They'll survive the year you'd figure. But I can see both going in black Monday 2019 once Allens hopelessness and lack of understanding in reading defenses (pre snap reads especially) and a completion percentage that falls from a putrid 56% in college to a Sanchezian 52% or so in the pros starts to show that this kid was another major, major whiff.
If Allen does not play in 2018 they will last through 2019. Maybe, longer if they give Allen just 3 or starts and can paint a promising future. But an Allen pick means time to update your resume for the FO of whatever team takes him. I am hoping he goes and destroys the Bills or Phins for a decade. That would be beautiful.
My guess would be the same amount of time they will last if they select any other qb and not have the pick work out. No matter what they are a virtual lock to be back for 2019. After that record will become a factor
I'm not even sure he'd last a decade. I think by year 5 he may wash out of the league. He just doesnt have the proper field vision or accuracy. Can you imagine what Belichick would do to him pre snap?
I think 3 or 4 years but the last effect was from his failure might last a decade. Generally a team only has an opportunity to draft a potential FQB once every 10 years,
We've picked 6th, 6th and now 3rd in the 3 of the last 4 years. We have had plenty of chances, but not taken the swings.
I’m not even sure Allen is on the Jets draft board. Even if he turns out good, he’s going to require time to develop (2-3 season by many accounts). Time is the one thing this regime is quickly running out of. The last thing they can afford is putting him out there for the preseason and having him look anything resembling Hackenberg and that’s a reality early on with Allen.
If the Jets don't have a winning season this year they should both be gone 2 seconds after the season ends. They had 100 million bucks to spend for the second time and a bunch of top picks going into this draft. A third sub .500 year in a row and they are history..they should have been already.
You have to be able to pick low when a potential FQB is available and generally that means top 2 or 3. When we took Williams Marriota and Winston went 1 and 2. Last year many teams only gave Trubisky a 1st round grade and appears our FO was one of those teams. We have ended up drafting 5 1st round QBs while I have been alive starting with Namath. It has worked out to one roughly every 10 years. It takes quite a long time to recover from a failed 1st round QB pick and to get that opportunity again where a team is in the right place and right position. If we do not hit on a QB this year we might not draft another potential FQB in round one until the 2030 decade. The same goes for whomever the drafts and fails with Allen. It is likely to be another 10+ years until they get another chance.
Depends on whether Allen reaches his ceiling in the NFL or not. I hope the Jets don't take that risk if Rosen is on the board when they pick.
OMG We all want to follow the Mods advice and be careful we bash the pick only etc etc ..and .support the new QB? But TBH a JA pick will be ssooooo depressing for the reasons stated above..I dont think I could handle another decade of failure...ill be outa here and wont look back To me worse case scenario would be Cleveland taking Mayfield..freeing up every other QB It could stay that way if the Giants also pass and take Barkley Then NYJ pass on Rosen/Darn for Allen??? Makes no sense...complete chaos ensues Woody should FIRE them on the spot imo
Cleveland has had three chances in the last 3 years... your basing this ten year number off sustained mediocrity and a belief that you have to draft in the top few picks to land a great QB prospect. The Jets surely could have drafted a QB with franchise leading potential last year. They may not have ranked Watson or Mahomes that high, but many did. You can also pick high an completely blow the selection on guys like Bortles, Russle, Leaf, ect. Yes picking higher increases your chances of finding the right guy, but those guys can be found in later picks and sometimes later rounds. Just because the Jets have only drafted 5 guys in your life time does not mean that you only get that chance once every ten years, it means the Jets only took that chance that often. If Mac had not held out hope for hackenberg last year we may have taken the shot then. Getting the right guy means we probably don't take another short for at least ten years, draft the wrong guy and we are right back here in 3 or 4 years doing this all over again.
