As you said, Hurts was mid second round, still a high pick. Purdy I guess, but again, is he FQB for a team without Shanahan level coach? Shanahan made Jimmy G and Mac Jones look just as good. Dak is really the only guy picked in the last 10 years below mid second round who is a really good starter for the team that picked him. And there was a A LOT of QBs picked at that range - about a 100 (94 I think). As far as QB1 or 2, I am not arguing that point. My point is if you pick in mid/late rounds hoping to get a FQB, you might need to do this 100 times before you get Dak level player, if you ever get one. Simpson is a different story. He will be a 1st round pick (or second at worst), because I think his tape was not bad. But I am concerned about lack of starts, injuries in the the only year he played, small size, older age for number of starts. Still, unlike the mid round guys we just discussed, he has more than 1% probability to succeed. But as you said we let him sit, we don't know who he is in 2026. Are we then trading up major capital to draft a QB in 2027 without knowing who Simpson is yet? I highly doubt it. If we draft Simpson, he is the guy for the next year also. We just need to be ready to pass on 2027 QB class if we get him.
My point about below mid or so second round does not apply to Simpson. And over time what I observed is the opposite of what you are saying: the teams are getting better at selecting QBs with some potential higher. Which is why a lot of QBs who are making play-offs are 1st round picks, many top 3 picks. We already had this discussion before. So, if you want 1% probability of success, sure spend a mid round pick on a QB. That is just not wise statistically speaking, unless you want to get a long term back up. Then it is OK. Now I completely agree with you that we may not be in position to pick a QB next year. Or if we are it could cost arm and a leg. We don't know. Which is why I am hedging my bets where I say if we can get blue chip talent at 16, that will take a sting of a trade up we will have to make next year, since we already drafted a star this year with 16 (or some sort of a trade up from 16). So, get two studs this year at other positions, and next year focus on QB, even if it costs arm and a leg. But if we can't get a blue chiper at #16, I would be OK to draft Simpson. Then at that point most likely we will be looking at 2026 and 2027 to evaluate him, and if he fails, the next QB draft choice would have to come in 2028 or later.
Yeah…we’ve had more general conversations about where to draft QBs in other threads too…in one of them I went through all of the teams last year and overwhelmingly the starters were first round picks. It was not even close…a few second rounders, and then a couple of outliers like Dak and Brock. Agree with Borat that had Purdy been drafted by almost any other team, he doesn’t become what he has become… The data definitely shows that if you need a starting QB, especially a good one, then you pretty much have to take him in round 1…round 2 could work, but the odds are much much lower. It really just speaks to how teams draft QBs more than anything…many of them get overdrafted because the position is so important. I won’t speak to Simpson as I haven’t watched him play outside of the playoffs, so I am by no means an expert. I do think though, that worthy or not, he’ll be a first round pick…the position is too important, there are too many teams looking for a QB upgrade, and while he may not be a consensus first round graded QB, I do think he is the consensus #2 QB in this one QB draft. So I agree…if Mougey likes him enough, he’s going to have to draft him in the first round…I don’t think he’ll make it to round 2. Question is will he be there at 16? Does he take him there or trade up or down to get him? That I have no clue…but I do think he’ll go round 1. And while it’s not a great use of picks at all, if Mougey likes him and takes him, I’d have no problem doubling down and ALSO taking a QB in the first round next year. We are that desperate, and while not ideal, because as Borat has pointed out in other posts, we may not really even know what we have after one year where he probably won’t start all year, I would still be fine with it…having two QBs with potential is not a terrible thing…
I wanna point something out… There’s a lot to unpack in that simple statement. Clearly, Purdy has the talent to be an FQB in the NFL. Should it matter that it took him landing on the 49ers, along with Shanahan, for that to come to fruition? Or, are the rest of the “teachers“ in the NFL that substandard? How is it that only one or two or three individuals, in the NFL, are capable of taking a QB and making something out of them? personally, I think it’s a hell of an indictment on the rest of the NFL if only a tiny fraction of their coaches are capable of putting a serviceable quarterback on the field. To me, if you actually had a well-balanced football team with decent players on all the levels of each side of the ball you may not need to have a world beater under center to have a successful campaign. Darnold may not have been what he was with the Jets but, clearly, he had just enough talent to win a Super Bowl. Yes, he was a first round pick… However, that didn’t seem to matter on the New York Jets.
