And you have to have OL available that you want, also not guaranteed, especially in this draft. And of course, the trading partner that makes himself available has to be offering a good slot and some extras in return. And while I completely agree with upgrading the OL, you don't pass up a chance for a game-changing player. My definition of a "game changing player" is that he makes an impact in every game for many years. Furthermore, there is no guarantee attached to ANY draftee, and certainly not with any of the OL in this draft, so giving up a chance at a player who is considered elite, and therefore, while also not guaranteed to shine at least has more of a possibility to than a lower drafted player, isn't a good trade off. So, unless the Jets are overwhelmed by an offer, they should stay at #6. One such scenario I could see however, and that would be if Cleveland takes Garrett at #1 as expected, drafting Mahomes at #6 if he's there and then offering him to Cleveland in return for their #12, #33, and #65 picks (might have to offer something else in exchange, like maybe Richardson). At #12 they could still grab an impact player like Cook or Fournette, or Howard, and at #33 grab one of the best OL or pass rushers. Again, I'm not really in favor of trading away your best shot at an impact player, but this could still land them one, plus give them more chances to upgrade the team.
There's always some GM who thinks he's smarter than he really is and absolutely has to have some player.
2008 was a weird year for both the Pats and the Jets. The Pats lost Brady on game 1 against the Chiefs. They finished 11-5 and still didn't make the playoffs. The Jets as you mentioned went through a difficult ending with Favre who still played hurt. Eric Mangini I think was unfairly fired. Your win against the Pats in overtime probably prevented the Pats from being in the playoffs. Now looking back, you are correct the Jets did have an opportunity that year to go deep in the playoffs. You could argue they had the pieces including Favre to possibly win a Super Bowl. I guess you can argue bad luck was a factor for both the Pats and the Jets that year. So my argument of having Favre still didn't help may be flawed due to the circumstances of 2008. So I must admit you are right and I am wrong here. But if we assume a healthy younger Favre was playing for the Jets in the past several years, would you agree that would not be enough? The offensive line today is not the same as it was in 2008.
A younger healthy Favre would have put the Jets in the playoffs in 4 out of the last 6 years, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015. They would have been in the Super Bowl conversation going into the season all of those years also. Individual players usually don't have the kind of impact that we think they are capable of on the overall W-L record but a healthy Favre being 2 games better than Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bryce Petty is a no-brainer in my opinion - even including the fact that 2 wins in 16 games is a lot to attribute to any single player. I added 2012 to the tally because Sanchez cost the Jets at least 2 wins that year that a replacement level QB would not have lost. He was that bad.
Listening to NFL Radio on the way to work This upcoming draft is knee deep in high quality CBs and Linebackers from pick #1 to 40 and beyond A defensive pick at 6 would be completely dumbass
and its usually preceded by "there are not a lot of good options at (enter pick number here)" then why is another team trading up? drives me nuts too
No, it wouldn't. Just because there are a lot of "good" or high quality defensive players in the draft doesn't mean that there are 40 immediate impact players who have the potential of being perennial All Pros. I get that you want an offensive player, and in an ideal world, there would be a great QB or LT we could take at #6 and not look back, but that isn't the case in this draft. One or two of the QBs might be rated that high following the Combine and team workouts, but I don't think Mac should or will take a QB that high.
Bret Favre was obviously a great QB and may have lead many of a team to a Super Bowl. Not to sound like Dr. Phil, I wonder if he could have handled all the temptations of New York. For example bars being open late, many pretty women to socialize with, and etc. Sometimes I also wonder if Namath ever reached his true potential because of these temptations. During the few times I have visited N.Y. city, I have found my self spending a lot more money than I wanted and also lacking very little sleep afterwards.
Rethinking things, if the best OL is taken we should take Pat Mahomes The Qbs we have like the OL are trashy At this rate you and I will be in our 80s and the Jets will still be scoring less than 16 pts per game But you will be happy for some safety or CB that made a great tackle for NY but Ill be depressed we lose another game
As we get into the draft, i do expect the jets to get an itchy finger and move down from the 6 pick. They kept their 1st pick both prior years and are likely more inclined to gather added picks this year than in years past. Of course finding a legitimate partner is the key so lets see what happens.
There are 4 QB's that people are talking up at this point. There are several defensive players that people think are top 5 quality. Assuming that a couple of the QB's will get over drafted in the top 3 as seems to happen in many seasons at this point that will lead to both a shortage of remaining QB prospects by the 6 and one or more falling defensive stars, like Leo Williams in 2015, still on the board. If the Jets can't find a decent trade down at that point it is because they lack imagination and basic sales skills. I think the Browns case raised by ColoradoContrails is particularly likely to occur. The Browns have a surplus of picks and they're unlikely to take a QB on the #1 with the defensive prospects available. Getting some extra picks out of them when they're likely to see the Jets as a QB-picking threat on the #6 should not be a hard task.
