And letting teams like the Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders and the Fins set the price for us is bad. Just look at what those prices do for them and ask yourself why we're not better off just letting them overpay while we try to develop cheaper, better solutions?
The problem with that logic is that not all picks will always work out. Even the best scouts in the league will miss on picks. That's the idea to having a large number of picks- in that you'll still get quality players even when (not if) some of them bust. It's the nature of the beast. You can't say "we could trade up as long as we hit on the rest of our picks", because that will never happen.
This is exactly it. If you could figure out in advance which picks were guaranteed to fail, even to the point of not giving you good backups and special teams depth, then you could package all of those picks and make some no-brainer trade ups. The picks were completely worthless and so you just added value by pawning them off on somebody. This is what the Jets sort of tried to do for a period of years. They'd come to some kind of internal valuation that saw late round picks as almost worthless and so they spent them like a drunken sailor to acquire veteran players and to trade up for better picks. The problem is that every analysis of the 7 round draft that is done finds that the later rounds are actually significant contributors to the talent base of good teams. The Standard Draft Trade Value Chart makes the #1 pick overall 1500 times more valuable than the 255th pick in the draft. When you actually do a quantitative analysis of what the picks produce the numbers are more like 10 times more valuable. Here's an example: http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_JQAS_NFL_Draft.pdf There are many more analyses that show the true value of the players coming out of the NFL draft. To give you examples that make the point: Tom Brady was a 6th round pick. Johnny Unitas was a 9th round pick. Kurt Warner was a UDFA.
Didn't say a first, just a high pick. I would bet it is a second or maybe a third (which I still consider high). Answer this: if we do use a high pick on a CB are you going to be pissed off? I will be.
I have it on good information that the 2014 season is not the last in NFL history. The Jets are trying to build a team for the long haul, one that will be competitive for years. The Jets roster was a mess after 2012. The Jets are looking for young affordable long term solutions, not stop gaps or overpaid veterans to placate fans like you or the media. The Pats and Broncos are both in a completely different situation . They have aging QBs on QB dominated teams and the window is rapidly closing on both teams. They are both going for it all in 2014. They will both likely pay forth this strategy a year or two from now. The Jets still have holes to fill. They filled two already . Hunter wanted too much money and they replaced him with a better cheaper option. Decker filled the biggest hole on the team . There were no TEs worth spending money on. Bringing back Cumberland was smart. As for CB, I have a feeling the Jets believe Cro is damaged goods because of his hip. A 31 year old CB with a bad hip is a bad investment . The other CBs were bad fits or wanted too much money. There are still other positions to fill besides CB and plenty of time to do it. Plus there is the draft. This team can improve from within. Smith should be better. The DL is young and will get better. Decker and a healthy Kerley should upgrade the WR position without even considering a likely first or second round pick as another addition. The safeties are still young. I know this is an oxymoron , but Jets fans need to patient. And just because the team has not won since 68 is not a reason to make stupid decisions out of impatience because " we fans have been waiting too long and want to win now. " we all want that, but you just don't snap your fingers and win titles. Hess said he wanted to win now in the 90's and fired Carroll and hired Kotite.
Why you really shouldn't be panicking if you're a #Jets fan: http://t.co/PGgdKqHL3L #Jets #TOJ #NFL Good read
This is only one time I was concerned in free agency, that was in 2007. When the Pat's went crazy and only busted on Adalius Thomas and Kelley Washington. You knew on draft day that offense was going to be good. From ESPN's 2007 Draft Trade Tracker "The Patriots have been the most aggressive team in the league this offseason, and with the addition of Randy Moss have easily positioned themselves as the team to beat heading into the 2007 season. One of New England's major concerns heading into this offseason was the lack of playmakers around Tom Brady. The Patriots quickly addressed that in March, adding wide receivers Wes Welker, Donte' Stallworth and Kelley Washington. However, Moss gives this team a legitimate No. 1 receiver with explosive playmaking skills." They also added Kyle Brady a TE, and Sammy Morris RB. That offense was #1 until this year and they did get to the SB and thankfully lost. I guess if you have a franchise QB moves like these can work.
Giants signed Walter Thurmond I really hope that leaves us with DRC. We were one of the worst secondaries in the league last year and so far all we've done is cut our best corner. We need to make some serious moves in the secondary or they'll get burned down field just as bad as last year.
