I actually think the 49ers could win as many as 10 games or as few as 4. It's all going to depend on the defense which has some real talent on it and on the QB play where apparently there is little or no talent available.
I thought Alex Smith was a bit over rated coming out of college, but with the situation he was in he really had no chance. If he came in as a solid #2 guy and took the clipboard for a while, I could see a progression. The situation in SF is really hurting him.