QB's taken in the first round, instant success or not?

Discussion in 'Draft' started by tbruner12, Apr 4, 2018.

  1. tbruner12

    tbruner12 Well-Known Member

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    Look at the list of QB's taken in the first round since 2000.



    2016:

    1. Jared Goff, California, Rams, up and coming QB, may be their FQB.

    2. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles, FQB.

    26. Paxton Lynch, Memphis, Broncos, not a FQB.

    ___

    2015:

    1. Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers, still a long way to go before he leads this team in a positive direction.

    2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans, limited QB. Probably won't ever be much more than he is now.

    ___

    2014:

    3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars, average to below average QB.

    22. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, Browns, out of football.

    32. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, Vikings, starting over with the JETS.

    ___

    2013:

    16. EJ Manuel, Florida State, Bills, not a FQB.

    ___

    2012:

    1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Colts, FQB.

    2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins, out of football.

    8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins, not a FQB, yet, if ever.

    22. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Browns, not a FQB.

    ___

    2011:

    1. Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers, great athlete, but not a prototypical FQB.

    8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans, not a FQB.

    10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars, not a FQB.

    12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings, not a FQB.

    ___

    2010:

    1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Rams, injury prone, not a FQB.

    25. Tim Tebow, Florida, Broncos, not a FQB.

    ___

    2009:

    1. Matthew Stafford, Georgia, Lions, good QB, their FQB.

    5. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets, not a FQB.

    17. Josh Freeman, Kansas State, Buccaneers, not a FQB.

    ___

    2008:

    3. Matt Ryan, Boston College, Falcons, FQB

    18. Joe Flacco, Delaware, Ravens, FQB, but not the guy he was early in his career.

    ___

    2007:

    1. JaMarcus Russell, LSU, Raiders, not a FQB.

    22. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame, Browns, not a FQB.

    ___

    2006:

    3. Vince Young, Texas, Titans, not a FQB.

    10. Matt Leinart, USC, Cardinals, not a FQB.

    11. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt, Broncos, was a FQB, but never lived up to the hype.

    ___

    2005:

    1. Alex Smith, Utah, 49ers, just now a FQB, if he really is.

    24. Aaron Rodgers, Cal, Packers, one of the great FQB's.

    25. Jason Campbell, Auburn, Redskins, not a FQB.

    ___

    2004:

    1. Eli Manning, Mississippi, Chargers, FQB, but not like his brother.

    4. Philip Rivers, North Carolina State, Giants, FQB.

    11. Ben Roethlisberger, Miami (Ohio), Steelers, FQB.

    22. J.P. Losman, Tulane, Bills, not a FQB.

    ___

    2003:

    1. Carson Palmer, USC, Bengals, FQB but not above average if you consider his career. Injury bug got the best of him.

    7. Byron Leftwich, Marshall, Jaguars, not a FQB.

    19. Kyle Boller, Cal, Ravens, not a FQB.

    22. Rex Grossman, Florida, Bears, not a FQB.

    ___

    2002:

    1. David Carr, Fresno State, Texans, not a FQB.

    3. Joey Harrington, Oregon, Lions, not a FQB.

    32. Patrick Ramsey, Tulane, Redskins, not a FQB.

    ___

    2001:

    1. Michael Vick, Virginia Tech, Falcons, not a FQB, although Atlanta thought so. Athlete like Cam, but not a pass first guy.

    ___

    2000:

    18. Chad Pennington, Marshall, Jets, FQB if not for injuries.

    14 out of 45 first round picks have became FQB's. Not good odds for the JETS in the 2018 draft.
    Which leads us to this. Out of the 4 top QB's in this draft, only one of them will become a FQB for their respective team according to 16 years worth of draft history. Chances are that guy that we select at 3, won't make it.
    Mac spending all that draft Capitol may be the reason he is fired. That 1out of 4 guy may be gone by the time we select at 3.
    I'm sure at the time, each of the QB's in the past 16 years had scouting reports and plenty of NFL Network hype just like these guys in this draft.
    Some of them had college championships, heisman trophies, and most all of them had FQB aspirations. History shows that roughly 25% get it. Not good odds for the JETS to get it right, if they do force a QB at 3.
    One time in the past 16 years (I didn't include the 17 draft at all due to obvious reasons), the team that took the 3rd QB turned out good.

    Maybe Mac should trade out of 3, and let Buffalo have the flop QB?
    This franchise doesn't need another flop at QB, we have had plenty.
    Notice any FQB's that fell to the 3rd QB taken besides Rothlisberger?
    Does any of the QB's in this draft look like the 2nd coming of Big Ben?
    BPA at 3 is the obvious choice.
    Proof is in the pudding.
     
  2. Catfish Billy

    Catfish Billy Well-Known Member

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    Do it for other rounds. Maybe 25% is the highest chance for any round
     
  3. tbruner12

    tbruner12 Well-Known Member

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    That may be, but we are supposedly drafting a QB in round 1 this year.
    It may be that way since football began. It may be that way when the world ends, but either which way you look at it, it sucks for us in the 2018 draft if we take a QB at 3.
     
