Good Article about overdrafting QBs

Discussion in 'Draft' started by SolidGoldBowles, Mar 28, 2018.

  1. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    I agree most teams will come to a consensus, but that doesn't mean they're right.

    That all the remaining picks in the first round haven't worked out isn't typical of most years.

    Leo was definitely considered the BPA on draft day. The question was whether we'd take him or Vic Beasley who was a need because he played on the outside. Turns out Beasley is the better player.

    I'm glad Mac didn't take another DL, he would have gone too far lol. Then again, somehow we might need a DL now.
     
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  2. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

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    Yeah beasley turned out to be a real beast. That's why i said at the end of the day we are all just assholes taking our best guess including the GMs themselves. You win some and you lose some.
     
  3. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 2018 Thread of the Year Award Winner

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    Next year, Ed Oliver from Houston.
     
  4. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

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    Thank you for this. The BPA is lazy scouting and that is why the Jets are where they are. Who did we need last year Jamaal Adams or Deshaun Watson? If the Jets took Barkley I wouldn't be upset at all. With all the risk with these QB's I think Barkley is a homerun.
     
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  5. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

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    Hindsight is exactly what get's GM's fired. How else do you evalute their worth? I give Macc a grade D minus.
     
  6. TurkJetFan

    TurkJetFan Well-Known Member

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    how about the article showing the QBs that fell in drafts and teams missed on by not taking them early?

    Wilson, Prescott, Brady, Rodgers, Carr. How about Watson falling to late first?

    It's easy to point out players that teams missed on by drafting the wrong QB. But that is basic math. There are more players that aren't QB's than QBs.

    this article is stupid.
     
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  7. Red Menace

    Red Menace Well-Known Member

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    I though his article emphasized BPA over position of need? The jets need a FQB and are going to pay dearly if they bypass impact players if they don't choose the right QB.

    Most of us have been saying that the top rated QBs in the draft are not the best players in the draft. There are possibly only 2 QBs that will be impact players from this draft.

    While I understand how some guys don't like the Jamal Adams selection, he is considered an impact player based on this article, within 2 years he will be a top player in the league and that's what a top 10 pick should become.

    This is why I was against trading away so many picks this year, I bought into the Jets spiel to the fans about drafting as many good players through the draft so when they hit on the right QB he would come on to a team that had plenty of impact players on both sides of the ball.

    Instead they have gambled that this years crop of QBs will glean a FQB, however with no oline and few weapons on offense especially if Anderson is suspended, the offense will be at the bottom of the league in terms of production again.

    Leaving us to wonder if the guy they chose is the right guy, which we know only time will tell, so we might have to endure another 5-11
    season with Mcown as the starter and waiting to see if the rookie QB will see the field at all, once again.

    Seems like we have seen this story before.
     
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  8. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

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    I think you completely missed the point of the article.
     
  9. AJT73

    AJT73 Well-Known Member

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    My response to this article is what is the most important position in football? Simple answer the qb position. For that reason qbs are always overdrafted. There are more missed first round qbs than any other position. Teams are desparate for qbs and will do anything to get a franchise qb. Look at these four qbs. No Luck, Manning type qbs. Four of them will be in the top 10 and possibly in the top 5. The Browns, and the Jets are desperate for a qb, the Giants could use an heir apparent (but might not take one), the Broncos do they have a guy for the next 5 year plus or do they need one? The Bills are desparate for a qb along with Miami and Arizona. That's just 7 teams looking for a qb. There are only 4 qbs with first round grades and Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph with second round grades. That's 6 qbs with 7 teams looking for a franchise qb and there are teams like the Steelers (is Ben retiring or not), the Saints (only two more years of Brees)? and New England (Brady is playing to 100 we don't have to include them) that need qbs or qbs of the future.

    So yes qbs are overdrafted and many are busts but when you have the most important position and the bottome third of the league and a handful of teams with veterans a few years from retiring always looking for a qb and there is buzz about qbs they'll always be over drafted. 2011 seems like a special case as 3 of those 4 guys are now out of the league or backups with no chance of being a starter any time soon. History will repeat itself. More than likely one of these qbs will be a good to great NFL qb, one could be an average NFL qb, one will be a bust and one will be a journeyman backup.

    That's the NFL and especially with qbs. History repeats itself and hopefully for us we are the lucky ones and we get the good to great qb.
     
  10. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

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    that is completly true but also the reason why
    which is a big issue. teams miss out on stud players in an effort to reach for a QB due to position importance. Which in the long run, really hurts the team

    yup, all true with 1 exception. darnold grades out just as good as luck. he's the best QB prospect since luck, better then goff or wentz, or trubisky. The rest of the guys however you are spot on

    Not even. they are just being overrated due to the position importance and need. realistically speaking, darnold is a top 5 talent in the draft. rosen is more of a mid 1st rounder (10-20 range), Allen is more of a late 1st round talent (15-32 range), Baker and jackson are really 2nd-3rd round talents. however all 5 of these players will be "overdrafted" and likely all 5 go in the 1st round.

    pretty much all you can hope for these days.
     
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  11. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Adams will be an impact player. Leonard Williams was drafted in the same spot and was a better player in college than Adams, He's regressing and not the impact player they thought he would become. Now with Ricardson and Wilkerson gone he can be doubled teamed and be even less of impact.
     
  12. Red Menace

    Red Menace Well-Known Member

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    I'm going to respectfully disagree, Adams and Mayes have one year under their belt, they are the type of players Mac should be looking for in the draft, I'm not talking about safeties but guys who can play at a high level coming out of college.

    I bet you will see both of them take steps forward this year.

    Williams on the other hand is being asked to simply tie up linemen, the problem is Jets don't have the LBs to take advantage of the fact that teams are double teaming him.

