The latter part of your argument can be applied to the assets given up for the pick. The percentage of those players succeeding in the NFL is also low as well (Look at Cleveland/Philly - think Philly cares about what the players they could have drafted are doing?) Need to look at it in a different light. The percentage for finding a successful QB (though low) in the first round is substantially higher than finding one in the later rounds. You have to play the odds.
Last ten years have been nothing but good to very QBs in first : Ryan Goff Winston Bortles Luck Newton Bradford Hmmmm ...sounds like a new trend to me One or a few will eventually win a SB..you watch...Matt Ryan Cam already been there
Forgive me for being lazy but didn't read the entire thread. But if it wasn't mentioned yet, we want Houston to keep losing in order for Cleveland to be a trade partner for us. Cleveland will most likely go QB with first pick and they have Houston's 1st rounder which is 5th right now. That pick looks like it could get to 4 reasonably. We are currently at 8 and could get to 6 reasonably. Moving up 2 spots won't be a mortgage the future situation if the player the Jets want is there.
the draft vale chart says the difference between 6 and 4 is 200 points or a third. If we needed to use Seattle's second to get it done, I wouldnt be mad if it was for a QB we loved.
Nothing but good? Russel,Quinn,Sanchez, Freeman, Locker, Tebow,Gabbert,Ponder,RG3,Tannerhill, EJ Manuel, Weeden, Manziel,.. now Bortles is good to very good? One or more may win a Superbowl but none will be the reason for their team winning one. And they are all way above this year's crop.
The draft value chart means nothing on draft day, especially when a QB is in play. Last year's trades. San Francisco 49ers traded No. 2 pick to Chicago Bears for No. 3 pick, No. 67 pick, No. 111 pick, and a 2018 third-round pick Los Angeles Rams traded No. 5 pick to Tennessee Titans as part of last year’s deal to select Jared Goff Buffalo Bills traded No. 10 pick to Kansas City Chiefs for No. 27 pick, No. 91 pick, and a 2018 first-round pick Philadelphia Eagles traded No. 12 pick to Cleveland Browns as part of last year’s deal for Carson Wentz Browns traded No. 12 pick to Houston Texans for No. 25 pick and a 2018 first-round pick Minnesota Vikings traded No. 14 pick to Eagles for Sam Bradford Seattle Seahawks traded No. 26 pick to Atlanta Falcons for No. 31 pick, No. 95 pick, and No. 249 pick Green Bay Packers traded No. 29 pick to Browns for No. 33 pick and No. 108 pick Seahawks traded No. 31 pick to 49ers for No. 34 pick and No. 111 pick New England Patriots traded No. 32 pick to New Orleans Saints for Brandin Cooks
Yeah without even reading all that it's gonna cost a lot more than a low 2nd rounder to move from 8 to 3 or 4 to take a QB..
But the question you need to answer is: how many of those "wasted" picks would have produced better results? The statistics show that after the 1st round its not much better than catching lightening in a bottle to find a FQB. And to speak to some of your other comments regarding building the team first and then getting the FQB, yes that would be ideal, but you can't dictate when your FQB comes available. While you're focused on building your team, your FQB could pass you by. And of course to build your team up like the Pats and the others you mentioned, you first need to have the brain trust to do it. Do you really think Macc and Bowles are that brain trust? My "solution": Fire Macc and Bowles, hire a Pres. of Football Ops and let him find the GM and HC to build a winning franchise; draft the best QB available, trading up to do it if possible.
