So very much of what we talk about is like guessing where the first drop of rain will fall, so I want to breakdown something that is very real: dollars and cents. The salary cap dictates the makeup of our team for the coming years, and I hadn't really taken the time to really dig in and see what our cap looks like going into 2015 and beyond. Below I will primarily be looking at the top end of the salary cap, along with players on rookie contracts. My intention is to make clear how long these players are trully tied to the Jets, and how much the team has invested in them. For organization's sake, I'll be looking at the players positionally. At this point, a major part of the direction of our franchise is for all intents and purposes a blank slate. We are in a unique (but not exactly desirable) position regarding our quarterback. We have essentially no financial or emotional investment in any QB beyond 1 year. Geno has minimal expectations, and a minuscule contract which stands at $1.3 mm against the cap, and basically nothing guaranteed next year. Fitzpatrick is a known commodity, which happens to be not-starting-caliber. Not to mention, he isn't under contract next year. Bryce Petty is a 4th round pick, which means that in terms of expectations, a decent backup is about as much as we can realistically look for from petty. Sure, something wacky could happen presenting one of these players as fixture behind center, but the truth is our team is poised to make a decision after this year: Is the team close enough to a championship to try to add a veteran QB to lead the team for the short term, or do they look to a rookie as the future? This largely depends on who might be available through free agency or trade and in the draft. Very few teams are in a position like this, as most are financially tied to a vet or emotionally tied to a developing QB. Moving on to the running backs, this is another group we have very little invested in. Ivory is in the last year of a very reasonable deal, at $2.75 mm. Ridley and Powell are both on 1 year deals, for $1 and $2 mm respectively. Zac Stacy is around for two years, for pennies. The fullbacks aren't even worth mentioning, both make pennies and may not even be here in September. The wide receiver group is a bit more interesting. Brandon Marshall is a potential bargain at $9 mm, because he is only a year removed from production that far outweighs that level of cap charge. He is under contract for the next three years at approximately the same price as well. The issue is his age, which often hinders former stars recovering from injury, fortunately none of his contract is guaranteed beyond this year. The Jets could cut Marshall next year with no charge at all. Eric Decker is under contract For the next 4 years at $6.5, $8, $8.75, and $9 mm against the cap. Another potential bargain considering the WR market. Decker can be cut next year with $4.5 mm in dead money against the cap, but he will most likely be around for two years. The likelihood of Decker being worth his contract in the last two years is pretty reasonable compared to most FA contracts that are signed, but there is little penalty at all to cut him at that point. Next up is Jeremy Kerley, under contract for 3 years at a very reasonable rate of $3.1, $3.6, and $4.1 mm. Though it wouldn't cost much to cut Kerley at any point, it wouldn't save much until the last year, and he's in his prime. The only plausible way for Kerley to be cut is his total loss of playing time due to WR talent in the future, but even that is unlikely. Devin Smith is going to be on a rookie deal for 4 years, with no opportunity for extensions for 3 years. He will cost essentially nothing for a while yet. No other receiver is worth dissecting. Jeff Cumberland is under contract for two years at $1.9 mm each year, with nothing guaranteed. Though that is a small contract, he will probably only be here this year for continuity for Geno. I expect a TE group deep enough next year that Cumberland will lose his roster spot. Amaro earns around $1 mm a year the next three years on his rookie deal, and will probably be here throughout that. D'Brick hits the cap at just under $12 mm this year, and the next two years at $14.1 and $14.3 mm. He will not be back at that cost next year, and will either sign an extension with a salary decrease or be cut, despite over $5 mm in dead money should that happen. I honestly expect a major pay cut for Brick, but he will be around at a lower cost. His ties to the Jets organization are very strong, and will likely result in his retirement as a Jet. Based on his consistency and durability, I'd guarantee him money for a couple more years for lower salaries. Mangold has 3 more years as well, at $10.4, $8.6, and $9 mm. Still at the top of his game, Mangold will almost certainly be back both years, especially as the salary cap continues to grow. After this year, he can be cut with no penalty, so he may agree to a pay cut with guarantees. Another player I expect to retire a Jet. James Carpenter signed this year for 4 years and will most likely be here for at least 2 of them. He would have to be a colossal train wreck of a player in the first year to get cut, and the only real reason he'd even get cut then is because he gets an additional $2.5 mm of his salary guaranteed if he's still on the roster after this first year. Carpenter is a mediocre guard, so I'm hoping we have more talented players starting after the next couple years and thus push Carpenter off the roster. The $5.5 mm he makes each of the last two years is too rich for a backup lineman, which I'm hoping he is by 2017. Breno Giacomini is under contract for 3 more years at $5.1 mm each year. If he has another year as bad as last year, may be another victim of being too expensive to keep as a backup. After this year cutting him would only cost $1.25 mm against the cap in dead money. Brian Winters, Oday Aboushi, Dakota Dozier, and Jarvis Harrison are all late round picks, each at risk of losing their roster spot. None cost much of anything, and hopefully one or more will improve significantly. Willie Colon will costs nothing on his 1 year deal. I'll do the defense tomorrow, let me know what you guys think of this.
