Even if that’s historically true (and I’m not sure if it is or isn’t), that trend seems to be getting bucked as the years go on. 2017 - Patrick Mahomes was the second QB taken. 2018 - Sam Darnold, Josh Allen & Lamar Jackson were the second, third and fifth QB’s taken. 2020 - Herbert & Jordan Love were the third and fourth QB’s taken. 2024 - Jayden Daniels & Drake Maye were the second/third QB’s off the board.
I kinda want to make it easy and say the smart play is to keep riding Vandy until they prove otherwise. Especially at home. Plus, I just hate Mizzou. If I have to give a real reason, it's because I put more stock in Vandy's offense over Mizzou's defense, and more in Vandy's defense over Mizzou's offense. More specifically, I think Diego Pavia beats Mizzou's defense easier than Beau Pribula beats Vandy's. Mizzou has a good defense, but they've also played some shit teams. They played Alabama tight at home, so there's that. But ignoring the final score, Vandy played them pretty tight into the 4th quarter in front of 100,000 revenge-seeking Alabama fans. I'd call that a push. They both beat South Carolina, and LaNorris Sellers is the closest Mizzou has seen to Diego Pavia. Pavia has more experience and a ton of confidence. One small wildcard - with several coaches at bigger programs getting canned mid-season, Eli Drinkwitz is on everyone's list as a replacement. That could be a distraction. I haven't heard Clark Lea's name bounced around yet, but it will. I'd be surprised if Vandy people weren't already talking about bumping him up the SEC pay scale. He's a Vandy guy but I doubt he's so married to the school that he'd stick around out of loyalty alone. That's all I've got. Diego beats Mizzou's defense more times than Beau beats Vandy's defense.
Looks like Mendoza seems to be favored as #1 so far by a fairly decent amount: https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2026-nfl-draft-no-1-pick-odds Sellers and Simpson #2 and #3 with similar odds to one another. To these who watched these guys, does this make sense? If this continues there maybe a clear #1 pick - Mendoza, which means the tank becomes pretty critical.
Missouri is the program the SEC uses to prop them up over the Big Ten and Big 12 by saying look! Even our mid-tier programs are great! Much better than your Nebraska’s, Cincinnati’s, and Illinois! Missouri plays such a soft schedule on purpose every year. Their game against Auburn was their first road game of the year. On October 18th.
If you've followed this thread from the start I think you'll see that most posting here like Mendoza, but some have reservations. I'm definitely one of those with reservations, and I can absolutely give you the bearish case. That's a longer post. Plus, I haven't yet seen this last game which, by the stat line and extended highlights, looks like it was his best yet. The short version is - there are certain things we don't really know because Indiana either doesn't really ask him to do them or hasn't needed to do them. Meaning: if you want to see how he is as a drop-back passer throwing downfield against a decent defense, you really have to go back to Cal-Auburn in 2024 to see something like that. You can watch him play that game in 2025 against Kennesaw State or Indiana State, but you're wasting your time. The best game to see what Mendoza does and doesn't do well, for my money, is Indiana-Oregon. Here's the full game replay. I can go one better and direct you to four plays - two that show Good-Mendoza, two that show Bad-Mendoza - all easy to find. One Bad-Mendoza is at the very end of the first half. Indiana is trying to go about 40-yards in under a minute to get into FG range. Mendoza gets pressured and flushed out, and he heaves the ball off his back foot – all arm – 20-yds downfield. It drops 3-yards short. I'm not discounting that he's throwing off his back foot, but guys with strong arms don’t short that throw, even off their back foot. The WR got mugged for a PI call when he tried to come back for the ball, so it worked out. He was clearly intending for it to be behind the WR, expecting the guy to cut his route short and come back for it. But he puts everything into that throw and even without PI the ball is falling way short of what he intended. On the other hand, there's a great example of Good-Mendoza on the play right before that - a 10-yard throw to the sideline, placed where the WR and no one else could grab it, picking up a first down and stopping the clock. The second Bad-Mendoza is early in the 4th quarter. Indiana is 3rd and 2 at their own 