Hackenburg is very overrated. The kid is a bad QB playing for a bad HC at a bad program. Jared Goff is the best QB to come out since Luck. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
And then they'll be underclassmen with all the uncertainty that carries. You really do want a guy who has started 3 years in college and is 4 years out of high school. The redshirt juniors that qualify weren't A1 prospects coming out of high school and so they didn't suit up for the varsity their freshman year. That gives you bare minimum a true junior who started as a freshman as your openers. Most of those guys go back to school for their senior year and finish things off. They're not post-graduates after just 3 years in school. Jared Goff will be a true junior after 2015, who has started all 3 seasons at Cal. His record as a starter so far? 6-18. That's Jay Cutler territory.
There are a few QBs that fit the category of 3 yrs in college and 4 years out of HS [Cook - MSU and Kessler - USC]. Not a huge fan of Goff as he plays in that high tempo spread offense. I saw somewhere, that spread QBs, only about 10 percent of the throws in the spread translates to the NFL. That's an awful stat. If these juniors come out early, they will prob go high due to upside - and that will allow some of the seniors to potentially drop. That's a scenario I hope happens with Cook.
It would be nice to see some hyped underclassmen taken early on, leaving the seniors for the Jets to choose from later on. The Jets should probably scout every 4 year starter at QB until they find their guy. If you played for 4 years anywhere the odds are pretty good you're a leader and good enough to hold the job in whatever competitive setting you were in. Phil Simms was a 1st round pick out of Morehead State in 1979. He didn't have anything in the way of credentials from a competitive point of view, as Morehead State was a small school in a small conference and he didn't win anything much while he was there. That didn't stop the Giants from taking him on the 7 pick, a huge gamble that paid off. Bill Walsh flew out to see him also and was prepared to take him above Joe Montana but the Giants beat him to the punch and so he went with the other guy to run his system. The point is that if you're focused like a laser on finding your guy you'll probably find him as long as you leave no stone unturned in the search. I have nothing against Bryce Petty, who could be the guy for the Jets if everything turns out just right. That said, he was a 2 year starter in college and the Jets probably could have spent a 4th round pick better than taking a guy who looked good last season in a spread. If you focus in on the 4 year starters and the guys who sat for a year then started for 3 your odds go way up.
And John Elway had a losing record playing on terrible teams at Stanford. Matt Lienart, Vince Young, and Jarmacus Russell all were "winners" in college. A teams record has noting to do with a Quarterbacks outlook in the pros. In fact, I'd say it's a positive that Jared Goff is thought highly of considering how terrible his teams has been. It shows that he's had success despite playing on terrible rosters; I don't get your point here at all.
Leinart, VY, and Russell were on some pretty stacked teams [plenty of players in the NFL on those rosters]. Elway prob gave his Stanford teams the only chance to win games, same with Peyton Manning to an extent. I'm skeptical on Goff because of the offense being ran at his school. He doesn't exhibit the ability to make all of the throws in that spread offense.
Them being 3 to 4 year starters along with the offense being ran at college, I think helps determine the success of these young QBs. I think the offense being ran is the key to everything. I agree, the Jets should scout every junior and senior out there, but they must consider the offense being ran at that school. Especially if you are looking for a starter that can come in as a rookie or a 2nd year pro.
I usually don't harp on offensive systems, but yes the system is a concern for Goff. He seems to be a very smart QB, but they run a simple version of the air raid offense, heavily dependent on package plays. I know other Quarterbacks were knocked for the systems they've come from over the past few years, but Goff's ofense is signficantly simpler than Oregon's offense or Cam Newton's offense in 2011. I like him, but I have serious doubts when it comes to Goff and that extends past the system to be honest . However, I don't see why his team's record is relevant when evaluating his play. His team is terrible, with one of the worst offensive lines in CFB and Goff's the only reason why they're in games against top tier PAC 12 teams. He really is Cal's offense. Everyone has their favorites, but this 2016 for Quarterbacks at least doesn't project to be "the year of the Quarterbacks".
