Right, but again, that's a 2009 thing. He didn't have this problem in 2008. Something changed. Which means that it's not some inherent quality. That was my point. It's like people forgot that 2008 happened. I agree, but my point is that his role isn't separate from what's hurt his fastball. That is, if his arm is well enough to throw ridiculous gas and killer sliders out of the pen, it's going to be good enough to throw it out of the rotation, too. Last year, when his velocity was down, he wasn't throwing gas or killer sliders out of the pen, either. He was rather hittable in either role.
But the thing you have to keep in mind is that last year when he was starting he looked hesitant, even toward the end of the year when he was supposedly healthy. Then in the pen during the playoffs he was "Joba Rules" again, throwing heat. That's what people are going to remember. Basically, he's a complete unknown right now. Has he healed and is he confident that he's 100%? If so, he'll throw fastballs and sliders then mix in whatever else he's developed for 6+. In that case he'll mostly silence the critics that don't believe his role is in the rotation. If he continues to show hesitancy, or his velocity tails 3 innings into his starts, then he should be put back in the pen. I'm hopeful that he's a starter, but if he isn't, I want him to be our next closer.
I know that's what people are going to remember, but it's rather misleading. He touched 97 once or twice out of the pen, and averaged 94-95. That's not the "old Joba." The old Joba was averaging 97 and hitting 100. That's a big difference, and a big reason why he was nearly unhittable as a reliever (in 2007-2008), but just adequate as a reliever last year. And he was supposed to be healthy for all of last year, not just the end. His velocity was still down, across the board. Here's the funny thing about Joba's starts last year, though. Even though his average velocity was down, his stamina was never an issue. His velocity didn't tail off after three innings. That's a red herring. Typically, his velocity went up last year as the innings rolled on. There were numerous starts where he was sitting 89-91 for the first inning, and then would be up to 92-95 by the third. But that's still not the 95-98 we saw from him as a starter in 2008. Now THAT might have been mechanical or mental... but it's still separate from the overall decrease in velocity, regardless of his role.
And that's very fair. However, you have to remember that for 99% of the baseball loving public, people don't look for, nor even really care about, actual numbers. Most of Yankee fandom, as any fanbase, saw a more confident and dominating Joba on the mound in October. Misleading or not, Joba appeared to the naked eye to be better coming out of the bullpen. That's what most fans see, and what fuels the "Joba 4 Closer" argument. I just want the best Joba can give us. I'd prefer that were in the rotation, given that I understand the difference between a starter and a closer. I'm simply pointing out that 1) if he proves that he can't be a starter I'd rather he become the setup-prepping-for-closer and 2) I get why people feel he's just more "cut out" for the pen.
Oh, I know. It's just baffling that people would prefer to believe what they want to believe in the face of what's actually happening in reality. I'm just glad that's not how the people in charge seem to be And that's fine, too. I just think you (or others) should consider a couple of things, if Joba's fastball isn't back: 1. If it's keeping him from being an effective starter, he's not going to be that great of a reliever. He'll likely be decent, I suppose, but not what people are expecting him to be. It's not going to be the "old Joba." Unless he makes some adjustments and develops better command. Of course, those are also improvements that would help him in his role as a starter. 2. If the move to the bullpen would be permanent, then the Yanks will probably see more value in Joba as trade bait (as a potential young starter).
I don't know if I'm not being clear enough but there's a key issue I don't think you're understanding in my POV. I do think Joba's fastball will be back (and I agree that if it isn't he's not really all that useful.) The problem is, I wonder if he can maintain it over the course of 6+ innings in a single game, once per week. From what I've seen (admittedly subject to human flaw) he appears more capable of throwing his hardest, filthiest stuff when only called upon for single-inning work, even if it's every day. When asked to do it for multiple innings, he appears to be apprehensive as though he's holding something back. If that's the case, he holds great value as a reliever but not as a starter. If he can give you one lights-out inning 4-5 nights a week, then he's Mo's successor. And I think this is where most of Yankee fandom comes from with their opinion. The main difference between myself and the majority is that I'd still prefer that Joba give us those dominating innings just once a week for 7 full innings.
Okay, well then this is the source of my confusion regarding your opinion: If we already know that - when he had his good fastball in 2008 - that he most certainly was able to maintain it for 6+ innings (I had posted the Pitch F/X games that show this), then why would you be concerned about him being able to do it again if you think he'll have his fastball back? It should already be clear that the problem was NOT that he apprehensive just because he was starting. The problem was that he had a mediocre fastball and less command of it. Hell, maybe THAT is what he was apprehensive about (and possibly rightly so). Even just using your eyes, you should be able to see this from watching the games (in 2008 and 2009). The only real differences between Joba 08 and Joba 09 were three interrelated things: He was injured late in 08, his velocity dropped precisely at that point, and they look like they've changed his mechanics a bit. ETA: I also wanted to add that it's pretty obvious that a pitcher who comes out of a pen will throw his hardest stuff in that role. That holds true for ANY pitcher.
