I’m not saying I agree with it because I personally take the point but it’s an analytics thing. The stupid spreadsheets say you win the game more often going for 2.
That's it folks, this team could very well damn straight be looking at 0-17. I wouldn't give them a puncher's chance against Carolina as that is the ONLY team left on the schedule that could even be questionable. Even worse that I thought the season could be.
0-4 soon to be 0-6 Dallas probably puts up 50+ on us, then Denver shuts us out most likely Our next real chance for a win is going to be the Panthers after that Europe game against Denver…and there’s a solid chance we’ll be the underdogs in that one too
Well, I guess that’s what the numbers say, but I always feel you don’t go for two until you absolutely need to
Assume you score a touchdown on the next drive (the whole thing is moot if you don't). Also assume for simplicity that an extra point is 100%, a two point conversion is 50%, and your overtime win probability is 50%. If you go for two on the first score and get it (50%), you win. If you go for two and fail (50%), you can still tie with a two pointer (50%) on the next drive and force overtime (50%). So your overall win probability is 50%+50%*50%*50% = 62.5%. If you go for the extra point on both drives, you'll force overtime and have a 50% win probability. If you go for the extra point on the first drive and go for two on the second drive, you'll either win or lose in regulation for an overall win probability of 50%. For pretty much any plausible assumptions on the conversion and overtime win probabilities, your overall win probability is highest if you go for two after the first score.
