https://www.cover1.net/nfl-draft-analytic-breakdown-josh-allens-completion-percentage/ COMMENTARY NFL Draft Analytic Breakdown: Josh Allen’s Completion Percentage by Dan Lavoie 01/19/2018 Nov 11, 2017; Colorado Springs, CO, USA; Wyoming Cowboys quarterback Josh Allen (17) prepares to pass the ball in the second quarter against the Air Force Falcons at Falcon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports Sixty percent. Every year, this number is tossed around when quarterbacks are being discussed ahead of the NFL Draft. The art of identifying a franchise quarterback is so mystical that it almost seems foolhardy to suggest that a simple yes/no question can determine who will or won’t be a successful franchise starter. That being said, few in the NFL had a better career than Bill Parcells, and this was one of his golden rules for selecting a franchise quarterback: He has to complete more than 60 percent of his passes in college. This is relevant in 2018 because of one draft darling: Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen. Standing six-foot-five, 240 pounds and wielding a howitzer on his right arm, Allen has draft reporters (and anonymous scouts) wide-eyed with his athletic potential. There’s a problem though: Allen has never completed 60 percent of his passes in college and, in fact, his career completion percentage is only 56.1. At this point in his college career, Allen has played with inconsistent mechanics, leading to bad throw trajectories from time to time. these are back-to-back throws from Josh Allen against Hawaii. misses high on a simple screen pass, then leaves his shoulders wide open on a throw to his left that should've been a pick six. woof. pic.twitter.com/LCiERy4nFx — Jordan Zirm (@clevezirm) January 2, 2018 The rule holds up. The greatest quarterbacks since 2000 who never threw for 60 percent in any of their college seasons: Josh McCown, Tyrod Taylor, Shaun Hill, Derek Anderson, Brian Hoyer, and Kyle Boller. This rule doesn’t suggest to you that anyone who completes 61 percent of his passes in a season will be a star, but it does help you eliminate a wide swath of rough so you can keep sifting for diamonds. From 2000 to 2017, the best quarterbacks to complete their college career with a completion percentage of less than 58 were Ken Dorsey, J.P. Losman, Jay Cutler, Kyle Boller, Matthew Stafford, Patrick Ramsey, and Tyrod Taylor. Most of these quarterbacks improved their completion percentage year-over-year and finished with a season near or above the magical 60 percent threshold. Allen only started two seasons before entering the NFL Draft, and he saw his percentage tick from 56.0 to 56.3 in that time. For comparison’s sake, Lamar Jackson, another controversial prospect in this draft, also has a career completion percentage below 58 percent. But in three seasons, he’s improved from 54.7 to 56.2 to 60.4. Some may suggest that Allen’s numbers are depressed in 2017 because of a weakened supporting cast (most of his top targets graduated after 2016). It’s true that he’s playing with several freshmen, but in terms of drop rate, Allen’s receivers only dropped 4.8 percent of his passes this season. Target drop passes percentages: Lamar Jackson – 8.5% Baker Mayfield – 8.0% Josh Rosen – 7.5% Mason Rudolph – 6.6% Josh Allen – 4.8% Sam Darnold – 4.3%#SupportingCast — J.R. (@JReidDraftScout) December 22, 2017 Among the top quarterback prospects, only Sam Darnold had a better drop rate from his receivers, while Baker Mayfield and Jackson had more than eight percent of their passes dropped. Another explanation for Allen’s poor numbers is the pro-style offense he plays in, which gives him fewer easy throws. That was the argument used to prop up Connor Cook two years ago, but Cook was a mid-round pick and remains relegated to the third string behind E.J. Manuel. Allen also doesn’t help himself, choosing to force difficult throws when he would be more successful checking down or scrambling for a few yards. The NFL Draft process, with its exhibition games, player interviews, metric workouts, and team visits, still has to play out. But when April comes around, teams with a Parcells influence will have Allen removed from their draft boards due to his passing metrics. Even so, it only takes one team to fall in love with his physical abilities and make him their franchise cornerstone. Despite his raw ability, history indicates they’re making a mistake. EVERYBODY Crying how allens receivers dropped the ball causing allens completion rate to suffer... Just look @ Mayfield.
that would only work if i pretend to know everything which i don't. I've "admitted" to not knowing a ton of stuff on the forums already. Sadly i cna't say the same to you, or the fact you feel the need to "attack the poster" because you can't "debate the logic" But sorry if you don't' grasp very basic concepts of the NFL, nothing i can do about that since you are too stubborn to listen to anything. Maybe if you actually listened to reason, you could make better posts actually talking about football
I just love the Allen vs Mayfield debate as they are the poster children for old school scouting vs analytics. It's going to be fun to see how they turn out.
