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Discussion in 'Draft' started by JethroTull, Mar 17, 2018.
Wow, you certainly do your homework.
I can use stats to make my argument as good as anyone. The problem with the analytic argument is analytics are based on guys reviewing tape and assigning a grade. They can be wrong. What we are really trying to do is look at a young man and project what he will be as a man against other elite men.
To me when I look at a QB if I see a great completion percentage but a crappy adjusted yards per attempt that's a red flag. It means he's dumping the ball off. If he's not combing a great completion percentage with a great yards per attempt it means nothing. Mayfield actually passes that test. Great YPA and a great completion percentage. That means his making good deep throws and hitting guys in stride for YAC. What it doesn't tell me is the level of competition and will he be able to do it at the next level. Josh Allen on the other hand has both a crappy YPA and completion percentage. Again we don't know if he is playing with a bad deck or how he will mature but it's a huge red flag.
Take Sam Bradford. In 2016 he had a 71 plus completion percentages, best in the league but was 19h in yards per attempt. Think about that. It's virtually impossible. If you're running a WCO and hitting a guy in stride on time you get YAC. If you're throwing down the field in a balanced attack you're getting YPA because even though your completion percentage goes down your moving the ball down the field just as much or more on a lower completion percentage.
Since we're talking Jets football lets look at Joe Namath in 1967 and 1968 when we won the SB he threw for about a 50% completion percentage over the 2 years. His Yards per attempt was 8.2 and 8.3 respectively
Drew Brees the last 2 years threw for over 70% both years. His yards per attempt was 7.7 and 8.1 respectively.
What does that mean? It means that Namath moved the Jets down the field further than Brees moved the Saints down the field on every pass attempt even though Brees was completing 20% more of his passes. Think about that. Outside in Shea stadium with the hash marks split wide and the rules totally in favor of the D.
Trading up for a QB, especially in this year's draft when the top 4 QBs are graded much higher than the rest and will likely all go in the top 5, increases the likelihood of getting an elite QB. So first you have to figure out the odds the top 4 will be elite and the odds the lesser QB prospects will be elite. Then you have to find the difference in expected value from getting a top prospect vs a lesser one. The you have to see whether that difference is greater than the expected value of the non-QBs we would have taken with the picks we traded. If we traded up for any other position, the difference in expected value would be much less than the expected value of the picks we traded. Which is why you don't usually want to trade up. But the difference between an elite QB (huge value) and a bust QB (no value) is greater than the difference between an elite non-QB (big but not huge value) and bust non-QB (no value). So in this case, the trade up may be worth it.
I don't buy it and if you believe it we should have canned the GM last year for not drafting a QB when two of them fell to us.
Here is the most detailed article I've read to date on Mayfield's experience in college:
It was written in August 2016, so this is not an article written for the draft. It is quite insightful and while it doesn't capture the last two seasons, it still provides a lot of insight into his story, for those interested.
You have convinced me that you can manipulate stats, but that can't be your best effort. You compared two players in vastly different offensive schemes then you took Namath from an era where defenses focused mostly on the run.
I get your argument against analytics, but they still aren't favorable for Allen. His games have been a static test that don't compare against the other elite prospects... he is the outlier that you have to make dozens of concessions to compensate for the fact that he wasn't considered an even average QB prospect until 2016, grew into his body and may someday be the big man on an NFL campus that he wasn't qualified to be earlier in his life.
I understand the promise, but unless you can convince me with anything other than "he's the incredible hulk when he's angry" argument, I don't get your love.
I agree Allen has red flags. I hate drafting him in the first round. I have to say that I’m not a huge fan of Mayfield. That’s not based on analytics. He’s seems very small to me and he looks pumped up not natural. I have a bad feeling about him at the next level. I look at Darnold and Rosen they just look like more natural athletes. I think there’s more to build on.
Again I wouldn’t draft either Allen or Mayfield at 3. I kind of hate not taking a QB last year when the cost was lower. I think Rosen or Mayfeild might have dropped to 6 and If not we might have been able to trade back for Rudolph or LJ who might be just as good as the top 3? I think we gave up a lot. If we get a good QB and develop him it will work out.
I know he hasn't done much yet and people here are skeptical, but we could've gotten Mahomes last year without having to trade up. Then, if we still went 5-11 and picked 6th, could have a shot at Barkley and two 2nd round picks to use on OL and WR/TE/OLB/DE.
Pretty sure we're close to the same page, except that I see some of Rosen's red flags redder than you do.
I think Darnold is the gold ring. If the Jets somehow land him, I will feel much better.
Rosen is scary to me. Mayfield is a lightning rod that could just flame out. Allen is the physical prospect that could make the Ravens angry because he'd be the guy they thought Flacco was.
There is no sure thing in any draft but the QBs in this one are not what we've been hyped for years about. That's why I'm kind of preparing myself for the outside possibility of a next level player at another position.