i disagree with that statement too on Purdy. I think certainly some teams could've ruined him but he's clearly talented enough to be a starting QB anywhere. I think it points more towards issues with player evaluation in NFL front offices. You had a prospect in Purdy who is smart and experienced, he started 4 years and 48 college games with 100 career touchdowns. He was a Fiesta Bowl MVP at a non-traditional power like Iowa State. There's no way he should be lasting to the last pick in the draft. I was pretty wrong about Purdy myself, he's more athletic than people give him credit for anyway I've made my feelings known on Ty Simpson but the people comparing him to Purdy is giving me stomach issues. The only way they are similar is that they are both short and even that's just a height thing, Purdy was a lot more stout. So they are just comparing Simpson to the single most limiting, aka, worst feature, about Purdy
Seems to me many of us keep saying the same thing in a myriad of slightly different ways. Some based on statistics and some based on personal opinion, nothing more or less. To me for this year it can be boiled down as follows. There are two QBs on this draft with a first round grade. And there is a very high probability that they will be drafted in the first round. So is up to our GM to determine if he has the potential or not. Period end of story. Second we have no clue what next year will bring, and if we are even lucky enough to move up to get one, not to mention there will be uncertainties with whomever we select. Third, I disagree about Purdy, or any other jewel that went unnoticed in the early rounds, it’s up to a good OC and QB coach to get the most out of them, if he went to GB, or the Rams, or KC, or a team with a top OC you would have had similar results. Lastly, the notion that if we pick Simpson we wont know enough at year end to make a decision is very weak. We will know a hell of a lot more, thru practice squad, preseason and a full season of practice even potentially playing later in the season if Geno gets hurt. Mahomes was a back up and it didn’t take long for them to figure out what they had, as in many other high draft selections. Bottom line. If we don’t have the needed savvy at OC and QB coach now then it doesn’t much matter who we pick and when.
Agree with both of you… this is where the combine ruins it for me. These kids have a body of football work and then the combine rolls around and some kid(s) light it up to the point where they’re on the field work is tossed aside and only the ridiculous measurable are left standing. Anthony Richardson is, without a doubt, the most perfect example of this in motion. Trey Lance and Zach Wilson as well. It bothers me that general managers, at least the unproven ones, spend more time focused on these very limited measurable‘s versus solid football tape. As much as I was down on Mendoza, at the beginning, by the time the season was over and the playoffs completed. He most certainly had the fieldwork on tape to support going in the spot that he is now sitting. The one thing that I feel is finally getting it’s due is coaching matters. There’s nothing fantastical about the systems that Shanahan, McVay or Reid run that would dictate to me that they have some kind of magic sauce when it comes to quarterbacks. It would be my guess, they are probably fantastic teachers where the others are not. Maybe that is what organizations should spend most of their time doing; hunting down honest-to-goodness coaches/teachers versus trying to find that unicorn QB or other positional players. let’s face it, they all can’t be Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. Those men are rare, however, finding a guy like Brock Purdy or Mac Jones or Dak Prescott is far easier. Hell, it even makes more sense, when it comes to finding coaches, because you can have a coach on your team for decades versus a player only being available for, at best, 10 to 20 years. Food for thought…
my theory is that because QBs are largely drafted by their arm talent and whether they played on a good enough team to exhibit it. But we don't have a good way of reliably predicting success in NFL where instincts and IQ matter more given the speed of the game. Also I think the better teams have a way to amplify QB strengths better and hide their weaknesses. Poster child is Brady. Devise systems for him to distribute the ball quickly (which he was good at). Less pressure; hides his lack of athleticism. Makes the GM's job easier in developing a line because they could focus and emphasize run blocking more, since he got rid of the ball quickly. So IMO it's not simply whether the coaches are super-teachers for QBs; it's the whole system it's true most starters and the better QBs were first round, but it's also true most were NOT QB1. I'm hoping we get a smart QB rather than the proverbial guys who "can really spin it" or "make all the throws" and then they show up as duds come game day
Simpson at #3? I think I've read it all in this thread lol What are you some of you basing this on? Clearly it can't be his very limited, shaky game tape. Guys with his profile more often than not bust big-time in the NFL. I watched him a few times and he's so raw and inconsistent it's not funny. I'm on record saying that he goes nowhere in the top half of the first round. Only 15 starts in college. Injury history. The epitome of a low-upside, high risk pick. This is what happens when you have so many months leading up to the draft and people run out of shit to talk about in the media. Mougey will be run out of NY if he makes this pick. He has major Zach Wilson 2.0 bust potential.