25, they just went up by a touchdown in the prior series, and the defense just had a stop. It was a really tight game, so a sustained drive at this point in the game was important. Mendoza gets pressured and tries to layer the ball between two DBs to the sideline from the opposite hash. A 10-yard pass that had to travel 30-yards for a completion and came up about 5-yards short for a pick-6 and a tie game. This one was off his back foot also. Shows his naked arm-strength and, more importantly, how he is in one of the few times he faced pressure. It was his also his biggest mistake of the game. 99% of the time he'll take the safe few yards in front of him to keep a drive alive over the riskier 15-yard throw that could lose the down. Cignetti gets some of the blame. Whatever the hell he had in mind, that play call was outside of anything else they'd done all game, and that pass was just a dumb mistake by Mendoza. Not that he doesn't have the arm to make the throw, but he'll never get the time to set up to make it against a decent pass rush. The other example of Good-Mendoza is the play right before that one. An RPO on 2nd and 10. Nobody will ever mistake Mendoza for a dual-threat QB, but he will scramble if that's the last-best option, and Indiana runs just enough RPO to keep defenses honest. He keeps the ball, smartly, runs to a wide-open lane and dives for 8-yards. It's an important drive. If he slid, it would have left Indiana at 3rd and 6; instead it was 3rd and 2 - until his dumbass throw on the next play. But this one shows smarts, toughness, and whatever the word is for doing-whatever-it-takes-to-win. Anyway, that's all I've got for now. Longer than I thought it'd be, but only a fraction of what I'd like to say if I had more time.
Not sure why I challenged what your son said yesterday by the way. You were probably right lol my bad dude.
Nah dude. Challenge welcome. I didn't really watch until the last quarter. And my son sent me a picture of the stadium and from the looks of the picture it really looked like an LSU takeover. I will able to watch the Mizzou game though and it is at 3:30 PM and I will have some friends over to watch with me. I hope I don't bring bad luck to Vandy.
It's probably going to repeat this year given the Jets keep losing in one score games. At some point the luck is going to reverse, and the Jets will win a couple games and end up picking second or third.
Just another thought I could see Woody Johnson being very impressed with Mendoza and requesting that he’s the pick woody likes to get involved with QBs and it’s never about their play on the field. who do you think he would connect better with? The son of a Ford factory worker (Moore)? Nah… a very southern football lifer (Simpson) nah.. he’s going to pick the south Florida finance nerd who spends his summers interning at investment firms. He just is
Good write up. I am, however, going to disagree with you about the first BAD play (no arguments about the INT. It was brutal.) I watched the play a few times. First, his escape ability from the pocket was textbook. Eyes down the field. Steps up in the pocket. Feels the pressure. Two hands on the ball. Escape to his right. Now the throw: I think he intentionally threw it to that spot (back shoulder) thinking that his receiver (in this case a RB) would stop. I can't be certain but that's what it looks like to me. I'm guessing his WRs have specific routes they run in scramble drills. A back shoulder comeback on the sideline would make sense there. Not sure if the RB would know that. Anyway, it's all speculation but that's just my opinion.
This is going to be a strange QB year. Prior to the season Sellers and Nussmeier were the two blue chip guys, with an assumption Manning would be right there as well, depending on whether he’d even opt for the draft. There were some wildcards like Allar and Beck that have now dropped precipitously. Mendoza has flown up the line this year, guys like him worry me. Nussmeier has the tools but he’s got a tendency to force throws and not go through his progressions as well as I’d like to see. Maiava has a cannon but packs accuracy and touch. Dante Moore was a massive blue chip prospect that struggled mightily, chose to take a redshirt year behind Dillon Gabriel rather than taking an opportunity to immediately start, and is now having success. Personally speaking, Sellers is the best of this year’s prospects. I think this draft is going to produce alot of QB’s compared to other years, where there will be some late rounders that emerge into respectable QB’s in the NFL.
