Allen Vs Mayfield at the 3 pick - what the film shows

I was about to write more or less the same thing as I've seen this game before.

Is that "touch" I see? The WR still dropped though...LOL.

 

I didn't watch a single snap of Allen's this year - so I have no idea what he is or his upside. I did watch Mayfield in both bowl games and was extremely impressed. His size, or lack of, isn't a deal breaker for me, but, it could be for the guys making the picks. Truthfully, I won't be upset if any of the 4 QB's get picked by the Jets. IMO, none are sure-fire, can't miss QBs at the NFL level...

 

Man talk about the pot calling the kettle black!

 

You have never said a positive thing about Mayfield that I can recall...that's bias. OTOH I and NCJetfsan and others HAVE acknowledged Allen's potential and his physical attributes, but we continue to question if he can improve when faced with much better competition since he hasn't shown that against the mediocre competition he's faced so far. Frankly I would love nothing more than to have him become the next Namath, Marino, or Favre if he's a Jet, but he has real issues that you Allen supporters just seem to gloss over.

We're all guilty of bias to some degree, confirmation bias at the very least, but I own up to mine and have tried to be open minded about seeing what you all see in him, I don't get that feeling from you, and it's really aggravating to hear Kurt and you level accusations of us being anti-Allen and simply pro-Mayfield. I'm actually all about Rosen if I had my choice, but I do think Mayfield is better than Allen for the reasons I've posted ad nauseum.

We can simply agree to disagree at this point.

 

I'm 100% being a bitch. No argument there...still i'm simply exasperated by the bias.

I'm NOT an "Allen guy" I've had him 3rd since last summer. But that doesn't mean I wouldn't take him on the Jets in a heartbeat or that I don't consider him a blue chip prospect. I'm tired of hearing the Mayfield crowd completely discard him for reasons A. B. C. ,disacknowledge retorts & then do the same thing for concerns about Mayfield's game.

It's as if Allen is being dismissed b.c he poses the biggest threat to the Jets taking Mayfield if the "other 2" are off the board. And there's nothing wrong w. preferring Mayfield..but why does it have to be done in a way that completely discasts Allen? Afterall, the "Allen guys" really are just the folks who see Allen in the top 3 and/or prefer him over mayfield. At the end of the day these are 2 drastically different style prospects & whether we like it or not their stock is very similar..I don't hear the Allen folks completely dismissing Mayfield all together.

 

Who are these Mayfield fans who are doing this? Consistently, the two most egregious posters that I've seen hating on a prospect and failing to acknowledge any flaws in the prospect they like are SolidGoldBowles and LSCwhatever, both rabid Allen fans.

While I overwhelmingly think that Mayfield is the best prospect, I will root for any of the 4, as I'm sure that Colorado, Soylent and most of the other Mayfield supporters/fans will as well

I think the main problem here is that it has been so long since the Jets have had a FQB or even had chance to get one that most are just anxious/excited/pissed and have been driven nuts by the Jets repeated failures over the years. They see this as a golden opportunity to change our fortunes, but are fearful that if Mac takes the wrong QB, he will bust, or just be meh. Mayfield scares some posters because of his lack of height, playing in a spread offense, and his immaturity. Allen scares the crap out of most posters because of his lousy production in college, decision making/reading of Ds, and accuracy issues. Rosen's arrogance and concussions scare others. Ironically, most people like Darnold because of what he did in 2016 and are ignoring his issues with TOs, the hitch in his throwing motion, and the fact that he has the least experience of any of the top 4 QBs.

We've still got a month until the draft. You're a great guy and I'd hate to see you blow a gasket or have a stroke or something. Just like in much of our society, many posters here are polarized in their positions, have closed minds, and refuse to listen to other opinions. The reality is that we're probably not going to change anyone's mind. It's going to be a loooooooooooong month. I wish the draft were tomorrow.

 

Damn if you do and damn if you don't..

 

I think you may well be damned my friend

 

Okay, here’s my interpretation of what I see with Allen in the Iowa game. I offer this not as an expert assessment, but to show why I am drawing the conclusions I’ve drawn. I freely admit that I’m not an expert and may well be misinterpreting some things, but this is what my eyes are telling me:

0:10 – Allen locks onto the receiver split wide and throws to him seeming to ignore the fact that there is almost no chance for the receiver to make any yardage. Pass was on target, but I question whether he should’ve looked off and tried a different receiver. That said, the pass rusher closing on him from behind would’ve likely taken him down before he went to another option, however, Allen didn’t see him coming and so you can’t say he made the throw because that was his only option.