  4. Harpua

    Harpua Well-Known Member

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    Draft success rates on any position in the first round is, iirc, around 55%, and lower for every subsequent round. Your cherry picking QB success rate of just one round and not bothering to look into how much lower it gets in the subsequent rounds because that would not support your position.

    Top three in this draft, you take the QB. Even if you feel Barkley, Chubb, or Nelson may be the superior prospect, because no position has anywhere near the value to the team as a QB will.
     
  5. SecretConnection

    SecretConnection Active Member

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    Stafford is a FQB, no doubt at all.
     
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  6. twown

    twown Well-Known Member

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    Lots to chew on there. Fun OP. I applaud the effort. Some logic problems are leaking your bias, however.

    Most obvious is that QB’s taken in the top 5 picks are obviously going to turn into FQB’s more often than any other 5-pick section in the draft, and it’s not close. Most people believe we need to win the lottery here to have “the best chance” at future success. Your basic argument is that buying 1,000 lottery tickets probably won’t win, so just buy fewer instead. Not sound logic.

    What’s the point of saying that Eli is a FQB “but not like his brother”? Don’t penalize him for not being a top-5 all time player. He’s a FQB, period. Stick to your thesis.

    Same thing with Cam Newton. There’s no Cam Newton replica in this draft, so why make caveats to your basic argument?

    Also, the point about “third QB taken” isn’t applicable if he warrants a top-5 overall pick in the draft, which — whoever it is — is nearly a league-wide consensus.

    Again, provocative OP, which is the best thing about this board. Thank you.
     
  7. GreenGreek

    GreenGreek Well-Known Member

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    Instead of looking at the success rate of 1st round QBs, look at successful QBs and identify where they were selected. Given that successful QBs can last 15+ years in the league, "franchise QB" leaves a lot to interpretation. Any starting capable QB is a great pick anywhere in the draft.

    I believe, aside from the rare very deep classes, most good QBs were among the first 4 selected in their draft.
     
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  8. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

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    One thing to note from your list is how rare it is to have more than 1 FQB in a draft. There are only 3 years (out of 17) with 2 or more FQBs selected in round one. Thank you for taking the time to create and post the list.
     
    #8 Noam, Apr 4, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2018
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  9. Mogriffjr

    Mogriffjr Well-Known Member

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    Newton is a FQB.
     
  10. cgrec

    cgrec Well-Known Member

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    Mac is not trading back. He is drafting a QB. Its time to accept that reality
     
  11. tbruner12

    tbruner12 Well-Known Member

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    Not true
    I didn't cherry pick anything. It's right there in front of you. I picked the round we are drafting in this draft for obvious reasons. Most potential FQB's are drafted in round one, right? Most every impact player is for sure. I didn't look into the other rounds, because we won't be picking again until the 3rd round. It wasn't an argument to begin with, it's proof that we may not have a FQB even though we gave up the draft to be in position. No way we lost what we did for our #3 QB on the board. No way.
    If so Mac needs fired before we pick.
    He has proven he won't skip past BPA because of need, so if I was one of the QB lovers of this class I would worry that he will do the smart thing and take Barkley. Rather than waste the draft.
     
    #11 tbruner12, Apr 4, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2018
  12. tbruner12

    tbruner12 Well-Known Member

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    I appreciate the input.
    My point was more along the lines of, not about draft position in the first round. The team that takes a QB, must not be in the cellar as far as the roster and rebuild goes. All the FQB that turned into something good or great, went to a team that could nurture the pick, or the QB was ready to hit the field day one and on a team that wasn't as deep as we are in the rebuild.
    But the truth can't be denied, look at all those wasted 1st round picks on flop QB's. I don't want to do it again.
    I want the team to win and be competitive. If they don't take a QB, and Bates proves that he is the man for the job with what he will have on the roster, I'm all for him finding the guy he believes can carry us into the future. I didn't do the research to see the guys drafted who were drafted by one set of coaches then hung out to dry by the coaches who replaced them.
    Barkley will be the man picked at 3, if he falls, and our top 2 QB's are gone.
    You heard it here first, again. Lol
     
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  13. TwoHeadedMonster

    TwoHeadedMonster Well-Known Member

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    I am with you tbruner12, I think it's foolhardy to put all of our eggs in one basket, and I was against trading up to #3. I'm not sold on any of the top 4 QBs being being among the top five players in the draft. QBs are harder to come by, so they get drafted higher than other players, so I would be surprised if all four aren't gone by the tenth pick, though.

    On the other hand, the Jets need a QB, and they had the resources to get up to that #3 spot and take a chance--and that's what has to happen now. Just because a QB is more likely to fail than to succeed no matter where he is picked doesn't mean you should never draft a QB--it means that when the opportunity comes around, you have to make the most of it, because the opportunity is rare and the payoff is that your team becomes a contender for as long as you can keep him upright.
     
  14. tbruner12

    tbruner12 Well-Known Member

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    Don't be so sure.
    Have you seen his drafting in the past?
     
