For the record, I’m not certain about the outcome in October. Not at all. You can never be certain about predicting the future. What I can be certain about is what has already happened to date and whether there are logical connections or correlations between the inputs and the observed outputs. In other words, is there reason to believe one of the inputs (fastball rate) is increasing the chance of a negative output (outcome of a game)? To date, I have not seen evidence of that. In fact, we’ve seen the opposite. Predictive modeling is a big part of what I do every day. A rigorous methodology and a large sample can provide powerful insights even in complicated data sets.