As you said, Hurts was mid second round, still a high pick. Purdy I guess, but again, is he FQB for a team without Shanahan level coach? Shanahan made Jimmy G and Mac Jones look just as good. Dak is really the only guy picked in the last 10 years below mid second round who is a really good starter for the team that picked him. And there was a A LOT of QBs picked at that range - about a 100 (94 I think). As far as QB1 or 2, I am not arguing that point. My point is if you pick in mid/late rounds hoping to get a FQB, you might need to do this 100 times before you get Dak level player, if you ever get one. Simpson is a different story. He will be a 1st round pick (or second at worst), because I think his tape was not bad. But I am concerned about lack of starts, injuries in the the only year he played, small size, older age for number of starts. Still, unlike the mid round guys we just discussed, he has more than 1% probability to succeed. But as you said we let him sit, we don't know who he is in 2026. Are we then trading up major capital to draft a QB in 2027 without knowing who Simpson is yet? I highly doubt it. If we draft Simpson, he is the guy for the next year also. We just need to be ready to pass on 2027 QB class if we get him.
My point about below mid or so second round does not apply to Simpson. And over time what I observed is the opposite of what you are saying: the teams are getting better at selecting QBs with some potential higher. Which is why a lot of QBs who are making play-offs are 1st round picks, many top 3 picks. We already had this discussion before. So, if you want 1% probability of success, sure spend a mid round pick on a QB. That is just not wise statistically speaking, unless you want to get a long term back up. Then it is OK. Now I completely agree with you that we may not be in position to pick a QB next year. Or if we are it could cost arm and a leg. We don't know. Which is why I am hedging my bets where I say if we can get blue chip talent at 16, that will take a sting of a trade up we will have to make next year, since we already drafted a star this year with 16 (or some sort of a trade up from 16). So, get two studs this year at other positions, and next year focus on QB, even if it costs arm and a leg. But if we can't get a blue chiper at #16, I would be OK to draft Simpson. Then at that point most likely we will be looking at 2026 and 2027 to evaluate him, and if he fails, the next QB draft choice would have to come in 2028 or later.
