You give up the 1 and move on. It seems like the NFL is starting to be like the NBA with draft picks.
Giving up a high number one pick is giving up a likely starter over two contracts (i.e., 8 years or more). There is a chance that this player might be a bust, but is the probability of that greater than the probability that Rodgers succeeds in crushing Mahomes, Burrow, Josh Allen, etc., in the one year he plays for the Jets? Furthermore, Rodgers is getting older, slower, and more injury prone, as last year proved. Do the Jets really want to throw away important pieces of their long-term future for a one-year rental that might not even make it through the year? This is for those of us who remember the Favre year, and the Jets just gave up a 3rd round pick for Favre, not number 13 in the first round.
Listen carefully to this interview. Wingo is guessing, just like all of us. He doesn't have any idea about the compensation. He said thinks it won't be more than 1st round pick. Neither do I. He thinks it does not behoove the pack to drag it past the draft. Neither do I, but the draft is more than a month away. The same guy who told him the deal was done on Monday now thinks it will be done next week. It's basically like the opinions on this board. Some think the deal will be done very quickly, some (like yours truly) think it could get done quickly but could drag up until the draft before GB caves. He does have a source, and he did know Aaron informed the teams, which was great, but he reported that info incorrectly as the deal being done, which wasn't the case. Still, he got one part of it right: Rodgers decided on the Jets, which was a major part of the equation. Now his source basically confirmed nothing is done between the teams. Wingo's guess now is as good as yours. When the deal gets done, we will know pretty quickly. Until then, you, me, Wingo, and the rest of the fans can just guess. And that's exactly what we will keep doing!
In Wingo's second video he told Jets fans to be patient and play the long game. He felt the Jets would sign Rodgers by next week. He didn't just suddenly change his story.
As a side-benefit of this crazy negotiation scenario, the Jets organization has to be gaining some incredible job experience, juggling the AR show, scouting, free agency, the draft, contracts, etc... all at-once. In a bizarre way, this could be helping create a solid organization, for once. As much displeasure some feel for JD, he's shown himself to be a smart trader, & not an easy pushover. And leading the organization, through a crazy time like this, can only help him gain more respect among his peers. Which can only help the Jets. As an aside, being among those that would like to see if good coaching, & having a mentor, can help turn on Zach's light, I am so happy (if they don't move him before next season) that we'll have an opportunity to get a definitive read on his viability as a fully-functional NFL QB. A benefit of a 1-2yr rental. As much as I was initially pretty frigid about Hackett's hiring, the more I've read about him, & heard from those that've played for, or worked with him, the more I'm comfortable that he's a significant upgrade over what's his name. As much as I was against bringing AR aboard, if the compensation package is reasonable, I think there's some light ahead, if things play out decently. So, here's a brewski for JD... reel 'em in, hombre. .
We only had to give up a 3rd rounder for Favre because the Packers knew that if they demanded too much, we'd walk away and stick with Pennington. This time, they know Douglas can't walk away and hope to still have his job in a year from now, so they're trying to get more out of us.
This is the heart of the matter as far as I'm concerned. There's all this talk about people debating which side has the other over the proverbial barrel in this negotiation, but I'd have to say that it's the Packers operating from the position of power here. Mark Murphy knows that the reaction from the fans in attendance at the first game at MetLife stadium will be one of the most toxic we've ever seen a home crowd have towards their own team perhaps in the history of sports if they trot Zach Wilson back out there as the starting QB, and he knows that that is something that Joe Douglas absolutely cannot have happen. With that being our only option at the moment (and with other options dwindling in number by the day), the option of it either being Rodgers or Wilson out there for the first game is very much on the table. If I'm Mark Murphy, I'm digging my heels in because there's no way that Joe Douglas can allow Wilson to take the first snap of the season, and especially so after Rodgers has indicated that he "intends" to play for the Jets this season. If Wilson goes out there, the season, as well as Joe Douglas' tenure here, is over before the offense even takes the first snap of the season.
I was trying to put myself in the shoes of JD and GB's GM, and of course I don't know all the info, but I am JD, I am sitting still until the draft approaches. Look at the picks we have in this draft relevant to the discussion: Round 1, Pick 13 overall Round 2, Pick 43 overall Round 3, Pick 74 overall #13 is probably an starter at Tackle, one of the big 3. This pick stays with the Jets. If I am JD, I am not moving this pick, period. Of course GB wants that picks, but I guess they will just have to fuck themselves. JD I know will not be giving it away, not matter what. #74 is a good pick, but is not something that would entice GB significantly to the point where they would be compelled to make a deal before the draft to get that pick. That brings us to #43. That is a damn good pick. Very good chance to get a starter for 4 years on a rookie deal. I feel it will be too hard to pass up for the GB. And for the Jets, if GB gets nothing in this draft, we can use this pick for sure. That is why I think when push comes to shove, when draft is approaching, GB will want that pick and cave in. We give them the pick and a conditional next year. A Favre like pick. I think this is more than fair. JD just need to wait them out. Don't offer good players, don't offer 1st. 2nd round pick this year, and something conditional next year. Yes, we may have to wait a month. But at this point, it does not really matter. We need AR before OTAs, and GB will want #43 when it gets closer.
