Sorry, I've gotten sidetracked and not brought my point through all the former posts. The original point was that FA's are waiting for CC to sign to set the tone for the market. He's already received an astronomical offer. However if teams get into a bidding war for him and it goes up it only benefits other FA's because then the teams losing out on CC bid war for the remaining FA's. This is something many posters in this thread have said before, so nothing new. SO, my point is that up until now, FA's (other than CC) must be receiving bids under what they thought their market value was, because if they met their self-set market value they would have inked contracts already (like Burnett). But they haven't.
Except no one is going to get into a bidding war with the Yankees. Every other team is offering below the Yankees and banking on location/familiarity.
Really, though, it is in no free agent's interest to take an early offer, no matter how large it is, unless they feel the offer won't be there if they wait a bit longer. And that's not really the case with any of these free agents. Sure, Hal said the offer won't be there "forever," but he's also not stupid... he's not going to keep a deadline just for the sake of keeping it, possibly hurting the team in the process. It's kind of ridiculous, actually. The winter meetings haven't even started yet. Typically, you don't see too much in the way of signings until the meetings or even after the holidays. But it seems like everyone's getting antsy about a lack of signings this offseason.
oh so now if you dont get any big free agents you have to do something to save face because its so embarrasing...but if the yanks do sign big free agensts theyre stupid and throwing money around like drunken sailors...love the red sox fan perspective.....its complete stupidity
I never said they were being stupid about it. I'm glad they're being competitive about it, makes beating them so much funner. But tell me, if the Yankees don't sign any of their main targets, even after throwing around all this money, the luster of a brand new stadium and in the best division in baseball, they wouldn't try to sign the biggest name left?
Two questions: 1. Why deal with a hypothetical situation like that, considering it's rather unlikely to happen? 2. If the "biggest name left" is also the best player left, how would that be more about saving face than improving the team?
It's more then possible to happen. CC obviously has reservations about NY, Lowe is open to pretty much anyone on the east, and Burnett is all but gone. Teix dosen't seem to have much desire to play in NY, either. Biggest name left is Manny, who is far from the best player available. Not saying he wouldn't be a massive improvement, but in terms of the Yankees hopes and even some hopes of people in thie thread, JUST getting Manny would be a disappointment.
So they guy that insists wins are a great stat for pitchers is suddenly a Bill James disciple? Regardless, it isn't true. James' win share calculations are 48% offense, 52% defense. He places a fairly good deal of emphasis on good defense. He doesn't like some of the defensive STATISTICS that are used, but that doesn't mean he thinks defense doesn't matter.
I'm pretty sure if they didnt get cc, they would scramble to get burnett or lowe. Even if they didn't, they could survive with bringing back pettite and trading for a guy like matt cain
Okay, if it happens that they lose out on all of those players you mentioned, who would you say IS the best player available? And even if the fans (or people in the front office) do think it would be a disappointment to "JUST" get Manny, what does that have to do with the Yankees trying to "save face" instead of improving the team? Besides, the reason I say it is unlikely to happen is that - if CC goes elsewhere - the Yanks will throw ungodly money at the others who are left. Regardless of whether those players want to play in NY (which I think is overblown in the cases of CC and others), I have a hard time believing that the MLBPA will stand by quietly to watch more than one player in an offseason turn down the largest contract to settle somewhere else. And I'm pretty sure the reason that Hal said that CC's offer won't be there forever is that they know they'll need to move on other players at some point, and knowing whether they will be putting a six-year, $140 million contract on the books will dictate which other moves they make.
Finally. Cashman may be having a stroke of common sense seep in. Either that or the Steinbrenners have. All they have to do now is pull that insanely ridiculous offer to the fat man. "Yankees GM Brian Cashman traveled to Washington on Thursday to meet with first baseman Mark Teixeira, The New York Times reported." http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8900916/Report:-Teixeira,-agent-meet-with-Yankees-GM
I never said wins are a great stat for pitchers. I disagreed with you saying they were a horrible stat. 2nd, yes James talks about defense being important, that's not what I was saying. I was saying the difference between a .98 and .99 fielding percentage is so minuscule, that in most situations it won't cost the team a win.
For those who prefer signing Teixeira over Sabathia, courtesy of an Abraham blog post: Gennaro's Students Break It Down
OT: Furcal shoots down Oakland http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3749763 That was a 8.5-10 million dollar/season offer. Furcal has his market value in the 13-16 range, but really he is in the range he was offered. Beane had it on the nose.
Fielding percentage is a basically pointless stat for outfielders anyway, and you're sort of ignoring the fact the Manny would just be a downgrade as much as a black hole.
I mispoke. At the point when the big 3 pitchers and Teix sign, then Manny will be the best available. Till then, he is not. My fault for not clarifying. Don, Cashman has been in contact with Boras previously, and it's been a combination of chats about Lowe, Teix and whoever else Boras has in his stables. I'd say that out of those 2, Lowe is more likely to goto NY. He is going to command $16 million a season on a 4ish year contract, ARE YOU OK WITH THAT DON? And Furcal is stupid. He just screwed himself. He saw what Renteria got in SF, figured he could get more and now just eliminated his hottest follower. He won't get the money he is looking for, not with a select few teams dabbling in the middle infield market. More teams are looking at trades rather then FA.
Okay, but in that case, I go back to what I said prior to your comment about Manny being "far from the best player avaiable"... You said: And my question was: If the "biggest name left" is also the best player left, how would that be more about saving face than improving the team? Sure, okay... let's say the Yanks miss out on their top choices. Bummer. They're still going to try to improve their team. If Manny is the best way left to do that, I want them to do it. Now, if they went out and tried to sign someone who was a relatively big name but didn't improve the team (like Furcal), then you might be onto something. I don't think signing Manny would represent that, though. (ETA: And I don't see them signing a "big name" that wouldn't also help the team. Even more importantly, I don't see them trading away their best prospects just to land a big-name, unless it's clearly a great move for the Yanks.)
Absolutly, I agree. Manny is a deffinete improvement in their lineup, but he not a player the Yankees targetted, and he is what he is, the last ditch effort for a team that missed out on their main hopes. I think the Yankees will sign Lowe, easily. They seem to be tiring of CC waiting, after that insane offer. But if they do miss out on CC, I think Manny ends up a Yankee by virtue of "we need a blockbuster signing".
