NJ, I haven't checked into the other positions, but these contracts are not reasonable: There is literally DT in the NFL that is not on their rookie deal in a 4 year deal making $4 million a year or less... Clinton McDonald of Tampa Bay. I thinks Snacks would command a much bigger payday to extend for four years. Somehow the Jags got Sen'Derrick Marks for 4 years, $18 million but he is an outlier. you would have to give probably $21+ million for a player of Harrison's reputation before he thinks about signing. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/defensive-tackle/ Ellis, there's no way he signs that low. I know he's been a backup, but it would be completely unprecedented in the current NFL cap structure. DTs just make way too much to make that happen. Just sharing some info.
I think you are on to something with Snacks and what it will cost to keep him. As good as Ellis is, he has been a backup and may not get more than $3 mil per year unless Rex Ryan makes a play for him. I like Ellis a lot but I do not know that other NFL teams appreciate how good he can be as a starter.
Remember that value changes over time and it is based on way more than a player's skill and motor (though those things should certainly determine whether a player is worth keeping or not.) You have to look at how other players at the same position are being paid AND you have to look at the overall salary cap. So, for example, if the salary cap increases more than was expected, players across the board will be paid more than they would have in the past, but that doesn't mean anyone is being "overpaid" necessarily. Increasing the salary cap is, in part, intended to increase the average salary of every NFL player. I think Wilkerson's future contract will be determined much more by JJWatt's current contract and the future of other similar positions (Quinn?, etc.) than by anything he does on the football field. Expect him to get less than Watt, but Wilk will NOT get less than $11 million annually. Salaries are going up, not down.
It depends on the players skills and the demand for the skillset they posses and how many players are free agents in a given year at their position and the talent level of those other players compared to the player in question. This year TE is pretty thin in the free agent market in terms of talent once you get past Thomas and that factor alone elevates what kind of contract a player with positive skills will get. In the case of of the TE you chose his injury history will more than likely effect the length of his contract and/or the guaranteed money on that contract and not necessarily the dollar amount of the contract. The thing about NFL contracts is you can sign a 7 year 200 million dollar deal but, depending on how the contract is written and how the money is assigned to be paid out, you can be cut after the first year with no cap hit and no money owed (this of course assumes there was no signing bonus paid, if there was a signing bonus that is prorated out over either 4 or 5 years, I forget which, and if a player is cut then that remaining prorated amount advances to the current year cap if cut prior to June 1st and the following years cap if cut after June 1st.) It gets complicated. But here's the thing when you talk about free agent signings, dollar amounts, etc. You can't do it if you ignore the future years cap effect of the contract. For example this year the Jets figure to have 48M in free cap space, next year they project to have 71M in cap space..sounds good right? Except the 48M this year is with 54 players under contract and the 71M only has 34 players under contract, which is 17 short of the 51 and of those 17 missing players are Wilkerson, Coples, Chris Ivory, Demario Davis, Richardson and Quigley. You have to look at the cap implications of every move you make. It's easy to bring in FA's if you just look at one year, but you have to also look at the down the road implications of those signings. And yes, cap space does disappear in a hurry.
There is a lot of talk on either the Ravens sites or the Texans (I don't recall which off hand and I'm too short on time to look it up again) but they are talking up Ellis a lot on there and there were come links indicating it's just not talk on their board.
I'm aware of the things you point out in your first two paragraphs, as well as the third. The thing is, my example still works, because those big name players contracts are more likely to have impact on future seasons than the second tier types I advocated signing. Like you, I also had a number of 2 and 3-year contracts. One thing you forgot to mention, is that the cap is likely to rise for 2016. Coples, Ivory, and Quigley may not be here in 2016. For that matter, if Mac can't get Mo signed, Mo might not be here either (perish the thought).
True, all of those guys may not be there in 2016..the point is none of those guys have contracts that are included in the 71 million estimated cap space....aka you're extension of Mo, if you assume 11 per year even cap hit, takes that 71 million down to 60 million and reduces the free roster space from 17 open spaces to 16....so now instead of 71 for 17 open spaces you have 60M for 16 open spaces, or an average of 3.75Mm per open slot. This is why I say you can't ignore the future implications of your pick signings, it has to be part of the equation to keep it realistic. It's easy to plug X's and O's in a single season confine, much more complex to do so when you have to think and 3 and 4 year windows.
No, it doesn't. In the NFL, yes, it does, but for the purposes of making a point on a fan board, it doesn't. If anything, your comments just further support the point I was making that there isn't as much cap space there as many posters think there is. I don't care that much about players contracts. I have more than enough to think about.
Actually nope, my scenario had more than enough money for the following two years at least according the the cap sites calculations.
I may not be reading this correctly, but from what I can tell, you're adding the Mo contract extension incorrectly. He's already on the books for $7M this season, a number that is already factored into our salary cap room. If we extend him to a $12M/yr deal, that should only add $5M to the current year's cap number unless we move money around into different types of bonuses, which is where I typically get lost. But to say that we'd be taking that $11-12M off of our current cap space doesn't make any sense. At least to me...
It depends on how the contract is broken down, you could easily take 12M off this years salary cap if you front loaded his deal to make the following years more cap friendly, say for example you give him a 5 year deal of 55M, 11 per year, and instead of a signing bonus you agree to pay him 19M this year in lieu. that would leave a 9M cap hit in the last 4 years of his contract instead of 11 M over the last 4 years of his contract. Not saying that's what he was doing, but it could be done that way.
Yes it does, the point being if you're going to do a full off season 'realistic' mock then you HAVE to consider the future year implications or it's not realistic.
NCJetsFan, thanks for the hypothetical breakdown / analysis. But I would not pay $5.25 M for Matt Moore. You're not winning anything with him. Might as well stick with Geno in that case. I'd rather put that cash towards reeling in a big time CB, WR, or RB.
That's a bit misleading though because it is calculated differently. Cap floor is cash spend so something like a signing bonus is a one off hit rather than spread over the length of the contract. Teams have a bit more wiggle room with the cap floor.