And my hope is that it all works out. I want him to start, not relieve. There are any number of reasons why he might not be an effective starter. Perhaps he never really develops a third or fourth pitch to be MLB-ready. Perhaps mentally he just can't get himself into a mindset that has him throwing his best stuff for 6-7 straight innings. There can be any number of reasons why a dominant reliever just doesn't make for a dominant starter. Mo is one of the best examples of that ever. All I'm saying is that if for some reason he doesn't work out as a starter I want to see him be groomed as the eventual closer. This really isn't anything to argue. I don't even actually know what we're disagreeing on.
The only thing I seem to disagree with you on -- and I still have a hard time figuring out where you're coming from here, because it sounds like you're repeating things that I thought were put to bed a few pages ago -- is that you're talking about Joba as though there are all these question marks about his ability, that there are these things we have yet to see from him... when we've already seen them. Your questions don't seem like the ones we should be asking. -- He does have a third ML ready pitch (his curve is very good). A fourth even (his changeup is good, too). Possibly a fifth if you liked the two-seamer he threw last year (it's not too shabby... usable, at least). -- He's already shown that he's perfectly capable of getting into a starter's mindset. (Read: 11 starts in 2008 with an ERA in the low twos.) -- He's already shown that he can maintain velocity over multiple innings and multiple starts. (Read: 2008 starts again.) So I guess that's what I don't get. You keep talking about these things that concern you about Joba... whether he maintains velocity, develops a third pitch, has the mental makeup, etc... and those questions have pretty much been answered. We've seen that he can. It seems like a very selective memory at work, one that forgets all about 2008. As far as I'm concerned, the only question that matters is, "Does he have his fastball back?" If he does, he might still have bouts with inconsistency (all young pitchers do), but he'll have a much easier time getting through them. And all the issues we've seen from Joba in terms of results seem to correlate directly to his fastball -- the velocity of it, his command of it, etc. Fix that, and the rest of the problems disappear.
The question is, two years later, is all of that still the case? If so, then he's a starter, no question. If not, then the story may change. What I saw from Joba out of the pen in the playoffs last year impressed me. What I saw from Joba in the rotation (with the exception of that one stretch in August) did not. So the question is whether or not Joba 2k10 is like '08 or '09.
They have to decide what they want him to do and keep him there. I don't think he got a fair crack at starting but I think he'll be back in the pen w/ Hughes in the rotation.
Oh, come on, man. He didn't completely lose two of his pitches between 08 and 09, or forget how to prepare as a starter. And the problem last year wasn't with maintaining velocity (it would increase throughout games)... the problem was generating much velocity in the first place. This seems so cut and dry to me. Everything works off his fastball. I'm really confused why you want to make it more than it is. Yes, that is the question. My point throughout all of this has been that it doesn't stem from a lack of a third pitch or a lack of mental whateverness, etc. It all ties in to his fastball. If he's got it, then he'll be fine, and should start. If he doesn't, you can put him in the pen, but he isn't going to amount to much without improvement in command. And if his command has improved, then he can still be a successful starter (just maybe not the front of the rotation guy he was looking like in 2008). What I saw from Joba out of the pen last year didn't really impress me. He was decent. But he didn't generate swings and misses (that's very bad), got hit fairly hard (9 H in 6.1 IP), still had diminished velocity (relative to his former ability) and still had command issues. I don't find that impressive at all. He got the job done (mostly) and for that I'm grateful, not impressed. ETA: I want to add that I'm not trying to argue with you here. I'm just honestly confused by what you're trying to say, because it seems inconsistent to me... I'm having trouble following it. You say you think Joba's fastball WILL be back this year, but you're concerned about things that you've already seen him do. You say you're just pointing out why OTHERS want him in the pen, but you seem to share their concerns (even if that's not where you ultimately want Joba to be). You say you agree that without his fastball, Joba would be kind of blah out of the pen, but then you say you were impressed with how he looked out of the pen last year despite him not having his good fastball... that you liked his aggressiveness, and even that you thought he WAS throwing gas (although that's only relative to how he was throwing as a starter, which is a jump you'd expect from ANY pitcher, and not compared to how hard he used to throw). I'm just having a hard time pinning down why you believe what you believe here.
I think this conversation is done dude. It's just another one of the infamous merry-go-rounds we're known for. I want Joba to be a starter. 'Nuff said.
Not trying to to argue or avoid one. It just doesn't make sense to keep going in circles when the end result is that we both want the same end result (Joba starting.) Let's just enjoy the fact that baseball is back! Anyone know if it's on the radio?
You don't understand! The other day the @YankeesWFAN Twitter account said that she'd just joined Twitter and I immediately went to follow her. Turned out it was a faker. Too bad. I was really hoping to hear her Bahston accent through her writing as well. ----------- So how'd the game go? I saw ARod had the Yankees' first hit of ST. Gaudin and Mitre both pitched scoreless innings. I didn't see anything after that.