Careful though, sometimes you make bad decisions when under the influence of the white lady.... Coincidence Rex lost all that weight? Or was it byproduct of all the cocaine fueled foot fetish parties??
It's a good post that ties down the one thing that is really true about the Jets offense, which is that it is like a fog on the wind at the moment. We know nothing about what the offense will look like in 2 years because every player on it is either post-prime and expensive or young and unproven. The group of players that is completely missing on the offensive side of the ball are the proven 24 to 27 year olds that form the basis for any strong unit over time. We have literally not a single player in that category at this point. Eric Decker comes the closest as a 28 year old receiver of proven ability at a high level. As I look at the Jets I'm thinking we're 2 years away from another 4-12 unless we get really lucky and I mean like almost lottery lucky at this point. The defense has the young guys who form the basis for a decent team. It also has a bunch of post prime expensive players who will as a group fade away over the next two years although one or two might remain.
We will always have 4-12 potential for as long as our QB situation remains unsolved. I'm in the group who expects Fitzpatrick to be starting games by the end of the season, and either a Rookie picked high or a new veteran under center next year. At the same time, I think we have the cap space to work with to make smart moves, and add some decent drafts and we're no worse off than any team without a franchise QB.
I think we're much worse off than many teams right now because our stars on one side of the ball are all post-prime. Our offensive line basically has 3 average to below average players and 2 stars. 4 of the guys we are likely to be starting are post-prime. We look at Mangold as a rock right in the middle of the Jets offense. What would happen if he went down early next year? 4-12. Next year.
Well, we have a bunch of mid-late round picks invested in the line, and a bunch have been around for a couple years now. I don't want to rely on them as starters, but players often can develop, especially on the offensive line where athletecism is not make-or-break. Now I agree that you need to really invest in the offensive line, with high picks and a good chunk of the cap, but at least we have some depth we didn't have last time Mangold was injured. Also, losing a player like Mangold wouldn't be so detrimental if we had a real signal caller.
It's true that not having a QB is the biggest flaw the Jets have right now. However even if the Jets had a post-prime star QB they'd be looking at big problems on offense in 2 years. The rest of the pieces are very fragile at this point, both in terms of continued productivity from the aging stars and in terms of the likelihood that the young players will fulfill their potential and step into the holes the older guys create as they age out. When I look at the Jets offense I arrive at the staggering conclusion that only 2 players on the offensive side of the ball are likely to have any value at all in 2020. Those being Eric Decker and Jace Amaro. This is because the guys who would normally have real value 5 years out are the 23 and 24 years olds who will be just going post-prime at that point and the 25 to 28 year olds who you can project to still have real value at 30 to as old as 33 with some luck. When I look at 2017 I see a few more players who might still have real value despite being 33, in Mangold and D'Brick. It's not easy to see but the Jets are on the razor's edge right now. All of the young value on the team is on the defensive side of the ball and without an offense that value will be significantly diminished. You could replace Mo with J.J. Watt in an even up swap and the Jets would be almost as likely to go 4-12 in 2017 as they are now.
Wow don't be such a downer. I get your saying that we have no "young core" of players the offense, but that doesn't mean we can't continue to build it. We really need to try to get the most out of Devin Smith, Amaro, and Aboushi as they have the potential to be part of that core. I assume Macagnan is going to put priority on drafting offense unless another defensive superstar falls to us again and in that case we would come out winners anyway. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I'm just telling it like I see it. We've seen this before and there's no point in getting all hyped up when the odds say we'll be crushed more often than not. We signed three of our best players this last off-season and they're all over 30. Our best players on the roster before that were two 30-ish offensive linemen and two young guys who played DE. To that we added another really good young guy at DE because the value in the draft said we had too. This team is like an accordion right now and all it will take is one key injury (either Mangold or D'Brick) and that accordion is going to fold up instantly. Think of the team like the 2005 Jets only Chad is pre-injured.
I wouldn't be so certain about that accordion. When Mangold went out with that ankle sprain Dalton Freeman looked serviceable.