I don’t recall seeing that. You mean at 2? I’m guessing 95% of those in favor of Simpson are either in the 16 camp or 33. With the rest at either 44 or not at all.
Previous page suggesting he could go as high as top 3. I pray that they don't even think about touching him at 16. 44 or not at all sounds about right.
Correction - It sounds good in an always half baked theory. One that typically refuses to simultaneously acknowledge the accompanying reality that you can draft or "hit' on the right guy....and still get a wrong/terrible end result. But i guess when you've been beaten down as much as the NYJ have within this reality even the smartest of people start buying into the wishy washiest of theories to cope Drafting Simpson on any logic short of a set-in-stone commitment/belief he can be the future here would/should be a fireable offense on Mougey imo. *Maybe* there is a little wiggle room on that if we end up with pick #1 next year, or if everybody ends up getting fired at year's end. But for the most part you only make that 1st round pick (he ain't falling outside the 1st) with a plan to be out on QB next year. With Simpson as your expected week 1 starter in 2027. Drafting young kids just to have a young kid you can slap a looking-6-moves-ahead projection on is dumb. Especially for a team that typically can't even get out of first gear long enough to even sniff a winning season. Hell, we could probably just have Geno play QB for us on the fairly cheap for the next few years. So being absolutely convinced Simpson (or whoever) can and will be a better NFL QB then Geno already is right now should pretty much be the lowest "draft him" bar that needs to be cleared.
But isn't it at least equally as dumb to have no viable eggs in the quarterback basket and still fail to pick at least one or two annually until one actually hatches?
In a real world scenario where we are actually going to acknowledge that the Purdy/Hurts/Dak egg, for example, never hatches and realistically dies in that basket had he been drafted *here*? No. This isn't San Fran and we ain't handing this outcome possibility egg over to Kyle Shanahan. You have to rationally account for the fact and reality that you will probably be trying to hatch that egg in Antarctic conditions. While also needing them to "hit" in much smaller windows of opportunity that would come with the draft-a-qb-every-year playout. The equal'ish outcome opportunity being implied with that egg as you lay it out is basically a lie that is typically never doing any of that. If you really believe in Simpson that is one thing. But chasing after low probability flyers be a better NFL QB then what we already have now, and who was got for next to nothing, isn't worth sacrificing the much higher probability of adding a pro bowl level piece by spending that 1st or 2nd round pick pick on something else.
All I know there are no guarantees in football. Even less guarantees at quarterback and even less guarantees at quarterback of the New York Jets. So, assuming 2027 is going to be the saving grace because we have 3 picks is a bit naive. I love Manning and Mateer as prospects as well but I’ve seen this movie before. My eyes tell me the kid can play. He’s coming from pro concepts with Grubb. His arm talent is good not great. His size isn’t ideal. His mechanics are very good. His athleticism is good not great. In my evaluation of him he is Daniel Jones 2.0. That’s where I feel he is on the measuring stick as a prospect. He’s a pretty clean prospect. Kinda funny because most had Jones going mid-late first to early second. Yet, he went 6th overall. Which I predicted by the way. For me the 16th overall pick is not a franchise saver. Take a shot on a quarterback and if it’s a bust. You have a whole new coaching staff and a few picks to try again in 2027. Bottom line is to put all your eggs in a miracle 2027 draft is more a Hail Mary than taking a chance on a smart quarterback in 2026 and another in 2027 if he doesn’t cut it.
I was actually most surprised reading your take that you'd ok drafting Simpson and also then drafting over him a year latter. I mean at most and barring injury Simpson would likely project to get what...the back end of this season if we are losing almost every game in the first half? Such a small and likely bad team driven sample size to make that kind of bust determination on imo. That he wouldn't even get a full season opportunity to bloom as a 1st round pick is crazy town to me.