Well, let's examine the facts. His story was that the deal was fully done on Monday. It wasn't. Then that the deal is 99% done, is going to happen (as in it hasn't happened yet, so it is fact not done), but "may drag into next week". Now he is saying AR may be here next week, but might take until the draft. Let's just be reasonable here for minute and stick to the facts. Wingo has a source. The source told him a fact: Arod agreed to play for the Jets. That's it. That's the only fact about this trade Wingo knows. Anything else is an opinion. Yeah could be next week. Could be until the draft. Could be June. I agree likely sooner, but at this point accept the fact Wingo is just as clueless about it as we are. There are no more facts he can give us.
One last bit of 'leverage' the Jets have, I haven't really seen mentioned... the behemoth NFL money machine. The NFL wants this deal settled pronto. Having this drag out too long, also puts their broadcast & advertising partners on-hold, as far as scheduling, promotions, travel plans, production hiring, etc. Waiting is gonna cost lots of folks, big bucks. (Speculation) This will play out, at the latest, on draft day #1, where at #13, the trade will be announced. They'll swap #13 & #15 picks (the Packers will be able to spin that they got a #1 pick), then the rest of the compensation package... perhaps a conditional '24 3rd-rounder, that can go to a #2 if AR plays in '24. And maybe Corey Davis thrown in for a '24 5th-rounder from GB. That said, I think very soon the NFL is gonna get involved, behind the scenes, pushing for a deal. And wouldn't be surprised if the deal happens this week. .
It's not a question of turning on Zach's light. It's a question of whether Zach can completely reinvent himself the way Josh Allen did. I can't think of anybody else who has pulled that off, maybe Kurt Warner although the story with him is that everything was there beforehand but nobody thought his weird throwing motion was going to work in the NFL and as a UDFA he didn't get any kind of deep look until Mike Martz came along and then only when Trent Green went down before camp with a season-ending injury.
I think the actual trade compensation is already settled. My guess is its a 3rd this year, a conditional next year and Cory Davis and maybe Whitehead too. I want to make clear that this is just a guess, but JD is too shrewd a negotiator to overpay and he knows that, with AR's contract there are no other takers. He also knows that AR has a guaranteed contract and that GB will have to pay AR $100 million over the next 2 years if sticks around and all for a player that they don't want and who would become a major distraction if he was there. I think the main holdup is the $60 million payment that Rodgers is due from GB between 3/17 and week 1. I think the Jets want GB to pay all or most of it to AR and GB is resisting. They don't really have a choice here as they definitely don't want AR back and they also don't want to pay him $100 million, but they have no choice if the deal doesn't go through. Now, GB could drag this out, but (i) they want AR gone and (ii) they want a pick in this year's draft and if they wait until after the draft to do the deal they don't get that. They had to wait until after Friday because the earliest the payment could be made was be yesterday. That's why Wengo is saying he thinks the deal gets done this coming week. GB isn't going to be happy, but the Jets are the only game in town.
This is a possibility perhaps, but I doubt it. We need a starting tackle. Badly. We missed out on one in Free Agency. Duane Brown at this point is not a starter. Last year he was rated by pff 69 out of 81. Yes, he was injured, but I don't know how much of his performance had to do with injury and how much with age decline. When we signed him he was a durable average tackle, though aging and showing decline. Now he is further aged, was injured, and showed much more decline likely due to combination of age and injury. IF we bring him back, he is at best a back-up. Becton also cannot be relied on. The guy hasn't played in two years and could not get through the training camp without being out for the season. Then you got guys like Mitchell, who played OK for where he was drafted, but was rated 71 out 81, then was injured twice, including season ending. This is a depth guy at best now. So, we need a good starting caliber Tackle. Heck, we may need two, but at the very least 1 solid one. We need to get one in the draft. We may get lucky and have a big 3 at #13. If we swap the picks even only 2 spots, that probably means we do not get one. So, I think #13 will be untouched.
Anton Harrison is likely to be available at 20, maybe 23 or 24. Nobody is smart enough to figure out whether Skoronski, Johnson and Broderick Jones are better than Harrison. Darnell Wright and Dawand Jones will also be available in the 20's, maybe even the 2nd round. This is a *great* draft to trade down and still get a day 1 worthy OT. The benefits of doing that are likely to be another 2nd round pick or maybe a 3rd and 5th. The Jets should look very hard at the trade down options given the guys they have cherry-picked recently have gotten hurt and badly damaged in-season depth in the process. The Jets could swap picks with the Packers in a Rodgers deal and still trade down to add much needed talent and depth to the roster.
It's like that in every draft. Of course other guys could turn out to be better. They can also turn out to be bad. There is a reason why top 3 are consensus top 3, with a pretty big drop after: you feel a lot more comfortable with one of these as a starter this year than with the rest of the guys.
