A Positive Viewpoint on the Jets' Future

https://jetsxfactor.com/2020/12/01/...-jets-offense-in-20-3-loss-to-miami-dolphins/

Key advanced metrics for New York Jets offense in 20-3 loss to Miami Dolphins
By
Michael Nania
-
12/01/2020

Exciting numbers from Mekhi Becton and Denzel Mims highlight the silver linings from an ugly performance by the New York Jets offense.

Mekhi Becton is back to full health and red-hot
After appearing a bit rusty in his first few starts back from a shoulder injury, Becton has looked healthy and dominant over his past couple of games, racking up production that is truly remarkable for a 21-year-old rookie at one of the toughest positions in football.

Becton was excellent against Miami, allowing only one pressure over 34 protection snaps. Shaq Lawson rushed off of Becton’s side 20 times and could only muster up one pressure.

It was a great encore to Becton’s performance against Los Angeles the week prior, in which he allowed no pressures over 34 protection snaps.

Becton has gone four straight games without allowing a sack or a hit. He has allowed only four pressures over 111 protection snaps over his past four appearances, a strong pressure rate of 3.6% (2020 tackle average is 5.2%).

Over the past two weeks, Becton has allowed a pressure rate of 1.5%, fifth-best among all qualified tackles and second-best among qualified left tackles over that span.

Checking up on the rest of the offensive line
Greg Van Roten has cooled down a bit after a hot stretch from Weeks 5-9. Coming out of the Week 10 bye, he has allowed two pressures in each of his past two games, posting a pressure rate of 5.9% over that span (2020 guard average is 4.5%). He also posted two of his four worst run blocking grades of the season at Pro Football Focus in the Chargers and Dolphins games, earning marks of 46.8 and 45.4, respectively. Against Miami, the Jets rushed for only seven yards on four carries (1.8 per attempt) through the right-side A and B gaps.

Connor McGovern allowed another two pressures against Miami to bring his season total up to 25, the most among centers. However, PFF is fond of his progress from a grading perspective. Since Week 5, McGovern has earned an overall PFF grade of 66.7, which ranks 15th out of 32 centers over that span. McGovern was second-worst with a 44.4 grade from Weeks 1-4. He has been particularly good in the running game, earning a run blocking grade of 75.9 since Week 5 that ranks fifth-best at the position over that span.

In terms of pure physicality and man-to-man engagement, I think McGovern has looked great this season. His agility in the running game has flashed and his one-on-one pass protection has been strong. He is just struggling massively in the mental part of the game, failing to pick up blitzes and stunts at an alarming frequency. It is a shocking thing to watch considering how good he was in this area for Denver last season.

Starting in place of both George Fant and Chuma Edoga at right tackle, Conor McDermott was knocked with two pressures and a holding penalty.

Pat Elflein made his Jets debut with a start at left guard in place of Alex Lewis, getting the call over rookie fourth-round pick Cameron Clark. Elflein was credited with only one pressure allowed, but that’s a misleading total. He took a lot of losses in which he was fortunate that something happened to prevent the pressure credit, whether it was a teammate picking up the victorious defender, the ball being released quickly, or Sam Darnold breaking the pocket early in the play. PFF’s grading reflected this as they scored Elflein with a 40.8 pass blocking grade, third-worst among left guards in Week 12. I liked Elflein’s work in the running game, however. His positioning on pulls was typically solid.

Unless the Jets feel from watching him in practice that he is clearly not ready to play, it would be smart to place Clark into the starting lineup at left guard so he can build up some starting experience to take with him into his second season. Obviously, this coaching staff is probably not very concerned with the future considering they will likely not be with the Jets next season, but it still makes sense to give Clark a shot even if you are trying to win games now. Lewis and Elflein are plain-old bad. See if Clark can give you an upgrade.

Breshad Perriman is getting on track
Perriman hauled in 4-of-8 targets for 79 yards and three first downs, continuing his stretch of impressive play. He has 234 yards (78.0 per game) and three touchdowns over his past three games. Over the eight weeks prior, he had missed four games while averaging only 29.5 yards with zero touchdowns in the four games he did play.

Just as was the case throughout the first three quarters of his 2019 season with the Buccaneers, Perriman has been missed when open a lot this season. Joe Flacco and Sam Darnold (more so the latter, but Flacco is at fault as well) have been cashing in on open targets at an awful level of consistency this year, and it has made many of the skill position players appear worse than they really are. Perriman has arguably been the biggest victim, closely followed by Mims and Jamison Crowder. All three receivers would have much better numbers if their quarterbacks capitalized at a normal rate.

Perriman is averaging career-highs of 3.1 catches and 50.8 yards per game this season. His average of 1.70 yards per route run ranks 50th out of 118 qualifiers, placing him at the 58th percentile, a respectable place to be.

When the Jets have thrown Perriman’s way, he has typically rewarded them. He is averaging 9.8 yards per target, which ranks 17th-best at the position (86th percentile).

Perriman will be an unrestricted free agent in March, having only signed a one-year deal with the Jets. While Joe Douglas should search for a more reliable weapon to start opposite Mims on the outside next season, bringing back Perriman as a fourth option behind Mims, Crowder, and a new addition would make a lot of sense (if Perriman is willing to take that role/does not receive a better offer elsewhere). He has certainly proven he can be a dangerous deep threat.

 

Denzel Mims looks like a future superstar
Mims flashed brightly for the fifth consecutive game to begin his career, grabbing 4-of-8 targets for 67 yards and two first downs. There were a couple of negative moments, as he dropped a potential touchdown in a contested jump-ball window and also had an offensive pass interference penalty (in which he showcased ridiculous athleticism by leapfrogging the defender). Regardless, he continues to showcase the ability to snatch low-percentage catches on a highly consistent basis.

With at least 42 receiving yards in all five of his games to date, Mims is just the eighth rookie in NFL history to catch for 40-plus yards in each of his first five career games, joining Terry Glenn (1996), Andre Johnson (2003), Stefon Diggs (2015), Amari Cooper (2015), Michael Thomas (2016), Terry McLaurin (2019), and CeeDee Lamb (2020).

Mims currently ranks fourth among rookies with 56.8 receiving yards per game, trailing only Lamb (59.1), Tee Higgins (61.2), and Justin Jefferson (83.5).

In addition, Mims ranks third among rookies with 2.01 yards per route run, sitting behind only Chase Claypool (2.16) and Jefferson (2.91). That average also places Mims 25th out of 118 wide receivers with at least 20 targets this season, the 79th percentile.

It is extremely impressive to see Mims performing at such an efficient level this early in his career within a lethargic offense that is poorly coached and poorly quarterbacked. If he can keep this up, he will head into 2021 with an excellent chance of developing into an intimidating No. 1 wideout.

 

You're welcome!