As you said, Hurts was mid second round, still a high pick. Purdy I guess, but again, is he FQB for a team without Shanahan level coach? Shanahan made Jimmy G and Mac Jones look just as good. Dak is really the only guy picked in the last 10 years below mid second round who is a really good starter for the team that picked him. And there was a A LOT of QBs picked at that range - about a 100 (94 I think). As far as QB1 or 2, I am not arguing that point. My point is if you pick in mid/late rounds hoping to get a FQB, you might need to do this 100 times before you get Dak level player, if you ever get one. Simpson is a different story. He will be a 1st round pick (or second at worst), because I think his tape was not bad. But I am concerned about lack of starts, injuries in the the only year he played, small size, older age for number of starts. Still, unlike the mid round guys we just discussed, he has more than 1% probability to succeed. But as you said we let him sit, we don't know who he is in 2026. Are we then trading up major capital to draft a QB in 2027 without knowing who Simpson is yet? I highly doubt it. If we draft Simpson, he is the guy for the next year also. We just need to be ready to pass on 2027 QB class if we get him.
My point about below mid or so second round does not apply to Simpson. And over time what I observed is the opposite of what you are saying: the teams are getting better at selecting QBs with some potential higher. Which is why a lot of QBs who are making play-offs are 1st round picks, many top 3 picks. We already had this discussion before. So, if you want 1% probability of success, sure spend a mid round pick on a QB. That is just not wise statistically speaking, unless you want to get a long term back up. Then it is OK. Now I completely agree with you that we may not be in position to pick a QB next year. Or if we are it could cost arm and a leg. We don't know. Which is why I am hedging my bets where I say if we can get blue chip talent at 16, that will take a sting of a trade up we will have to make next year, since we already drafted a star this year with 16 (or some sort of a trade up from 16). So, get two studs this year at other positions, and next year focus on QB, even if it costs arm and a leg. But if we can't get a blue chiper at #16, I would be OK to draft Simpson. Then at that point most likely we will be looking at 2026 and 2027 to evaluate him, and if he fails, the next QB draft choice would have to come in 2028 or later.
Yeah…we’ve had more general conversations about where to draft QBs in other threads too…in one of them I went through all of the teams last year and overwhelmingly the starters were first round picks. It was not even close…a few second rounders, and then a couple of outliers like Dak and Brock. Agree with Borat that had Purdy been drafted by almost any other team, he doesn’t become what he has become… The data definitely shows that if you need a starting QB, especially a good one, then you pretty much have to take him in round 1…round 2 could work, but the odds are much much lower. It really just speaks to how teams draft QBs more than anything…many of them get overdrafted because the position is so important. I won’t speak to Simpson as I haven’t watched him play outside of the playoffs, so I am by no means an expert. I do think though, that worthy or not, he’ll be a first round pick…the position is too important, there are too many teams looking for a QB upgrade, and while he may not be a consensus first round graded QB, I do think he is the consensus #2 QB in this one QB draft. So I agree…if Mougey likes him enough, he’s going to have to draft him in the first round…I don’t think he’ll make it to round 2. Question is will he be there at 16? Does he take him there or trade up or down to get him? That I have no clue…but I do think he’ll go round 1. And while it’s not a great use of picks at all, if Mougey likes him and takes him, I’d have no problem doubling down and ALSO taking a QB in the first round next year. We are that desperate, and while not ideal, because as Borat has pointed out in other posts, we may not really even know what we have after one year where he probably won’t start all year, I would still be fine with it…having two QBs with potential is not a terrible thing…
I wanna point something out… There’s a lot to unpack in that simple statement. Clearly, Purdy has the talent to be an FQB in the NFL. Should it matter that it took him landing on the 49ers, along with Shanahan, for that to come to fruition? Or, are the rest of the “teachers“ in the NFL that substandard? How is it that only one or two or three individuals, in the NFL, are capable of taking a QB and making something out of them? personally, I think it’s a hell of an indictment on the rest of the NFL if only a tiny fraction of their coaches are capable of putting a serviceable quarterback on the field. To me, if you actually had a well-balanced football team with decent players on all the levels of each side of the ball you may not need to have a world beater under center to have a successful campaign. Darnold may not have been what he was with the Jets but, clearly, he had just enough talent to win a Super Bowl. Yes, he was a first round pick… However, that didn’t seem to matter on the New York Jets.
i disagree with that statement too on Purdy. I think certainly some teams could've ruined him but he's clearly talented enough to be a starting QB anywhere. I think it points more towards issues with player evaluation in NFL front offices. You had a prospect in Purdy who is smart and experienced, he started 4 years and 48 college games with 100 career touchdowns. He was a Fiesta Bowl MVP at a non-traditional power like Iowa State. There's no way he should be lasting to the last pick in the draft. I was pretty wrong about Purdy myself, he's more athletic than people give him credit for anyway I've made my feelings known on Ty Simpson but the people comparing him to Purdy is giving me stomach issues. The only way they are similar is that they are both short and even that's just a height thing, Purdy was a lot more stout. So they are just comparing Simpson to the single most limiting, aka, worst feature, about Purdy
Seems to me many of us keep saying the same thing in a myriad of slightly different ways. Some based on statistics and some based on personal opinion, nothing more or less. To me for this year it can be boiled down as follows. There are two QBs on this draft with a first round grade. And there is a very high probability that they will be drafted in the first round. So is up to our GM to determine if he has the potential or not. Period end of story. Second we have no clue what next year will bring, and if we are even lucky enough to move up to get one, not to mention there will be uncertainties with whomever we select. Third, I disagree about Purdy, or any other jewel that went unnoticed in the early rounds, it’s up to a good OC and QB coach to get the most out of them, if he went to GB, or the Rams, or KC, or a team with a top OC you would have had similar results. Lastly, the notion that if we pick Simpson we want know enough at year end to make a decision is very weak. We will know a hell of a lot more, thru practice squad, preseason and a full season of practice even potentially playing later in the season if Geno gets hurt. Mahomes was a back up and it didn’t take long for them to figure out what they had, as in many other high draft selections. Bottom line. If we don’t have the needed savvy at OC and QB coach now then it doesn’t much matter who we pick and when.
Agree with both of you… this is where the combine ruins it for me. These kids have a body of football work and then the combine rolls around and some kid(s) light it up to the point where they’re on the field work is tossed aside and only the ridiculous measurable are left standing. Anthony Richardson is, without a doubt, the most perfect example of this in motion. Trey Lance and Zach Wilson as well. It bothers me that general managers, at least the unproven ones, spend more time focused on these very limited measurable‘s versus solid football tape. As much as I was down on Mendoza, at the beginning, by the time the season was over and the playoffs completed. He most certainly had the fieldwork on tape to support going in the spot that he is now sitting. The one thing that I feel is finally getting it’s due is coaching matters. There’s nothing fantastical about the systems that Shanahan, McVay or Reid run that would dictate to me that they have some kind of magic sauce when it comes to quarterbacks. It would be my guess, they are probably fantastic teachers where the others are not. Maybe that is what organizations should spend most of their time doing; hunting down honest-to-goodness coaches/teachers versus trying to find that unicorn QB or other positional players. let’s face it, they all can’t be Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. Those men are rare, however, finding a guy like Brock Purdy or Mac Jones or Dak Prescott is far easier. Hell, it even makes more sense, when it comes to finding coaches, because you can have a coach on your team for decades versus a player only being available for, at best, 10 to 20 years. Food for thought…