Look. We can go back through all the past drafts with hindsight and say would have should have could have. First round QBs taken over the past decade success rate is about 7 pct. QBs taken in the top 16 have been much more successful than those taken 17 -32 of the first round. I agree you take a FQB when you have the chance. Watson was there for the taking last year and I was one of the few here who wanted to see Mac draft him. But you don't give up multiple premium picks for a QB just for the sake of taking a QB. If you want to sum up my post. I will make it simple for you. I don't believe you give up multiple prime picks to move up for a QB, just to take a QB. The talent doesn't match the hype of this year's QB class. As of now we don't even know who is coming out. I just disagree that we have to get into a bidding war with teams like Buffalo who can offer 2 first this year a second and 3 thirds this year and not miss a pick in the draft. What would we have to offer to beat that? This year's first both 2s our 3rd and 4th, plus next year's 1st and second? I don't see a prospect of that value and certainly not the 3rd of 4th best prospect being worth that price. Our roster is bare. Has no depth and no game changer on either side of the ball. Look at the games we played this season, so many close ones we couldn't close. Better talent and this team would be a playoff team. Add a "good" QB to the added talent and now the playoffs aren't the goal but the Superbowl is possible. Miss on the QB giving up multiple picks and we are right back here calling for the next coaching staff and GM to be fired. I'm all in on the rebuild and have been begging for it for years. I'd prefer another losing seasons or 2 to build the roster the right way. Young free agents, drafted talent, and a young QB. It's a process that takes time. Yet every one is looking for a quick fix. Trade up no matter what it cost, fix the o line in free agency, sign every FA. We have 100 mill. You don't build a consistent winner that way. People have to remove the emotion for a moment of clarity. Yes QB is the most important player but it's still a team game. Right now who do you see as a can't miss FQB , that will be there to trade up for at 4 or 5. The top 2 prospects are going to The Brown's and Giants. Even if we fire everyone and Woody sells the team, the draft pool stays the same. The roster is still shit. There are some nice young pices but alot of holes and you need draft picks to fill those holes.
Tony I think the last thing you mention is true. If Rosen and Darnold are off the board, assuming the Jets draft 6th, they can probably stay put and still get their remaining guy.
Excellent points about the QBs supporting cast in college, how their rankings will change, and how posters positions will change between now and the draft. I respect you opinion, but disagree that you don't trade up for a QB unless you have a team to pair him with. In one sense, that's exactly what the Jets have been doing since 2011 or 2012. It's what Mac has done with Petty and Hack. They've been signing JAG QB and continuing to build the team. What has that gotten them? Their draft ranking has not been good enough to get a FQB or that stud pass rusher. They're still building their team. IMO you have to get that FQB when you get the opportunity. The Jets could have had one in either Bridgewater or Carr, but no, Idzik had to draft D. IMO, if the Jets are ever going to turn things around, they have to bite the bullet and go all in on getting a young FQB. That means trading up in the 1st round if necessary, but taking a QB in the 1st round, then TOTALLY committing to that QB by designing the offense around him, and not trying to force him into a system that doesn't fit his skill set/strengths. That also means accepting that they're going to start him day one (or as soon thereafter as possible) and let him struggle and learn, and as a result, their W-L record probably won't be very good. Yes, there are some good young QB prospect who are underclassmen, but they may not come out next year, or they could get seriously injured, or their HCs, key OL or WRs leave and then they struggle like Allen has this year. The Jets simply can't keep kicking the QB can down the road if they hope to realistically challenge for the Lombardi Trophy any time within the next 5 years or so, and if they aren't interested in doing that, then I'm no longer interested in the Jets. Signing a FA QB is the worst possible thing that they could do. It will keep them mediocre. They won't be good enough to get over the top, will keep building and improving the team and will make the playoffs some years, will have lousy draft position, and will have no chance to get that young FQB when their team is set. There are many things I think you are spot on regarding, but not this. You unfairly (and perhaps falsely) assume that just because the Jets draft a QB in the 1st round that they won't improve the team around him. Why would they do that? They have a ton of cap space. They could easily sign a new starting C and OG, and a good RB, plus shore up the CB position and maybe even add an edge rusher. The Jets have a pretty good WR corps, but they could even add a WR via FA or the draft. They could also add another TE to the mix via FA or the draft. Demario Davis probably has been our best player this year, but I doubt that he will be next year. On D alone, Adams or Mayes and quite probably both will be better. Assuming we get a decent QB in the draft, Enunwa, Anderson or ASJ could be our best player.
Well, by tools, I was speaking broadly. I primarily meant experience and leadership. He was fairly mobile, had a decent arm, his fundamentals were ok, but he just didn't look like a prime QB prospect to me. He didn't pass my "eye" test. Everything was OK, but nothing really stood out. He wasn't exceptionally accurate, or have a cannon for an arm, or wasn't a great scrambler, runner. I also remember reading an article that year that up to that point, not one single underclassman QB had succeeded in the NFL. That was the icing on the cake for me. Also, it wasn't just that I didn't like Sanchez at QB in that draft. Aside from Matthew Stafford, I didn't like a single one of the QB prospects in that draft, and I didn't even like Stafford that much.