0:14 – Allen drops back and has decent protection, not under pressure and throws high over the receiver’s head about 20 yards down the right sideline. Bad throw.

0.20 – Allen drops back, again decent protection throws to his left after giving a glance to the middle of the field and then locking into the receiver he throws to allowing the DB to close on him and take him down immediately. Good throw, but not very good execution.

0.28 – From the 43, Allen UC, PA, rolls to his right, but rolls away from the LOS even though there was no real pressure making him do that, and continues running away from the LOS and throws off balance and across his body and way overthrows the receiver down the right sideline. Poor execution and read of the pressure and poor throw.

0.34 – Allen in the shotgun, takes the snap and looks at his intended receiver the whole way, throws across the field to his left and completes the pass, but the receiver is taken down immediately short of the first down because the DBs all read the play form Allen’s look. Good throw, poor execution.

0.44 – Allen in shotgun from his own 30 takes the snap and throws a swing pass to the receiver coming around from his right and hitting him in stride to his left. Stopped for a short gain. Good pass with touch, but Iowa sniffed it out.

0.53 – Allen from the shotgun, locks onto his receiver on the left and throws low, catchable, but not an easy catch, and even so, defenders were right there because Allen was locked onto the receiver the whole time. Meh throw, poor execution.

0.59 Allen from the shotgun takes the snap, has decent protection but decides to run back out of the pocket, and as he’s running backwards stops and throws to his receiver in the middle for a first down. Good throw, despite being off balance, but I don’t think he had to leave the pocket, and maybe he could’ve made a better play elsewhere if he didn’t create the pressure situation by leaving the pocket early. Good strong throw despite everything else.

1.08 – Allen in shotgun from Iowa 35, takes the snap and a rusher breaks through on his right, but the rest of the pocket is holding, Instead of stepping up into the protection, he ducks out and almost gets taken down but escapes and runs to his right and finally throws it away. Good decision to throw it away instead of forcing it, but should’ve stayed in the pocket in the first place.

1.15 – Allen again in shotgun from Iowa 35, 3rd and 7, takes the snap, protection is good, and this time Allen stays in the pocket but again locks onto his receiver in the right and while he makes a good throw, DBs take him down short of the 1st down with no gain after catch because they could read Allen’s eyes the whole time. Good throw, poor execution.

1.23 – Allen from shotgun, 4th and 1 from Iowa 35, Allen fakes handoff and keeps it running to his left for the 1st down. Not much to say…good execution.

1.29 – Allen UC, from Iowa 26, 2nd an 9, protection breaks down, and Allen finds a seam to run up away from pressure and then throws on the run into the end zone well over the head of the receiver. Good job escaping pressure and looking upfield, but poor throw.

1.38 – Allen in shotgun from Iowa 36, 2nd and 19, takes snap and locks onto his receiver on the left, completes pass but receiver is dropped immediately after 9 yard pickup.

1.45 – Allen in shotgun, 3rd and 10 from Iowa 27, takes snap and protection breaks immediately forcing him to try an escape back and to his left where he’s almost taken down, but fights off the tackle and runs back to his right under pursuit, but does get clear. Instead of throwing it away when he had that chance he gets sacked. Good perseverance to fight off tackler, but then panicked and lost his awareness of the situation.

2.00 – Allen UC, 1st and 10 from their 38, fakes handoff and drops back with decent protection, rolls to his right and locks onto his receiver on the right at the 41, and throws off his back foot, completing the pass, but receiver has no chance for YAC because defenders read Allen’s eyes.

2.09 – Allen from shotgun from their 45, 3rd and 3, takes snap, fakes handoff, and then keeps it running to his left a step and then rather than trying to keep running to his left to open space, he cuts up into the line and is sacked for a loss. Busted play?

2.23 – Allen in shotgun from Iowa 46, 1st and 10, Allen takes snap and protection is decent although a delayed blitz comes from the left. Rather than step back and up into the pocket, Allen runs backwards away from the blitzer and eventually does an awkward “shovel pass” out of bounds to avoid a big sack. Poor decision-making.

2.30 – Allen in shotgun from their 38, 2nd and 29, Allen takes the snap, looks once to his left and then decides to run up the middle and is taken down at the LOS. Busted play? Never tried to look anywhere else before running.

2.37 – Allen in shotgun from their 38, 3rd and 28, Allen takes snap and fakes handoff to RB, and is immediately taken down. Poor blocking.

