How Important Is a 'W' on Sunday? Published: Fri, December 28, 3:43pm EST Randy Lange By Randy Lange Lange is editor-in-chief of newyorkjets.com. He covered the Jets for 13 years for The Record of Hackensack, N.J. File Under: Eric Mangini, Shaun Ellis, Joe Kowalewski, 3-13 4-12 Chiefs change font email article 12/28 ? I have always been of the opinion that, as Coach Herm once famously said, "You Play. To Win. The Game." And that means all games: preseason games, games after your playoff seed has been determined, games when you're playing out the string. Especially when you're playing out the string. Really, whenever I hear how the Jets should lose their last "X" number of games to get the highest draft choice possible, I wonder what competitive world this concept comes from. By that logic, why not just go 0-16 and wrap up the No. 1 draft choice? Or if that's too extreme, after a 1-7 first half the Jets could have mailed in their final eight and right now could be vying with the Dolphins for April's top pick. It's never a good idea to lose a game at the end of a 3-12 or 4-11 season. People who think it is suffer from Draft Envy, thinking that if their team is going to lose games, it might as well lose dignity, too, and at least get the highest first-round selection possible as a consolation prize. But the draft has never been and probably never will be a science; it's an art. Whatever pick the Jets end up with, they end up with, and then GM Mike Tannenbaum and his draft team get to work trying to maximize the value of all their picks, by either spending each pick on the best player available or trading a pick for more picks. Here's another reason to try to win the last game of a season such as the one the Jets will soon put to bed: It's good for next year's business. At least a small statistical sampling implies this. I researched all teams that finished 3-13 or 4-12 ? one of the two records these Jets will finish with ? since the 12-playoff-team era that began in 1990 to see if a win in Game 16 was a better predictor of success the next season than a loss. Apparently, it is. The 41 teams in that category that lost their last game produced a combined record of 275-394-1 the next season. That's a .411 winning percentage that is just a hair better than a 6-9-1 season. Further, only six of those 41 teams qualified for the next postseason, a 14.6 percent success rate. Then there were 24 such teams that won their 16th games. Their combined record the next season was 189-195, a .492 winning percentage that's just a tick below 8-8. And 10 of those 24 made the playoffs, a 41.7 percent rate. Hmmm ... But here's the question from Football Philosophy 101: Is it good added incentive to win that last game because it will help you enter the off-season and the next season in a better frame of mind than if you had lost it? You might be able to guess head coach Eric Mangini's approach. "I don't think there's a significant amount of carryover from ending one way or another way," Mangini said in the last few days. "We are always looking at it from the perspective of this week, as opposed to winning to try to carry over into the following season." I talked with a few players in the locker room after today's final practice of the season who had their own views of the question. A win over the Chiefs, first-year TE Joe Kowalewski said. "is real important. To feel good about the off-season, it'd be great to finish off the year with a win, personally and for the team. "We had so many heartbreakers this year," he said. "Honestly, we were just so close to making a run at this thing, but the ball didn't bounce our way. We worked so hard. We just need a positive way going into the next year to get this thing rolling." Veteran DE Shaun Ellis, on the other hand, didn't think a win or a loss did anything for the new season ahead. "Nah, because next year will be different regardless. It'll be good to win just to know you won your last game, but the reality is that we'll just be 4-12," Ellis said with a small laugh. "Of course we want to win ? that's first and foremost. It's going to be the same this week. We're going to go out and play and whatever happens, happens. "The main thing I learned is that last year and this year were two different total years. Every year is not going to be the same as the year before. You've got to go in with the same steady approach every year, day in and day out. "Things didn't go our way," Ellis continued, "but the way we work, as long as we just continue that. We've been working good for two years. As long as we continue that work ethic and pursuing on, things will have to turn around for us. We're a good group, we work hard. We've just got to do the things that put us in position to win and just keep playing. Pretty soon it's going to have to open up for us." The Big Katt makes a great point: There is no inevitability to next year because of how this season went. If there were, the following teams that finished one season similar to how the Jets finished this season would never have done as well in their following seasons as they did (*won Super Bowl XXXIV): Year Team Record Next RS Next PO 1991 San Diego 4-12 11-5 1-1 1998 Indianapolis 3-13 13-3 0-1 1998 St. Louis 4-12 13-3 3-0* 1999 New Orleans 3-13 10-6 1-1 2003 San Diego 4-12 12-4 0-1 2005 New Orleans 3-13 10-6 1-1 2005 JETS 4-12 10-6 0-1 Let's put it this way. A win over Kansas City would be nice for its own sake. It might even be a small omen for the next season. But come the heat of July and the speed of September, all omens evaporate and hard work invested or avoided will take over. Whatever happens, happens, as Ellis said, and next season as always begins the day after this season ends.
