This thread is not meant to call anyone out; every single person here, and anywhere, has biases. In fact, it is innate human nature to have biases, as it is a part of experience and learning. I think it is helpful to understand our own cognitive biases; to be able to identify them, in ourselves, and in others you are engaged in conversation with, in order to better comprehend the message being delivered. Here is a handy chart I came across that I felt was worth sharing here, as draft season wraps up. This could be educational both here and in your day to day life. Enjoy:
Nice post! Its good to see that all broken down. Many people use these types of fallacies in their daily lives but don't even realize it.
Can't speak for everyone, but I would say I have the endowment effect. I watched enough tape to formulate my opinion lol, and I tend to not consider others as much.
How about the Chad Pennington bias? Just when things are looking good, you have to say "fuck it, there's no way this can last."
I'm always very courteous and kind to old men, 70+, even when they're not wearing a hat that says Navy Veteran, Air Force veteran, Korean War, Vietnam War, etc. - because I automatically assume they've served the country in some capacity and may have seen some terrible awfulness. Old women? Get out of my way (to myself)! What a belligerent demanding cranky ass complaining bitch because chances are, the most dangerous thing you ever did was make pancakes! That is if they're a belligerent demanding cranky ass complaining bitch. Military Bias. Don't get me wrong, women in the Military past and present in any shape or form are badass so please don't misread. I just have have this internal thing about old women that I know I should temper and think twice about. That 88 year old lady who's kvetching how the line isn't moving fast enough and then slows up the line about why she's not getting 5 cents off, I need to see the Manager! Holy Hell. I tell myself she could've been a spy for our side or worked in an iron smelting factory during War time. And hopefully she was a loving Mom. In general, I'm extremely kind and attentive to the elderly to a fault. Somebody has to be. EDIT & P.S.: I never get offended when a man holds the door for me. It's common decency in the first place. I guess he should let it slam in your face. I also never get annoyed or offended when an old man calls me honey or says ladies first. He's 80 years old, not 30, he isn't being derogatory, and there's nothing sexist about it (9 timesout of 10). He's just being chivalrous, a lost art. Sweet Jesus, pick your battles, women of America. Yes, I'm a girl, and a Feminist; but lately I use that term loosely because it's become too defining for women who think outside the box.I am so fair, I love men, and I'm sure a lot of the "Feminists" of today would hate my guts. I know true sexism when I see it, and it's real. Holding the door for me doesn't make you a misogynist. And screw you, Hillary! I didn't vote for you just because you have lady parts like mine! Blasphemy, I know.
I see a lot of endowment effect, confirmation bias, illusion of validity, reactive devaluation and post purchase rationalization bias on these forums.
since we are all programmed to have one or many of those (just for the simple fact many can be applied to anyone) i'd say the most likely one's for me are gamblers (looking at history to predict the future) with a little bit of endownment effect since i trust my own eye over anything else.
I think gamblers is probably the most popular here. how many times do we see "SOJ" or we'll find a way to fuck it up. I'm guilty of it myself on occasion.
My biggest bias is thinking I know what I'm talking about. Seriously, my biggest bias is convincing myself present trends will continue into the future. Sometimes I'm right (Geno, Petty, Hack) and sometimes I'm wrong (Fitz, Mo). Funnily enough I would have been right in all five cases by going with the "They all suck" strategy. Hopefully that all changes on Thursday!
That's actually the opposite of the Gambler's Fallacy, and far more reasonable. The Gambler's Fallacy would be to say "The Jets have messed it up so many times they're due to get it right this time." If something keeps happening over and over, thinking that that means it's likely to keep happening is not only not a fallacy, it's common sense (at least in this context if it's the same people doing it). I'm a statistics professor, so I have talked and thought about this many, many times. As I tell my students when talking about the idiots who claim that certain numbers on the lottery are "due" because they haven't come up in a while, if you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads every time, there are only two sensible feelings about the future: either it's a fair coin and heads or tails are still 50/50 on the next flip, or much more likely, it's a two-headed coin. The one thing that can't possibly be right is that it's now more likely that the next flip will be tails.