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  15. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    Are you saying if Darnold and Rosen are gone, Mac will take Barkley? I want to make sure you're going to hold yourself accountable if we take Mayfield or Allen instead of Barkley. And not say that you were right and Mac liked Mayfield/Allen all along. Unless you think Darnold/Rosen aren't the top 2 QBs, in which case you should say who they are now and not after the draft.
     
  16. KurtTheJetsFan

    KurtTheJetsFan Well-Known Member

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    You name a position & there are plenty of 1st round busts going back 20 years. "BPA" doesn't mean "Safest player available" especially since the OP was referencing "Impact players". There's a contrast right there within the OP. "Playing it safe" while also getting impact players is just insanely unrealistic & is not a sound strategy for draft day. The Jets have been going "BPA" in round 1 since basically Bradway w. the exception of Bryant Thomas. Every pick under MAC has been a "BPA" grab. Leo & Adams were considered highway robbery...and many thought Lee would go top 12.Those guys might be contributors...but are any of them "Impact"??

    Additionally "This franchise doesn't need another flop at QB they've had plenty" Well which one of the "Flops" actually happened in round 1? Every single QB the jets have taken in round 1 in their history has at the VERY LEAST resulted in sparking the team,provided stability & granted the team a 2-4 year window of success. In fact..other than Vinny...tell me a time when the team had multi year success WITHOUT drafting a QB round 1?? It doesn't exist..The QB "flops" being referred to actually came more in line w. what the OP wants to do. Pass on any 1st round QB in the face of "BPA" & take a guy further down the line in the draft. THOSE are your Browning Nagles,Geno Smiths, Glenn Foleys, Chuckie Clements, Hack,Erik Ainge & Greg Mcelroy Flops....and it's not as if we nailed the 1st round picks with "Impact players" in those draft years either..

    It seems pretty clear to me that this franchise is at its best w. quality QB play. It hasn't been elite in most cases..but stable, sustainable & competent. It also seems obvious that getting cute & drafting QB's beyond round 1 hasn't worked for this franchise... Now take a look at present day. All our premium resources over the last 10 years have gone to the defense. Our offense has very little in the way of building blocks. The most logical place to start is at QB for reasons already depicted above,It's a passing QB driven league, supply is low AND the fact that this is the deepest QB talent pool since 2004. Beyond all that..this team needs a spark that only comes in the form of a QB. From a fan perspective I'm tired of hearing about how the team doesn't have a QB. I'm tired of the team having an unwatchable passing game EXCEPT when they actually draft a QB round 1 or get lucky w. a journeymen in a year of mediocrity..

    It all makes perfect sense to me. There's no greater "Impact" within the NFL than that of finding a FQB..and based on its history that notion is even further compounded w. the New York jets. Why fight it? They can go back to the play it safe "BPA" model AFTER this year..
     
  17. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

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    veyr godo post indeed even if i disagree on a few of the FQB options, the stats still remain a better chance of a bust then a FQB. even with that said, we need to take a swing even if it's a miss. You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. you also have to realzie a QB class like this one, is a once in a decade class. last time there were 2 really good top end QBs with 3 more possible 1st rounders was a long time ago. We may not see a class this good for another 10 years and we can't keep waiting. Allen is likely the 3rd QB taken and does remind me of big ben a bit.
     
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  18. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

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    yeah i sadly looked that up yesterday and since 1985 we've only drafted 2 QBs in the 1st round. pennington and sanchez. it's amazing how this franchise went 15+ years without drafting a QB in the 1st
     
  19. JohnnyP123456

    JohnnyP123456 Active Member

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    I think a lot depends on what one defines as an "instant success". We could say that Sanchez, though eventually not a FQB, was more of an instant success than many of the other QB's listed. He's had more playoff wins than a majority(roughly I imagine) of the guys drafted after him.
     
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  20. NYJetsO12

    NYJetsO12 Well-Known Member

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    That's right tbruner let's continue with the same stupid sh*t way of drafting that we have for THE PAST EIGHT YEARS* .sure if we get S Barkley Teddy and his Crutches and old man McCown will just have to conduct a few handoffs and boom off to the races and a SUper Bowl for sure

    TBA And drafting defense has cost us millions wasted on losers like D Lee...yep keep the same slop coming..or maybe a cornerback for laughs

    So you hate first Round QBs ?? So what's your solution bud?? Greensleeves posted months ago there is 67% chance a QB as a first rounder is successful..not on a TOM BRADY or A Rodgers level..BUT SUCCESSFUL

    Good for Mac to have the stones to do something different

    * HERE IS MY LIST over nine years of brilliant first round selections: j Adams, D Lee, Len Williams, Calvin Pryor, S Richardson, D Milliner, Q Coples, M Wilkerson. AND HOW DID THAT WORK OUT??? ...NO SB and maybe two all pros?????

    Don't complain if we ACTUALLY GET A GOOD QB from THIS draft...

    10 years ago we got Sanchez ...who took us to a playoff and was no way as talented or college experienced as half of this years big 4

    Finally an Offensive Spark on the way
     

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