I respectfully disagree. Taking and failing on a high 1st round QB takes a toll and makes it harder to invest such a pick. Teams will go other directions on a journeyman QB or try 2nd rd picks and hope. Yes, in theory a team could take a QB every year or 3 to 4 as you suggest but in reality it does not work that way. Sometimes FQBs are not available, sometimes teams may make the wrong evaluation, sometimes teams will be picking too far back and other times they will simply not be ready to invest emotionally into a FQB. A failed 1st rd FQB takes a much bigger toll than the simple failure. It is a like an earthquake there will be aftershocks in this case for years afterwards. If we our 1st rd FQB fails its likely another 10 years until we take another chance the same goes for whomever takes Allen.
But that would be the team's fault for ignoring chances simply because they were burned. But did getting burned with any other failed picks keep them from drafting those positions the next year or two? One of the Jet biggest problems is that they've always - since Werblin and Ewbank - been risk-averse. They took O'Brien instead of Marino as one of the worst cases. And if they pass on Rosen because of his "attitude" it would just prove they haven't learned a thing. The best chance of being a consistent contender is to have a FQB, and the best way to get a FQB is to keep swinging for one every year until you hit. Trying to be "safe" and "prudent" is for those willing to settle for simply making the playoffs and not caring if they get to a SB.
They will be gone after Allen hits his 10th reporter on the sideline with an errant pass, so after the 3rd practice....
I am not disagreeing with the Ron Wolf philosophy but in reality we are likely looking at 10+ years. Teams once burned will often lack the stomach to emotionally invest, not be in the right draft position, not be ready to invest or not have a guy there they rate that highly. It is kind of like following in love it has to e the right place, time, person and so many other factors. You have to be lucky and everything else has to be aligned. FQBs or potential FQBs do not come around every year.
All your points are valid. I we just disagree that the chance at a QB comes along at such a time frame and how high you have to be drafting to land a team leading QB. The chances do go up the higher you draft, but it is not limited to the top of the first round only. Yes some years lack the QB prospects, such as the year we took Geno, but to me that does not mean you don't have the chance at one only once a decade. We may only take the chance every so often.
There’s a lot of variables here, the biggest being (1) Bridgewater’s recovery and (2) Mac’s OL moves. Here’s the scenarios in descending order of probability: (1) and (2) don’t work. Very Likely If Bridgewater’s knee is blown and McCown has to start the season with a terrible OL, then Mac/Bowles will have to play Allen sooner than later. Allen will get exposed in the vein of Leaf, Boller, and Gabbert. Mac/Bowles might get the 2019-2020 season, but it’s more likely that they’re canned after 2018-2019. The Jets franchise is set back another few years. (1) doesn’t work out but (2) does. Likely If Mac’s OL moves work out, and McCown has to start, then the Jets should be fairly competitive this year. With time in the pocket, McCown can put up career numbers (as we saw last year). Additionally, if/when Mac/Bowles decides to start Allen, the additional time can mask his slower processing time. Comparisons will be made to a young Flacco type. Future will look bright. Being in the hunt for the playoffs will get Mac/Bowles extended, likely for three years. If the trajectory does not continue, expect Bowles to be fired in the 2020-2021 season, with Mac to follow that offseason. (1) works out and (2) doesn’t. Unlikely If Bridgewater is totally healthy and returns to his 2015 form (or better), then the Jets should be very competitive this year. As a Viking, Bridgewater operated under constant duress and showed an ability to move in the pocket and throw the ball at various launch angles. (Additionally, without AP, the Jets can run out of formations that are not the I or offset-I, which should dramatically increase viability of play/run action schemes.). The current receiving talent on the Jets is improved over the 2015 Vikings. Bridgewater faced stiff competition in the NFC North and, if in form, can lead either deep in the hunt or into the playoffs in 2018-2019. Allen does not see the field. With the Jets likely in the playoffs, expect Mac/Bowles to be extended for four years. This buys everyone, including Allen, time to develop. (1) and (2) work out. Very Unlikely The Jets look like they have a franchise in Bridgewater. They’re competing for the AFCE Division title. The playoffs are a lock. Pigs start flying. Peace breaks out in the Middle East. There’s a student loan bailout. Jets fans are finally happy. Allen becomes an afterthought. Mac/Bowles are extended for five years.