2.43 – Allen UC from their 26, takes snap, good protection, drops back and fires to his receiver at their 42 for completion. Good strong throw into a tight window.

2.49 – Allen UC from their 45, 2nd and 5, Allen takes the snap and rolls back and to his right and then throws to his receiver who has to come back for the ball short of the first down and is taken down short of first down. Allen could’ve stepped up into the pocket and given himself more time and options, but is able to avoid being tackled and picks up the first down. Allen could’ve stepped up into the pocket and bought himself time to make a better throw, but instead threw on the run and not very accurately, although ball was caught.

2.59 – Allen UC from Iowa 37, 2nd and 1, takes snap and drops straight back, good protection, throws to the endzone down the middle but overthrows receiver, possibly on purpose since receiver had two defenders all over him. Could’ve been pass interference. Hard to tell if he purposely threw it away out of the endzone, or he overthrew it.

3.09 – Allen in shotgun, 1st and 10 from their 31, play action, rolls right and backwards to his right and throws 3 yard pass to receiver who is taken down right away. Allen could’ve turned up into the pocket to buy more time to find a better target, but went with the first option for small gain.

3.16 – Allen UC, 2nd and 3, from their 37, Allen takes snap and throws a swing pass to his left and overthrows the receiver. Poor pass.

3.20 – Allen in shotgun, 3rd and 3 from their 37, takes snap and locks onto receiver to his left and throws a pass to him for first down, but receiver is taken down immediately.

3.29 – Allen in shotgun, 2nd and 3 from Iowa 49, Allen takes snap, has decent protection, and throws to receiver on right, but low and incomplete.

3.36 – Allen in shotgun, 3rd and 3 from Iowa 49, takes snap, decent protection, locks onto his receiver running out to the left and throws behind him, receiver gets his hands on ball but can’t hold on.

3.46 – Allen in shotgun, 2nd and 10 from their 12, takes snap and drops back rolling to his right and completes a jump throw to receiver for a 3 yard gain, but could’ve stepped up into pocket and bought more time to make a different play.

3.50 – Allen in shotgun, 3rd and 5 from their 17, Allen drops back and under some pressure throws to his first read and overthrows him. He could’ve thrown to another receiver a little more to the left who was breaking open, but he never looked at him.

4.00 – Allen UC, 1st and 10 from Iowa 36, takes snap and fakes handoff, gets pressure and steps up into pocket and throws a beautiful pass to receiver in the endzone, hitting him in the hands in stride, but receiver bobbles it and drops it. Best pass all game.

End of Part 1, to be continued

 

Part 2,

4.15 – Allen in shotgun, 3rd and 8 from Iowa 34, Allen takes snap and fakes handoff and keeps it and runs forward for 2 yards. Busted play? He never looked to pass, but hard to imagine it was a designed run.

4.21 – Allen UC, 2nd and 9 from their 33, takes snap, play action, and rolls right, locking onto his receiver, and throws wide out of bounds. Poor throw.

4.28. – Allen in shotgun, 3rd and 9 from their 33, takes snap, decent protection, Allen stays in pocket, looks to his left, and then throws a strike down the middle for first down. Second best throw of the game.

4.35 – Allen UC, 1st and 10 from their 47, takes snap, fakes handoff, and drops back, decent protection, locks onto his receiver in the flat and throws low, but caught, but receiver has no chance to run. No gain.

4.45 – Allen in shotgun, 2nd and 10 from their 47, Allen takes snap, decent protection, drops back looks left and then throws down the middle/left for 20 yard completion. Another good pass and execution.

4.51 – Allen UC, 1st and 10 from Iowa 30, Allen takes snap, paly action, rolls to his right and back, and is pursued by rusher, and keeps running back away from LOS and eventually heaves it away downfield. Instead of rolling right, should’ve stepped back up into pocket.

4.59 – Allen in shotgun, 3rd and 4 from Iowa 24, takes snap, decent protection, drops back an locks onto his receiver, then takes a half step back and throws off balance to the receiver and it’s picked off. Seemed to have felt “phantom pressure” and panicked.

5.27 – Allen in shotgun, 1st and 10 from their 17, takes snap, drops straight back, decent protection, and throws high to receiver on right sideline.

5.32 – Allen in shotgun, 2nd and 10 from their 17, takes snap, drops back, decent protection, looks to the middle/left and then comes back to the TE at the LOS and completes pass for no gain. Good touch, but no gain.

5.38 – Allen in shotgun, 3rd and 9, takes snap, drops back, decent protection, and locks onto his receiver on the left, and throws good pass for completion and first down.