Actually, trading down from #6 would show me they lack imagination. I don't care how many picks they get - short of a bunch of #1s and #2s - they're not going to rebuild this team in one draft. What they NEED to do is make sure that every pick they have counts. They need as many "starters" as they can grab. Trading off the #6 pick makes no sense to me since they're guaranteed an impact player at that spot (well, ok, we're talking about the Jets, so maybe "guaranteed" is a reach). You know who I want at that pick: Mahomes, Cook/Fournette/Howard, but passing up on an Adams or Foster - or miracles of miracles, Garrett - would be foolish IMO. I'm not saying I would never trade down, but I would have to be pretty overwhelmed with the offer. The Cleveland scenario I suggested might get me to bite, but if I had Mahomes in my pocket already, the more I think about it, the less likely I am to do it, but I could see Macc doing it.
Mahomes is a 2nd round prospect. He's Ryan Tannehill as his upside. Maybe he does better than that but do you really want to reach for Mahomes the way the Fins reached for Tannehill? I'd much rather trade down and if Mahomes is still there late 1st or early 2nd take him then.
I hear you, and I'm not a professional talent evaluator or GM, but from what I've seen of him, he's going to be a FQB. His ability to make plays is superior, and his "mechanics problem" is overblown. As I referenced in a post on the Mahomes thread, if you look at his body positioning, it's more like when an infielder has to dive to make a play, then come up throwing and make an accurate throw to a base: you don't get points for "style", you just make the play. That's what Mahomes does, and anyone who discounts that is ignoring a guy who is going to win games that other QBs will lose. And yes, his "gambler's mindset" will likely cost some games in his early years, just like it did Elway, Favre, to name two who I see him akin to, but his upside is worth those growing pains IMO. Would I like to believe that he'll fall to the 2nd or 3rd round? Sure. But it's not going to happen. I can see the Browns and Bears both taking him form sure ahead of us at #6 from the rumors I've heard. If we want him, and he's still there at #6, I wouldn't roll the dice that he'd last to my 2nd ro 3rd pick.
It's easy to look at a QB prospect and see him as the next FQB. The thing to remember is that nobody knows whether a guy is going to work out or not. Sometimes the NFL has a consensus on a guy, like John Elway, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck, etc, and those guys do tend to work out. Although the NFL had a consensus on Vinny Testaverde, Jeff George, David Carr, JaMarcus Russell and Sam Bradford as well and no FQB's came out of those picks. Short having the #1 pick in a year where there is a consensus FQB available the best way to actually get an FQB is to sit at your appropriate pick and hope the guy you like drops to you. The next best way is to trade the farm for a guy that everybody considers to be the next FQB in waiting. What the Raiders did in 2014 should be a lesson for everybody who is looking at any crop of reasonable prospects in which none stand out as clearly above the others. They took the value on the #5 pick and then just sat on the #36 and waited to see who would fall through to them. They did this despite having a clear preference for Carr who had played locally and would help them sell tickets. They didn't panic when two teams traded up in front of them. The Browns trading up to the #22 for Manziel would have sent other organizations looking for Carr into a panic and had them trade up into the late first round for Carr. Instead the Raiders just calmly sat back and watched the Vikings trade up for Bridgewater. They calmly sat back and waited out the Texans second pick on the #33, which could easily have been Carr. They took Carr on the #36 and everything was golden for their rebuild. Mahomes may be a strong QB candidate at this point. The question is does that validate using the 6 pick on him preferentially over the other QB's that will likely be there? Does that validate taking him over the excellent defensive prospect likely to be there on the 6? Does that validate not trading down in the draft and getting more value for what is likely to be a multi-year rebuild process? Obviously the Jets have had trouble finding a QB over the last decade. If they pass up Mahomes and he is taken somewhere right behind them and is good it will sting some. However if they take Mahomes and he is not good it will also sting a lot. In the former case they will have another prospect and somebody else will have Mahomes and that will sting. In the latter case they will have nothing and that will sting more.
We can still trade down in 2 months and see what falls our way and I like that idea...especially since without Mahomes there is Rosen and Darnold waiting in 2018...(I am assuming a complete meltdown in 2017 say 3-13) Of course if we find no trade down partner we have a decision to make at #6 If that's the case, now that N Mangold is gone the odds are heavy that Mac finishes what he tried to do with Tunsil last year and starts rebuilding the OL ...thus Ramcyk at 6 imo FTR we can get even luckier and grab Mahones in some later round
Nothing would surprise me with the Jets, but I don;t see any OL worth the #6 pick. Furthermore, the first OLs to go will likely be Tackles, not Interior Linemen, so I see Macc looking to the 2nd or 3rd rounds to begin addressing that.
