Sanchez's Career vs Top QB's 1st Two Seasons

LINK?

Romo never doubled his int total year over year.

Farve did doubled his int total 2009 to 2010, but Farve's 2009 numbers were off the charts good. He only threw 7 ints in the regular season, which for him was amazing.

Garrard did double his int total from 07 to 08, but in 07 he only threw 3 ints and played 12 games. It's not hard to double 3 ints....

 

Awesome intelligent analysis right there.

The link is right here. I meant to say interception RATE, not interception totals.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6888206/apartment-hunting-sin-city

 

I like looking at stats, so the dropped ints thing sounded interesting. Especially for fantasy football.

The "ints doubling" thing sounded like BS. QB's don't usually double their int number unless they're injured or they had an inanely low int number the year before.

The thing is, I googled around and couldn't find the Romo/Favre/Garrard thing. So I had to look them up individually and from the looks of it, using the stat with Favre/Garrard to project Sanchez to have more ints next year is misleading.

If I had to bet, Brady is more likely to double his int number last year (from 4 to 8) than Sanchez is to double his int number (from 13 to 26). Of course that's because Brady had an insanely low number and his career norm is about 10 ints a year and 26 ints for Sanchez would be insanely high.

 

Devin McCourty is better than Sanchez.

 

Here it is^, How many of these QBs lead there teams to a 4-2 playoff record and 2 CG in their first two seasons??

 

Well, against the bungles Mark threw a sure pick only to be dropped in the 1st qtr. For some reason he just throws the ball where it should NOT be thrown, he's NEEDS to stop doing this or he will never become a great QB.

 

What kind of Dumbass stat is dropped INTs??

 

Grantland isn't a reputable source of information, for goodness' sake.

 

This is not only the most dumbass stat ever used, but that would be like counting Sanchez dropped passes and assuming because he had X dropped passes by WRs last season his completion % will go up this year. So F'N Stupid. Dropped passes or INTs is completely out of Sanchezs hands.

 

Oh interesting.

It's still pretty deceptive though. If by interception rate he means attempts to int ratio, the numbers are still screwed up a bit.

Romo went from 1.6% to 3.2% but only played five full games.

Romo played a very short season, and basically had 3 multi int games, one of which was the bears who finished 5th in ints on the season. Basically, you'd have to account for the strength of schedule as well with Romo, and it's reasonable to think he might not have doubled his interception rate had he played the whole season (or even a reasonable number of games, say 10).

Garrard went from 1.7% to 4%! Ouch. But the funny part is his season was statistically much better than 2009.

2009
16 games
516 attempts
60.9 completion percentage
3597 yards
15 tds
10 ints

2010
14 games
366 attempts
64.5 completion rate
2734yards
23 tds
15 ints

If you're going to tell me that Sanchez will gain 5% on his completion percentage, 2% on his int ratio and 50% of his td total, I'll gladly take it.

Farve of course shit the bed compared to his career year in 2009.

I think the stat is still a bit misleading. In Romo and Garrard case they had less games, plus Garrard had a better year than in 2009 despite the state. Farve's 2009 was so good, his 2010 was bound to fall off. I don't think the dropped ints was a good indicator of what was to come (Well, maybe in Farve's case).

It is an interesting stat though.

 

When you are projecting the development of a player, you need to ensure that the baseline stat is at a comparable level.

Sanchez, unlike everyone on that list, came out as a Junior with 16 games of college football and without the benefit of 4 years of college development. Some of those QBs had 2-3 times as many starts and reps in college as Sanchez. That doesn't even include those who sat their first year in the pros (or several years in Rodgers case) as opposed to Sanchez starting as rookie in what really amounted to his senior year in college.

Throwing a chart out there comparing Year 1 & 2 doesn't explain anything. You see more when you apply common sense and slide the data to reflect a comparable baseline. More is revealed about Sanchez as a Qb by comparing his year 2 to the other samples year 1 than throwing sh%t against the wall under the guise of "intelligent discussion" to foster debate.

If you go by the stats that your provided, Sanchez is more apt to turn into Jamarcus Russell than anyone else on that list. However, we all would agree that this won't happen (that isn't to say he will be Peyton Manning either) because the work ethic is there and there was meaningful improvement from Year 1 to Year 2.

The bottom line with Sanchez is that his play this year will dictate his future in the NFL. If his play, barring injury, improves this year he can remain on track. If his play stagnates or worsens, like Henne, we will be looking for a new QB. Despite what Dolfags say, the issue with Henne isn't that he was that bad (they often point out he had comparable stats to Sanchez), it was that Henne - unlike Sanchez - showed no signs of improvement from his first year as a starter to year 2 as a starter. Making the Henne situation even worse is that he was a 4-year starter at Michigan and sat for the first year in Miami. The is a large enough data sample available on this guy to demonstrate that he has hit a plateau in his development.

EDIT - Also, as this year is a critical year for Sanchez's development, I think that is why the FO didn't rework his contract at this time. There is no point in giving this guy an extension until they see how he performs.

 

You don't need a reliable source to get simple facts:

2009 Favre:
521 attempts, 7 interceptions, 1.34 interceptions per 100 attempts
2010 Favre:
358 attempts, 19 interceptions, 5.31 interceptions per 100 attempts
His interception rate quadrupled (3.96 to be exact)

2009 Romo:
550 attempts, 9 interceptions, 1.64 interceptions per 100 attempts
2010 Romo:
213 attempts, 7 interceptions, 3.29 interceptions per 100 attempts
His interception rate doubled (2.00 to be exact)

2009 Garrard:
516 attempts, 10 interceptions, 1.94 interceptions per 100 attempts
2010 Garrard:
366 attempts, 15 interceptions, 4.10 interceptions per 100 attempts
His interception rate doubled (2.11 to be exact)

 

Yea speaking of Grantland how is Kevin Kolb undervalued, he has never played before.