If you're scouting everybody the odds are you're looking for somebody who will sit for a year unless you get really lucky with a 1st round caliber QB who plays in the type of scheme you run already. You kind of have to get your QB's early, although obviously Tom Brady, Kurt Warner and Tony Romo all argue that greatness can be had anywhere if you look hard enough and are willing to be patient with your development. The end of the 3rd round is probably the point at which most of the real prospects will be gone most seasons. The number of 3rd rounders who actually succeed is very, very low but you still have a shot at getting a star there. Russell Wilson is the only star QB to come out of the 3rd round in the last three plus decades. He was there because he didn't meet the height minimum to get seriously evaluated as a franchise QB. The last Hall of Famer before Wilson, who is likely to be a candidate, who was drafted at QB in the 3rd round was Joe Montana in 1979.
@ BigSnacks54 The best QB's in the business: 1. Aaron Rodgers. Just 2 years as a starter but sat for 3 years in Green Bay before he hit the field. 2. Tom Brady. Just 2 years as a starter but his career has basically been an accident that came up 4 Aces. 6th round pick. Ok, those are the strange cases overall. The guy who was picked in the 1st round but didn't play until his 4th season and the 6th round pick who came out of nowhere. 3. Peyton Manning. 4 year starter at Tennessee. 4. Ben Roethlisberger. 3 year starter at Miami (OH), came out as a redshirt Junior. 5. Andrew Luck. 3 year starter at Stanford, came out as a redshirt Junior. (Listed as a Senior in some places but he wore the red shirt his first year at Stanford.) 6. Drew Brees. 4 year starter at Purdue. 7. Philip Rivers. 4 year starter at NC. 8. Russell Wilson. 4 year starter at NC State and then Wisconsin. 9. Eli Manning. 3 year starter at Mississippi, left after his Senior season. 10. Matt Ryan. 3 year starter at Boston College, left after his Senior season. 11. Joe Flacco. 2 year starter at Delaware after transferring from Pittsburgh where he was buried on the depth chart for 2 years. 12. Tony Romo. 3 year starter at Eastern Illinois, was 25 before he got a shot in the NFL. Ok, now we're out of the territory of guys you expect might win a Super Bowl. I'd argue that nobody after the top 12 that is currently playing QB in the NFL has established that their pick was a good pick whatever the playing circumstances involved in their college careers. Matthew Stafford was a 3 year starter at Georgia who came out as a true Junior because of a weak class at QB and with Sam Bradford due up the following year. Alex Smith came out as a 2 year starter at Utah as a Junior and had one of the rockiest early careers ever for a successful NFL QB. I mean 6 year rocky. Balboa. Cam Newton came out as a 1 year starter in his second school after repeatedly getting kicked off the team and eventually out of his first school for off the field stuff. Obviously 6'5" 245, rocket arm and 4.5 speed made him something unusual despite all the hijinks. Andy Dalton was a 4 year starter at Texas Christian and played well his rookie year in the NFL and fairly well overall in his career so far but not really a guy that makes you think Super Bowl. Colin Kaepernick was a 4 year starter at Nevada and has played well but also doesn't make you think Super Bowl in a vacuum. RG III was a 4 year starter at Baylor and played very well his rookie season but the injuries have hurt him since then. He also missed most of his sophomore season at Baylor with an injury. One other thing of note is that only one player in the top 12 QB's above was in college for less than 4 seasons. That being Aaron Rodgers at the top of the list. Rodgers was not considered a good prospect at QB coming out of high school. He received no scholarship offers from any schools at any level. He considered quitting football to study law and then got enticed to play QB for Butte College, a JUCO 20 miles from his home. That year at Butte got him noticed by Jim Tedford at Cal and the rest is history. When he was told that he might be a 1st round pick in the 2005 draft he left Cal a year early and who can blame him?
What you are closely referring to is the Bill Parcells rule. Only draft QBs with multiple (3+) years starting college experience, preferably within the highest levels of competition, and with a college degree.
Yes, that's the one and I've mentioned him specifically when I talked about it in the past. I decided to do the full post this time and actually list the best QB's in football and their circumstances to make the point.