"I do not like that man. I must get to know him better." - Abraham Lincoln That is most certainly true, but first impressions are often correct. To men with daughters everywhere, teach them it is best to offend sex offenders by saying get away from me.
You are wise, one. What is your advice for redirecting our government issue chemtrail therapy to our unknowing enemies?
glad u are a stats professor, now that I know you are smart I'm gonna ask u questions sometimes. I was watching a TV show on the lottery. The guy said "if you want to pick your own numbers, choose numbers higher than 30. Your chances of winning are better because most people choose birthdates." but isnt that some statistical BS? wouldn't the slim chances of your numbers coming up be the same whether they are frequently chosen or not, right?
The statement that "your chances of winning are better" is completely false, since all combinations of numbers are equally likely. What is true, however, is that in games like Powerball and Mega Millions, where the grand prize pot is split among all of the winners, your expected payoff is higher if you choose at least one number greater than 31, because on average fewer people will pick that set of numbers (since anyone who only used birthdays can't possibly pick that set of numbers). I don't know if anyone has ever looked at this in the data to see how big an effect it is, but you have nothing to lose by making sure that you pick at least one number greater than 31. Note that in almost all states this only applies in Powerball to the grand prize, since all of the other prizes are fixed cash amounts that you get no matter how many other people also get it. The only exception, I believe, is in California, where all of the prizes are parimutuel (you share a pool with all of the other winners), so in that state you get the advantage for all prizes if you have numbers over 31.
I should've phrased that better. It's just this subconscious thing, it's instilled in young girls to be polite, even at their own peril. I'd rather be assertive and rude to someone to get out of my space if I'm wrong than be assaulted if I'm right. I'm never going to see that person again, anyway. Fukk you about why I'm not smiling, it's not your goddamn business. Go with your gut, girls. I broke down on the NYS Thruway in the middle of August in the late 80's, 22 years old. It was broad daylight. A belt went, but luckily I was in the right lane so I was able to pull over onto the grass. I scaled an 8 ft. chain link fence and knocked on three doors before Door #3 let me use their phone. Door #3, this 30ish year old guy let me in AFTER checking around from all the windows to make sure no-one was with me (his wife was holding an infant, and she was absolutely fuming at him when he opened the door). I explained what happened and that I needed to call my father (my forearms were pretty scraped up when I landed in some brambles, showed him for proof, and you could see my car through the brambles on the grass). Luckily I was able to get a hold of my Daddy, but freaking AAA wouldn't tow me from a state highway (Rrrrrrrrrrrrr!). I thanked him very much, his wife glared at me, and I re-scaled the fence and sat in the car to wait. I had the door open, but the window was half-rolled down (my first car, a highly used Volkswagen Rabbit - I loved that car). Anyway, nothing to drink, and it was sweltering. This pick up truck pulls over and I instinctively slam the door, lock it, and roll up the window, because the two men that are approaching my car aren't looking too choice. You can't believe how hot it was, but I cracked open the window a half inch so they could talk to me. "Looks like you got some trouble little lady, can we help you?" "Thanks very much, but I have a tow coming." "Well, maybe we can get her started and save you the money and the trouble. Why don't you step outside and we'll take a look. Go sit in the truck, cool off, have a beer, the A.C.'s running. Why do you have all the windows rolled up? Come on out, have a beer." "I know what's wrong with the car. The tow has been dispatched. It can't be fixed here, but thanks again. I used someone's phone and the police know about the breakdown (that last part was a lie)." "We'll wait here with you. C'mon out, cool off." "I'm fine." Well, if I didn't get called an ungrateful bitch and every other name in the book. Suspicion confirmed. Go rape someone else. Was I wrong? Maybe. Did I get murdered and thrown in a ditch somewhere? No. Rape Bias. Another tip. Whenever you're in a/the city, always walk in the middle of the side-walk. You can run into the street if someone tries to grab you from a building, and run towards a storefront if someone tries to grab you from the street. Happy Father's Day in April! And what do I know from chemtrails! What I look like, a pilot for Pan Am or a rocket scientist! I'm a Jets fan, you idiot! Signed, -Related to Mrs. championjets69
