington was 6'3" and acknowledge that he had to adjust. Mayfield will have to adjust a lot more. It's an issue. He will be jostled all the time, he will be changing his arm angle all the time. He will not have an OL in front of him that dominates the competition in 95% of his games. He will not have WR, TE's and backs who 95% of the time are better than the CB, Safeties and skill players on D.

Pennington never ran from the cops, grabbed his crouch and otherwise acted like a punk. He was a mentally tough as any QB in the league. He didn't have a chip on his shoulders. The fact that he grabbed his crotch or ran from the cops or acts like a punk, or has a chip on his shoulder, has zero to do with mental toughness. It's pure drivel and conjecture. It doesn't say anything about mental toughness and professionalism one way or another. I didn't say he wasn't mentally tough just that those characteristics is made up nonsense.

Mayfield played with an allstar cast. Great OL, great backs, TE and receiver. There is no indication based on OK history that he did anything more than another great OK recruit at QB would do. They have a great program and play in a mediocre division. There's a reason OK football has won 10 or more games 15 out of the last 20 years. The last OK QB taken was Landry Jones. OK had a 12 and 2 record with him in 2011. He went in the 3rd round.

They all have issues. Andrew Luck isn't in this draft. Mayfield shouldn't be a 1st round pick. FYI that doesn't mean that Rosen or Allen should be.

Again you are looking at competition that isn't equal and is going to be vastly different at the next level. All of these guys are high risk to fail at the next level. I'm very aware that Rosen and Darnold haven't proven they can be franchise QB's at the next level and Allen has shown almost nothing to indicate that he can be. That doesn't change the fact that Mayfield size matters. That doesn't change the fact that all of these guys have to be projected at the next level and there's a reason we don't have consensus on this class of QB's. Lots of question marks.

 

WB, you seem to be clinging to the running from cops and crotch grabbing like it's the reason people are high on him. That's a media driven narrative.

And yes, he has a gargantuan chip.

But the guy is a football guy, he has overcome adversity that few NCAA players ever encounter and overcome.

He walked on to not one but two different college teams and was not only successful but went to the CFB and also won the Heisman.

That is so unheard of that it's worthy of repeating multiple times. He's not tall. But QBs of his stature have been successful in this league with the same problem, it's not insurmountable.

He's the guy I would want leading the team. The real problem is that we're talking about the Jets, who have not handled the QB position well since... well, ever.

If the Jets take him at 3, it will be the Jets that ruin him, not a height scale or a police report.

 

Like anything else analytics can be done well or badly. For example, now that the Browns are out of the picture, the Eagles are the most analytically-minded team and they just won the SB. Also speaking as someone who knows how analytics work, I have no idea what the Browns were doing. The numbers show that a franchise QB is more important than anything else, so it makes no sense that they passed on Wentz. The numbers also show that tanking doesn't work nearly as well in football as baseball, and it's stupid to draft prospects based on combine stats. But Sashi Brown did both (hello Corey Coleman).

 

This poll honestly shocks me.

1. Mayfield
   73 vote(s)
   64.0%
2. *
   Allen
   41 vote(s)
   36.0%

All I can think is Jets fans see the similarities to Hackenberg (lack of accuracy) and are scared off by it? Allen will definitely go before Mayfield. No way the Jets pass on him if those are the 2 QB's left at #3 overall.

 

That's because most of us think that Allen has a high chance of being a bust, whereas Mayfield has a very small chance of busting.