    Let's be honest, even with Sheldon, Mo and Williams, they still struggled to get pressure on the QB.

    The Darron Lee pick is one that I believe will hurt the jets, while I hope I'm wrong, I don't think he is going to develope into the type of player that a top 20 pick should develope into.

    So as the article that @SolidGoldBowles highlighted, passing on high impact players because of needing a FQB better work, and drafting based on such need can set this team back a couple of years if they miss.
     
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  13. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

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    exactly. williams isn't playing bad at all, he's just not posting up monster stats. snacks didn't post up big stats either, but it's due to his position. eating up double teams and stuffing the run is just as important as rushing the passer. If you can't stuff the run all those pass rushers and high paid CBs are negated because teams will ram it down your throat. Nothing is more demoralizing for a defense or tough to watch for a fan then watching the other team just line up and stuff it down your throat every play. Not only that but allowing big runs leads to a lot of 2nd and 3rd and short which can result in big plays down the field and easy to convert 3rd downs keeping drives alive. just because a player isn't getting 10 sacks doens't mean they suck. even getting QB pressures resulting in bad passes is good work that doens't show up on stats sheets.

    Darron lee is actually the best player so far drafted in the 1st round of that draft that we could have taken (not including people drafted before we took him) he's also been a day 1 starter for 2 years and had 94 tackles last season 2 FF and 3 sacks. He also had 9 TFL (tied with suh, ahead of snacks, luke keauchly, and marcel darious) Sure his coverage skills are lacking but same can be said of 99% of NFL LBers these days. they aren't CBs and NFL RBs are getting better and better each year at catching out of the backfield.

    When the draft grades are set, in reality usually only 5-6 players per draft are predicted as pro bowl players . in other words, if you don't pick top 10 you aren't expected to land a pro bowler. this year there are 5 of them (darnold, barkley, nelson, chubb, and edmunds) all will be gone before 10. when you pick at 20 like we did with lee essentially you are picking a player "with a chance to be a good NFL starter" and that's exactly what we got with lee. he's a good NFL starter.

    basically in a perfect world
    1-5 = pro bowler
    6-15 = good NFL starter with the chance to be a probowler
    16-25ish = chance to become a good NFL starter
    25+ = could become NFL starter
    Top of 2nd round = could become NFL starter
    rest of 2nd round = back up or eventual starter
     
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  14. Longsuffering88

    Longsuffering88 Well-Known Member

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    Conceptually I agree QB's are over drafted

    BUT


    The game dictates the need for a legit QB

    Not saying HOF QB, but legit long term, high quality QB.

    It's sad that the NFL made it this way, but it's reality.

    If you do have a FQB, you can abuse these shit teams each draft by taking amazing talent that dropped.


    We MUST try to get one. Every year until we have one.


    I'm not happy to say it. I hate missing out on Barkley and other studs.

    But it's the dirty little secret - we can't avoid it
     
  15. Red Menace

    Red Menace Well-Known Member

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    Beasley had one great year, and he is used strictly as a pass rusher, I'm glad he is being used correctly by Atlanta, which has reaped benefits for them.

    That being said, Leo is being used in a 3-4 system that does not emphasize pass rushing by linemen as the first priority, if Leo ended up with a team that used a 4-3 defense with 4 good linemen he would probably have better numbers than what we see now and would be considered an excellent pick.

    Williams was a great pick at number 6, it's how he is being used that is determining how he is viewed by fans as a pick that maybe wasn't that great.
     
  16. slimjasi

    slimjasi Well-Known Member

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    BINGO.

    This is what so many of these draft gurus still miss. They obsess over their draft boards and are always talking about the "best" player available, but what matters is who is the most valuable player available.

    For example, let's say we think Barkley is the best player in this draft and will probably be a future hall of famer. Guess what? Merely drafting an above average QB who you can build a winning team around is considerably more valuable than drafting a HOF running back in today's NFL.

    Sure, some teams will overdraft QBs this year as they always do, but those teams are doing so because they know that, until they find a legit QB, nothing else really matters.
     
    #36 slimjasi, Mar 30, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2018
  17. JethroTull

    JethroTull 2018 Least Knowledgeable Poster

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    I disagree with the premise about not overdrafting QB’s. In the days where Top 5 QB’s got paid like elite franchise stars I agree, but not in today’s NFL.

    Keep taking shots at QB’s until you find one, because until you find one you aren’t going anywhere.

    Bucky probably loved the Jets selections of Jamal Adams and Leonard Williams, but in reality how many games has Leonard Williams and Jamal Adams won for the Jets?
     
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  18. SolidGoldBowles

    SolidGoldBowles Well-Known Member

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    how many games did sanchez win for us?
     
  19. Franchize

    Franchize Well-Known Member

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    Everyone keeps saying we need a QB. Not true. We need a franchise QB. Just like we don't need a WR, we need a #1 WR (Im not sold on Robby being that yet). It may seem obvious to others, but I'm not sure whether Macc truly sees our franchise QB in this draft or is just getting one because he feels we need one to save his job. May seem like an obvious answer to many of you but I have my suspicions at times. I've always said I hate to have a high pick and a GM who's supposedly on the hot seat. In any sport. They typically either go for broke or go too conservative ("safe pick"). Never just get the BPA. I don't see us winning next year regardless. I can wait. I don't wanna get a guy just to get a guy (if that makes any sense). It's like a marriage. You shouldn't get married because you want to settle down. You should get married because you found someone to settle down with. That is my biggest fear with all of this. I'm finding it hard to find 3 guys I feel that strongly about in this draft worth trading up for. But I'm no expert.
     
  20. JethroTull

    JethroTull 2018 Least Knowledgeable Poster

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    He won them more games than Leonard Williams that’s for sure.

    Let me know when Leonard Williams takes over a game, because it will be his first.
     

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