I was burned on Leinart with that. I truly thought he was going to be a very good NFL QB. Fit all the criteria we're talking about, didn't seem to be lacking anything athletically. I thought he was gonna be what Joe Flacco is today in terms of how he plays/status in this league
Left handed USC QB going to place where QB's hadn't prospered much. He seemed like a good QB but that's a lot of negatives to bundle up at the start of a career. He basically came to USC looking good and then stayed there for 3 years at the same level. He didn't gain at all on his freshman season and that's another potential sign that maybe a player has plateaued at an early age and will have trouble stepping it up when the move to the NFL turns his world upside down. The Cardinals best offensive lineman when he arrived was LT Leonard Davis. What do you do with him and a lefty QB? Flop him to RT to protect the blindside or leave him where he has excelled in the past? The Cardinals chose to leave him there and then drafted a college LT Levi Brown to play RT for them on the 5 pick. Brown who was an excellent LT in college never became a good RT in the pros. Lefty QB's are a real investment in reconfiguring the offense and they'd better be good enough to pay the freight on that.
As a Spartan fan the thing that drives me crazy with Cook is how erratic he can be. That was on display last night against Western Michigan as Cook was all over the place making bad reads and tons of throws off his back foot. That has been his biggest flaw and I was really hoping that he would have cleaned up his mechanics before this season. There's a long way to go this year and I'm sure he'll be right back in the conversation with a good game against Oregon next week but I am starting to worry that Cook is not starting NFL material.
Most good college QB's aren't even backup NFL material. That's why when a guy like Luck comes along it's so obvious. There's nobody in next year's draft that you can project as a good starting NFL QB. Odds are one or two guys will be decent and maybe even good but that's going to be based on stepping up their play above where it was in college once they hit the NFL and very few players do that. Tom Brady was the sandwich guy at Michigan between Brian Griese and Drew Henson. He got to play his Junior and Senior years because Lloyd Carr was loyal to his upperclassmen and didn't think Henson was ready to go yet. I remember thinking during the 2000 draft how nice it would be to have a familiar face on the Jets in Brady but also thinking he was going to be a slow-footed backup at best. That's just what he looked like at Michigan. Then he got to the pros and Charlie Weis started working with him and he got literally 10x better than he was in college.
I disagree that he isn't starting material, but I expected more out of him this season, after watching his games in July. He's pretty good at testing one on one good coverage outside the numbers and throwing with touch there, but it looks as if he's afraid of pressure and sees "ghosts" in the pocket; there several instances in his red shirt junior season where he'd bail clean pockets (reminiscent of Blaine Gabbert ). It's still early and most teams are rusty early on, so we'll see what he does next and I can see why people like him; he flashes every few plays and keeps one intrigued, but the inconsistency for a red shirt senior is troubling. He'll probably go in round one or two, unless he's terrible this season.
Thanks for the response. I'm not the biggest Stafford or Cam fan, but both QBS especially Newton have proven they can be solid Quarterbacks despite their inconsistencies. Cam is a top 15 starter or so who has continued to improve and Stafford is just outside of that list, but he's serviceable and isn't held back by his physical tools(like Dalton ). With the Parcells rule, you're basically elimanting a segement of of Quarterbacks, who may be more talented than those fourth year starting Quarterbacks. And If I believe the underclassmen or true Junior is the superior prospect I'm likely taking. We can come up with rules or ideas to increase the odds of finding a franchise QB, but it's ultimately going to come down to luck.
You're going to hit on about a third of your 1st round QB picks. From 2001 to 2012 there were 35 QB's taken in the 1st round and 14 of them turned into quality starters (including Jay Cutler, Michael Vick, Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill in the quality starters category even though none of them is in the category of superior QB to date.) I left out 2013 and 2014 because there just isn't enough data to know how those drafts turned out yet. RGIII is not in the quality starter category from 2001 to 2012. Of the guys who turned into quality starters only 3 of them had less than 4 years in school: Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith and Cam Newton. There's something about all 3 that sets them apart from the others. In the case of Rodgers and Smith that something is a very long and grindy development process that is impossible for a team to commit too under the current economics in play. Both of them took 3+ years to produce any dividends for the team that spent the 1st round pick. For Newton there's the obvious correlation between extraordinarily gifted athlete and production and even then Newton is no guarantee to be a success in the end. His play has plateaued at this point and all it will take is a minor leg injury and he'll be out of the quality starter category in a hurry, just like Daunte Culpepper was. Everybody else who was drafted in the first round and has succeeded is from the 4 years and 3 as a starter school of thought. That's just what it is. So if the Jets are looking for a guy they can spend 3 years developing off the field then they can widen their net considerably. If a Cam Newton-like prospect comes along we'll all know it. Just like the NFL knew it in 2011.