I don't think it will happen, but the realist in me almost hopes it does.
I get why you feel this way, but if this was the case the Jets shouldn't have traded up. If they had stayed at 6 and drafted Quentin Nelson, this would've been a far better pick than Barkley or Chubb considering what the team gave up.
The Jets are, for better or worse, playing Russian Roulette right now. They need to hit with a QB at this pick, or we're in for a full scale reboot.
Yes, I get it. I know why they traded up.
I just know that they're the Jets.
Drew Brees scouting report from college, only posting due to the occasional comparison:
#15 QB Drew Brees, Purdue, 6-0/213/4.83
Class/Draft Year: Sr/2001
Projected Round: 1-2
Rated number 2 out of 28 QB's
The unquestioned leader of the Boilermakers’ offense and one of the school’s most decorated athletes...The three-year starter shattered virtually every school passing record and also made his marks on the Big Ten Conference and NCAA Division 1-A record charts...Ranks fourth in NCAA annals with 1525 pass attempts, 942 pass completions and 11,815 yards in total offense (NCAA does not recognize bowl stats)...Including post-season action, he holds the Boilermaker and conference career-records with 1026 completions of 1678 passes for 11,792 yards, 90 touchdown tosses and 12,692 yards in total offense...His pass completion percentage of .611 set another Purdue all-time record...Only player in Big Ten Conference history to throw for over 500 yards in a game twice in a career...Threw for over 400 yards seven times, over 300 yards sixteen times and over 200 yards twenty-seven times during his career...Tied Wisconsin tailback Ron Dayne’s (1996-99) Big Ten Conference record by earning Player of the Week honors eight times during his career.
Positives... Touch passer with the ability to read and diagnose defensive coverages...Confident leader who knows how to take command in the huddle...Very tough and mobile moving around in the pocket...Has a quick setup and is very effective throwing on the move... Throws across his body with great consistency...Hits receivers in stride and improvises his throws in order to make a completion...Puts good zip behind the short and mid-range passes...Shows good judgement and keen field vision...Has a take-charge attitude and is very cool under pressure...Hits receivers in motion with impressive velocity...Has superb pocket presence and uses all of his offensive weapons in order to move the chains...Has solid body mechanics and quickness moving away from center...Elusive scrambler with the body control to avoid the rush.
Negatives...Plays in the spread offense, taking the bulk of his snaps from the shotgun...Tends to side-arm his passes going deep...Lacks accuracy and touch on his long throws...Seems more comfortable in the short/intermediate passing attack...Does not possess the ideal height you look for in a pro passer, though his ability to scan the field helps him compensate in this area...Will improvise and run when the passing lanes are clogged, but tends to run through defenders rather than trying to avoid them to prevent unnecessary punishment.
Height: 6' 0"
40 Yard Dash: 4.83
20 Yard Dash: 2.75
10 Yard Dash: 1.66
20 Yard Shuttle: 4.21
3-Cone Drill: 7.09
Vertical Jump: 32"
Broad Jump: 8'9"
Campus Agility Tests
40-yard dash: 4.67
Bench press: 275 lbs.
Squat: 475 lbs.
Power Clean: 275 lbs.
Arm length: 31 ¼”
Any given Sunday. Or Thursday.
Fuck it. Any given bottle of scotch. One day, it will be the one.
Maybe you have me on ignore, in which case you won't see this response either, but I pointed out that Allen creates these tight windows because of he tends to lock onto his receivers and the defenders can close on the receiver before the ball is even thrown. He "gets away with it" because he can often gun the ball there before the defender gets there. but it doesn't give his receivers much chance to do anything after the catch.
Okay, don't buy it. But if we'd taken Watson or Mahomes we wouldn't have had to make this trade.
I disagree!!!! But it's all good
I have a question: How do you know Allen had "tighter windows" to throw into? What is your gauge for that? If you contend that there is no way that someone could develop a basic guideline for defining what a "tight window" is - as PFF did for example - then are you relying on each person's individual judgement based on watching film? And if the answer to that is "Yes", then your opinion that Allen had more tighter windows to throw into is just: and opinion.
Further, if we toss out all metrics and simply rely on an individual's judgment using their own unique criteria, then how could anyone compare QBs (or any other player position)? In other words, there has to be a common language that's agreed upon by everyone so comparisons can be made with some measure of consistency. That's what metrics are - the common language used to evaluate players in conjunction with review of game footage.
Very good article, but non the less, as he well points out in his article Baker should go no lower than three if the first two top dogs are gone. If Rosen is there, that should be the pick. If not then is Baker.
I, for one, was all for canning Macc for that very reason (as well as his mediocre success to-date).
Jamal Adams is awesome though. If the #3 pick turns out to be a solid to elite franchise QB, then the decision to pass last year will be fine.