As several posters have said, did you see his team play without him? How do you know that he didn't elevate the play of his teammates, or that his teammates were so bad that Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers couldn't have elevated their play? When WRs can't get open or catch the ball, what's the QB supposed to do? He can only do so much? He can't block for himself and catch the passes that he throws. My concern with Allen is that we don't have the right HC and CS to develop him. I think he could possibly be every bit as good as Carson Wentz, and maybe eventually as Aaron Rodgers, but unless we fire Bowles and replace him with an Offensive-minded HC who will design or have the offense designed around that QB and then surround him with talent, it won't matter.
What you say in your first paragraph is true, but those positions are all easier to add and in greater abundance than FQBs. The Jets could always upgrade those in subsequent drafts and FA periods, but I think the receiving the corps the Jets have now would be pretty darned good for a rookie QB. If they can make McCown look good, they can make a rookie look good. I understand your point about trading multiple picks. I would hate to have to do that. That's why I wanted the Jets to go with Petty and Hack this year and if they went 0-16 or 1-15, fine. They'd be in prime position to get the best QB and not have to trade the ranch to get him. To be honest, I agree with you about Darnold, and pretty much wouldn't want to trade up for Rosen. I just don't think that either are worth trading the ranch for. I'd rather stay put and take one of Mayfield, Jackson or Stidham. The thing I definitely believe is that the Jets have to get a new young FQB prospect in the draft this year in the 1st round or top of the second if that's where Stidham winds up being rated. As much as I liked Teddy Bridgewater when he came out in the draft, I wouldn't want him now over drafting a potential young FQB. If they want to sign him to a one- or two-year deal and let him compete for the starting job with the rookie QB, fine, but it would be with the understanding that his level of play would have to be very high, or that he would be getting replaced with the rookie sooner rather than later. FA comes before the draft, so the Jets could do a lot of fixing to their depth and roster before the draft even starts. Also, as usual, they will probably add camp cuts. The team could be radically different by the time next season starts. In fact, if Mac is worth keeping as GM it should be a markedly improved team. I think they have some good young players on the team, just need a better, offensive-minded HC, and the QB. I think the only sure way that the full rebuild happens is if they draft that young FQB prospect. With a Cousins or Alex Smith, it will be too tempting to just go all in FA and D, and then they truly won't ever be bad enough to be in the proper draft position to get a FQB.
Again, I said very clearly that you don't trade up for a QB, just to trade up for a QB. You only give up multiple premium picks for a prospect that you have absolute confidence in. Remove the top 2 prospects in this year's draft, who ever they may be( still don't know who will declare) and tell me who is your can't miss QB? As far as FA QBs, there will be a hand full of younger QBs available. It rarely happens but guys like Cousins with at least 5 prime years left, Bridgewater , Bradford, Keenum ,(2 will be free agents) every one would be head and shoulders above the 3rd best prospect in this year's class. No one is advocating a player like Fitz or McCown as a one year rental. That's what the Jets have done in the past. I don't assume that they won't improve the team in free agency, I quite fairly have assessed the FA market and the chances of rebuilding the o line are slim. Spending big on other teams garbage rarely works out. The cream of this year's o lineman is Nate Solder. Not exactly sure that's what the Money should be used on. They can sign an old center, Guard. Still have little to no depth. What RB do you suggest they sign? Bell? Doesn't really fit with the direction the team is going as far as character and culture plus he wants to be paid like a QB. Center, Richburg would be nice but I doubt very much the Giants let him walk. The WR corps is serviceable. No game changer. Complimentary players with out a true 1. Your not drafting one either if you give away multiple picks. Davis may or may not be our best player next year but he was this year. As for Adams and Maybe, there is alot of room for improvement. I know you don't watch the games but they have had their fair share of struggles. Antonio Gates looked like he did 10 years ago.. If we trade up to 3 and give up multiple picks this year and next. That QB better be the best player on the team next year. If Enunwa (a #3 WR), Anderson or ASJ are our best player next year, MAC needs to be fired.