This is a nice example of touch from Allen, I’d like to see more. Edit: someone get me a compilation of Josh Allen touch throws and you may be able to draw me in a little more. As @legler82 pointed out, Mahomes, Darnold and Mayfield all share incredible touch and they’re 3 of my favorite QBs I’ve watched, so maybe that’s what draws my eye most when I watch these guys.
Kurt, I always appreciate your posts, even when I don't agree with them, which is rare. This is one of those times. While I do agree that Comp % is not the same as ball placement, it's very hard to measure and quantify "ball placement" When a QB throws beyond - or even behind - a receiver, one can make the claim, "Well he threw it where the receiver was supposed to be". or when the ball thrown high we might say "He threw it high because he knew his receiver could out jump the defender", and unless we sit with the QB and watch the game film and have him point this out, we'll never really know. Or maybe these are just bad throws. What I DO know is that I've seen Mayfield throw pinpoint passes, and I've seen Allen throw some real stinkers. Until I see Allen - in game conditions - consistently throw on target passes, I'm going say he has something to prove in this regard. And it's funny, because you're willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, assuming that he'll get his mechanics worked out and all will be good - and I know you know that the issue isn't just mechanics with him, it's timing and anticipation which is a whole 'nother animal - and yet you cast serious doubt on Mayfield being able to hit "tight windows" when he's actually demonstrated the ability to do just that. And wile you and others keep pointing to Allen's ability to hit "tight windows", I see that as a warning flag: He's forcing throws into dangerous areas that he gets away with at the level of competition he's faced so far, but when he gets up against the NFL, those "windows" are going to slam shut much faster. Moreover, his low interception number was also against much weaker competition, even by college standards. I'm sure, over time, he'll learn to adjust to the faster speeds, but I see a guy who has lived with the belief that his arm can beat any defense, and teh NFL graveyard is littered with guys who believed the same thing. I still prefer Rosen in all of this, but if he's gone by #3, give me the guy who has actually done the things he needs to do, not the guy who we can only speculate can.
I actually like them both as prospects. Completely different players in terms of size, college career, playing style, and personality....but I can see each of them fitting in the NFL. It's an interesting crop of QB prospects.
Just to clarify those three (Mahomes, Darnold and Mayfield are able to throw "off platform" with touch or velocity w/o sacrificing accuracy. Allen struggles to be accurate when he is off platform and throwing with velocity.
Mayfield was great in that game, up until he took a knee in the ribs at the beginning of the second half. He, nor anyone on OK, complained about that or used it as an excuse, but it's clear from the change in game plan that he was playing hurt. Still, he almost pulled it out.
https://www.milehighreport.com/2018/3/24/17159034/baker-mayfield-has-fourth-highest-qbase-ever Here is how QBASE ranked each of the top quarterbacks in this draft class: Baker Mayfield (1480 QBASE) Lamar Jackson (656 QBASE) Josh Rosen (623 QBASE) Sam Darnold (412 QBASE) Mason Rudolph (343 QBASE) Luke Falk (277 QBASE) Kyle Lauletta (273 QBASE) Josh Allen (-83 QBASE) Philip Rivers (1,964 QBASE) Carson Palmer (1,916 QBASE) Donovan McNabb (1,799 QBASE) Baker Mayfield (1,480 QBASE) Russell Wilson (1,288 QBASE) Peyton Manning (1,279 QBASE) Marcus Mariota (1,277 QBASE) Byron Leftwich (1,216 QBASE) Aaron Rodgers (1,216 QBASE) Ben Roethlisberger (1,211 QBASE) So they are saying he's a HOF type player essentially. Analytics like this could get thrown out the window if Mayfield doesnt have a great career
The interesting thing is that Mayfield scores better both ways - Old school Parcell method and new metrics/analytics.
All are good, but only 4/5 out of the 10 are HOF bound right now... I think it’s good to at least try to find analytics like this because judging purely based on what you see with your eyes sure as hell doesn’t work.
You put Rosen, Darnold or Lamar Jackson on that Sooners team and playing without a serious rib injury like Mayfield had, they would've beaten Georgia. There, fix it for ya.
I'm more Allen than Mayfield for sure but I'm really not an "Allen guy". Still whether I am an "Allen guy" or not doesn't change the fact he struggles with accuracy throwing off platform with velocity. That's just what I see on tape; I wouldn't deny it just because I liked the prospect.
He took a knee to the rib. He didn't break his ribs or anything of that nature. Georgia linebackers kicked his ass in his 2nd half, he couldn't scramble and the coach took the ball out of his hands. Georgia got to him with regulation. Roquan Smith was freaking all over the field. If he was hurt, he should've been taken off the field because he was hurting the team.
you gotta have balance no doubt about. Nothing wrong with using your eyes and using #s to back up what you see. But thats pretty good company though, no?