5.45 – Allen in shotgun, 1st and 10 from their 30, takes snap, drops straight back, decent protection, looks left and then throws to the right for first down. Good execution all the way around.

5.52 – Allen in shotgun, 1st and 10 from their 44, takes snap and drops straight back, decent protection, looks left and throws to the right but too high, incomplete, Good execution, poor pass.

5.59 – Allen in shotgun, 2nd and 10 from their 44, takes snap, drops straight back, decent protection, but as pocket collapses he steps up this time and throws hard down the middle and is almost picked off. Had he thrown it with some loft and led the receiver, might’ve gone for a big play.

6.07 – Allen in shotgun, 3rd and 10 from their 44, takes snap and drops back and then as pocket collapses he rolls right and keeps looking downfield but eventually tucks it and runs for first down. Good execution by Allen on broken play.

6.16 – Allen in shotgun, 1st and 10 from Iowa 45, takes snap and drops straight back, decent protection, locks onto his receiver to the right and throws three yard gain, taken down right away.

6.21 – Allen in shotgun, 2nd and 8 from Iowa 40, takes snap drops straight back, decent protection, locks onto his receiver on the left and throws low incomplete.

6.29 – Allen in shotgun, 3rd and 8 from Iowa 40, takes snap, pocket collapses, Allen throws weak screen pass off back foot and is intercepted.


So there you have it from my POV. Iowa is a good, but not great – Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State level – team. Allen’s OL did okay, but he didn’t help himself much with his decision-making. This is what I saw, but maybe I’m not seeing things properly. But now you know why I’ve made the comments I’ve made about him.

 

Don't know if it's been mentioned but Allen only threw 13 screen passes last year which will surely alter the stats. That said I am still a Baker guy. Darnold first but that ain't happening

 

Allen makes throws I rarely have seen ANY QB make, and he's mobile. Baker Mayfield needs to start each play 7 yards behind the line of scrimmage, and half his throws in the highlight video are to receivers with no one near them. However, Baker Mayfield makes excellent quick decisions. Seems to know exactly what he's doing on every play. He's a winner and clearly an overachiever. I worry about Allen's QB IQ, and why he went to Wyoming.Tough call.

In the poll I picked Allen. He's a rare specimen, appears to be a good kid, but mainly I think the Jets' plan is set-up better for Josh Allen. I don't see Baker Mayfield accepting a redshirt, and I think paying McCown 10 million is so that he can fully mentor a guy like Josh Allen, who physically is similar to himself. Bridgewater is the insurance policy on a guy like Allen, not Mayfield.

 

Rosen and Mayfield are my preferred choices. I would include Darnold but I think he will go first.

 

Drew Brees played at Purdue and he was pretty good there. That means Big Ten and inclement weather in Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Indiana and Wisconsin. Yes, he plays in a dome for 8 games but i'm pretty sure there are a few outdoor too. He played pretty well in San Diego and they traded him away. That means New Orleans thought enough about his talent to make that trade and a few years later Super Bowl.

 

For a while I've been really worried about Allen's seeming similarities to Hackenberg, but I'm starting to see him as a superior prospect than this and have a little less concern if they do draft him. My preference is still for Mayfield, but I'm more open to Allen.

With that being said, even though Allen is a better prospect than Hackenberg, similarities exist and I'm very interested in what Mac decides should Darnold and Rosen go 1/2. Will he see him as a better version of his ideal style of QB (ideal size/arm strength) or go the opposite way with a guy who doesn't have the measurables but been exceptionally productive?

 

I think you have it right NC. I've clearly shown my preference for Mayfield and documented it well going back to November. At the end of the day, who ever the Jets draft, I will be their fan, and that includes Allen who I believe to be the worst option for the Jets.

The factor that none of us have in forming our opinions is the ability to meet these guys, shake their hand, look them in the eye, and get a feel for the human being we are standing across from. This is the difference between us and the people actually working in the NFL. Anyone here who claims to know the true character of any of these guys is full of shit. We form opinions based on what we see, what evidence we are able to collect (which is different on a poster by poster basis), and based on what it is we personally value in football players.

I think the threads and debates on the various draft prospects really does a good job of highlighting our different worldviews. At the end of the day, this activity is entertainment for all of us, and we will all ride and die together with the QB that Mac selects. And his selection will be 100% devoid of one factor: our opinions.

So everyone should relax, realize this is supposed to be fun and not turn this into a pseudo politics issue, and enjoy the ride.

 

Got another one.