You just quoted me moments ago saying that 2 of the 3 players I mentioned could be our best player next year, now they are easily replaceable. I think McCown made the receiving corps look good ,not the other way around!. The looked pretty bad with Petty throwing them the ball. How many times did our Receivers make a great catch to bail out McCown on a poorly thrown ball? Now your saying you want to stay put for a QB but you just said we have to trade up for a FQB in the same post I mentioned above.Which is it? Stidham is probably not coming out. Why would you sign Bridgewater and tell him he is just there to hold a seat untill the rookie is ready. I don't think the Saints did that when they signed Brees . A young FA QB who can play at a high level for 5, 8 ,10 years negates the immediate need to over pay to move up for an unproven prospect who would be 3 rd best in a questionable class. Watson was the pick last year. Mac missed badly letting him pass. The team will definitely look much different next season,we have alot of FAs, will sign some low tier guys, hopefully land a couple big targets but we still need depth and that comes with the draft. Just drafting a QB in round 1 does not make him a FQB. That's what your missing on.
No, not "just for the sake of taking a QB", but for the sake of enabling you to win a SB. Very few teams have won a SB without a great QB. Can it be done? Yes, and it has been, but not often. If you measure success by winning the SB - and that's the only measure I'm using - then their best chance is to find a FQB. Using other draft picks to get this guy is the "cost of doing business". And if a GM is afraid of missing, then he shouldn't be a GM because he doesn't even trust his own ability to assess talent. First, who says we'll be in a bidding war with Buffalo? Even if we do get into one, maybe we use other assets besides draft picks. Worst case is they outbid us. At least we'll know we did everything possible, and we'll still have our assets. You can't have it both ways. If the "roster is bare" how did we wind up in so many close games, and be so close that adding a mere "good QB" would put us in the SB? Well first of all the key is to not miss on the QB. If you DON'T miss on the QB, adding him to the current roster may put them well on their way to being in a SB in a year or two. But if Macc doesn't find a QB - regardless of using draft picks or not - he's got to be fired, so what's he saving those picks for? If we had any reason to believe that this rebuild would only take a year or two with this regime, maybe people would have patience, but what we've seen so far three years and barely any progress. I will say that progress has been made, but not three year's worth. I'm not okay with that rate of improvement and from what I've seen I don't think we'll get much better from Macc and Bowles. And yes, trade up whatever the cost IF you believe your FQB is there. If you don't then obviously you don't go that route. And no one has said "sign every FA". Unless you have a blueprint, simply stockpiling draft choices and using them doesn't guarantee success. The BPA plugged into the wrong system will fail, and that's not his fault, it's your system's fault. The Jets don't have a winning system. They're still trying to win with defense and a low risk/low mistake (ideally) offense. Idzik piled up draft picks and so did Macc, and what did it result in? Draft picks CAN be valuable,but if you don't know what you're doing they aren't. According to the latest news, Rosen is sending a message to the Browns to not take him, so maybe they're willing to trade their pick for more picks and assets? Maybe not, but it's possible. And we don't know for sure who the top 2 prospects will be come draft time. Maybe Rosen falls past the first few picks and all it takes is for the Jets to move up a spot or two. My "bottom line" is that I want the Jets to show dramatic improvement NOW, and they need a FQB to do that. If they don't at least do everything they can to obtain him then I'm done.
You can want what ever you like, I don't think Woody, Mac or any one else in the organization gives a shit what you , me or anyone wants , and I'm sure they feel the same way about your time line. And they shouldn't. They should go about the rebuild they started this season and let it progress in their timeline. If there is a QB in this draft that they want, I'm sure they will try to trade up for him, if they don't feel like the QBs available are worth the trade up, of the asking price is too high, they won't. And we both know that you won't be done. . If you took all the time to quote every post I made on this thread, you obviously have nothing better to do with your time!!!!! You will be right here bitching with the rest of us
Well, you're probably right, but one of these days... Anyway, your points are valid ones, and I'm not going to dissect every one of them. The bottom line is, as you said, that the Jets will do whatever they think is best, which is their prerogative, but if they continue to go down the path of mediocrity in my judgment, then I'll certainly consider taking a "sabbatical".