The Pats got Moss and Welker on the cheap that year through trades. They didn't splurge on them as free agents and pay them big contracts.
Asamoah is certainly good value for the contract and not an 'average player' at his position. Soliai got the biggest contract and may be marginally overvalued for his production but he is a good player and that team needed an improved presence on the DL which they've attempted to address with him and Jackson. Both Dmitroff and Smith have had a lot of success from the moment they got their respective positions and I'd be surprised to see either one of them fired next year. Lately Atlanta has been nothing but a quality team and organization that took key injuries last year, and after coming into cap space this year they made a perfectly reasonable attempt to improve the quality of the team with mid tier FA signings. Barring injuries there's no reason to expect them to go right back to a top-tier team next year. Despite them making a far bigger FA splash than myself and a few others on here was advocating, Atlanta will be able to navigate cap strain that arrives from this as long as the team performs anywhere near expectations. What will your position be if Idzik does in fact sign DRC within the next couple days? Anything but the harshest criticism from you would be entirely hypocritical, and yet the long visits to the organization and sustained interest trying to get a deal done isn't a figment of the imagination. And yet if he is signed the Decker and DRC contracts alone would add up to signifcantly more than what it would've cost to bring in Ward/Asamoah/and a WR like Sanders combined.
No, not all picks work out, but you would expect a high % of your first round picks to work out... Of course everyone misses on DP, but we have been very bad at first rounders. My point was, not only did we miss on that pick, we also had to pick again for the same spot in the following years, taking away from depth picks and eating a lot of cap space.
They did splurge on Adalius Thomas and gave him a huge contract, just like they splurged on Roosevelt Colvin from FA a Super Bowl before that. Not to mention that trading picks for vets is maybe more costly than FA acquisitions, especially to all of the extreme 'draft and nothing else' overreactionary fanatics on here.
Actually we were one of the worst secondaries because our "best corner" had an abysmal year. If Cromartie is going to play next year like he did last year we are better off without him.
You're right on that, maybe we do some Draft day trade and send the Buc's 4th rounder for someone. But we have to wait till May for that.
First off, Ty Ward is a strong safety. That's not the Jets problem. They've got several people who can play strong safety on the roster but nobody who can play free safety. That's the problem. If Ty Ward had been a FS I'm pretty sure the Jets would have been interested at the price he signed for. Secondly, I'm not going to harshly criticize moves the Jets make at this point. I'm not going to agree with all of them and I'm going to register my disagreement when I have one but harsh criticism is not warranted. My responses to the current free agent situation are largely based upon very harsh criticism being levied on the Jets for not doing stupid things. I'd be spending half the time that I am in posting at this point if there weren't so many idiots out there screaming at the Jets to just spend dammit, I don't care who you sign, just spend!
We haven't been that bad in the first round. Since 2008, we had one super bust (Gholston), two average players (Wilson, Sanchez), two stars (Wilkerson, Richardson) one player that's above average and has the potential to be great if he figures out his position change (Coples) and a player that was below average last year but really looked like he started figuring out how to play at the end of the year (Milliner). That's actually pretty good- especially considering where we draft. Sanchez has performed above average for a first round QB. He's a bust because we traded up for him. We traded a couple of high picks and quality depth to get him. It's like overpaying for a free agent. If you give above market value for someone, you better be sure he's going to be a star.
Same statement that was made last year, yet with a dismal offensive team, a rookie QB, a couple of key injuries to the LB core and a stiff Cromartie playing half speed we went 8-8. Forgive me if I give this prediction zero credibility. I will say it again, this is a team that needs to rebuild slowly, 99% through the draft and 1% through free agency with selected value picks and not plug all the holes in one year via free agency using marginal improvement players that were let go by other teams much in the same shape as ours. Denver and NE are do or die now, they are over reaching, and within two years they will have most of the guys out in the street trying to rebuild just like us, and the Steelers, and many others. If you prefer the Miami, Raiders or Browns approach knock yourself out. They will go no where fast but into cap hell
why? the agency didn't disclose a deal had been accepted to the teams they were shopping to. why would they tell the Jets? The scheduling conflict was DRC