5 years seems to be a long time to project, given the amount of uncertainty and roster turnover in the NFL. I was curious about the rates of roster turnover, and the levels seem to be pretty high with all teams turning over about half their team over 2 intervening seasons, and other teams turning over even 3/4 of the team: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap20...h-teams-have-had-the-most-nfl-roster-turnover As expected, maybe some correlation of better teams with less turnover, but didn't seem like a hard & fast rule. Obviously it would be better to have a greater number of guys you could say will most likely be good 5 years from now, but I think 3 years might be about as far as one can somewhat-confidently predict.
The Jets rushed 19 times for 66 yards after Mangold was injured. Geno Smith was sacked twice for 19 yards and threw a pick. In the quarter and a half that Mangold was in the game they rushed 13 times for 50 yards with no sacks and no picks. Freeman had a 10 yard penalty for holding also. Obviously the next week was Geno's hallelujah game but the Jets rushed for just 104 yards on 34 carries. With Mangold out of the lineup the Jets rushed the ball 53 times and came up with just 170 yards. In the 14+ games he started they had 454 carries for 2,170 yards. They got 4.6 yards a carry with him in the game and 3.2 yards with him out. They've been trying several people out at C this off-season and it's pretty clear their short look at Freeman in the starter's role didn't give them a lot of confidence.
This is true, however the absence of young prime guys and guys in their prime makes the 5 year question very relevant. When you have a team full of quality vets and low drafted unknowns on one side of the ball the odds are excellent you're going to have a major turnover on that unit in fairly short order, particularly when the team is coming off of a long stretch of under-achieving in the eyes of management. It's pretty clear that the Jets are banking on a one year turnaround here. They want to make the playoffs this year at whatever cost and who can blame them (and us) for wanting that? The downside of that effort, and Woody Johnson really spent heavily again to try to get it done, is that the horizon is much closer for the Jets. We're effectively in 2009 again right now, except we have even more questions at QB than we had that year with a highly drafted rookie. We have no QB that you can throw out there with any confidence that the Jets will win 10 games because he's on the field. We also have no QB that we can confidently project will be starting for the Jets in 2016. It really is like 2005 without Chad. Veteran team right now. Good highly drafted core players on defense, like we had with JAbe, Vilma, Ellis and D-Rob. A few key injuries just took the season down and before the dust settled the team no longer had JAbe, Vilma and D-Rob in the defensive core and we were headed into 2009 with a whole new team.
That's exactly why if a Rivers or Brees becomes available within the next year you simply have to go out and make the deal. We're setup in yet another two to three year window scenario. It sucks that this is how it is, but it's what happens when you draft poorly, or trade away a ton of draft picks in years prior. We have 0 players remaining on the roster from the 2o08, 2009 and 2010 drafts (most out of the NFL or backup/below average players). It allows us to gear up and spend like the Yankees in years like this, but it leaves the team bare after the free agent signings have worn off. If we had a couple more solid veterans on the team from those drafts we'd be in a much better position. If Amaro, Pryor, Milliner, Coples, Davis, Aboushi, Reilly, IK, Powell, Kerley can hang around this team then it keeps the depth solid, with Wilk and S-Rich as the stars. The problem is that as you have alluded to, the roster is bare in offensive players that fill the more needed holes. Runningback and short slot receivers are a lot easier to replace than offensive line starters and quality outside NFL receivers. We're basically shit out of luck on offense if none of these young offensive lineman develop into starters; and even still there's no literally no tackles on the roster. If we can somehow keep Rich and Wilk, and Williams develops we can still have a formidable defense assuming we can also keep Davis as well. That solidifies our box so that we can build a foundation around them at a low cost. It might mean moving towards a 4 man line so that the defense can rely on the pass rush. Rich-Wilk-Williams-Coples with Davis roving is a good combination. The problem is the huge waste of talent on the inside with no definitive nose tackle.
Yes. If the Jets can con our way into a quality QB that's the way to go. The window is right now. We also need luck with injuries, particularly on the o-line and we probably need a RG and have our fingers crossed with Carpenter at LG. Of the 10 people you named at the start of the paragraph 5 are likely to be out of the NFL by 2018. That's just the math of NFL injuries and talent. Then we have to get lucky with the other 5. The only person I see in that 10 man group that I think has better than a 50/50 chance of being a quality starter in 2017 is Pryor. The other high picks are 50/50 or less. If we don't find some really good young players on offense soon this window is going to slam shut and it will be 5 years before we're back again.
