You get what you pay for -- or do you?

Discussion in 'Draft' started by WilsonJetsFan, Apr 14, 2022.

  1. WilsonJetsFan

    WilsonJetsFan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2021
    Messages:
    322
    Likes Received:
    856
    From time to time, we all make the mistake of assuming that, if something costs more, it must be better. And if it costs a lot more, it must be a lot better.

    In the draft, there are certainly times when that is true. In some drafts, the four or five guys at the top of the draft are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the class. And in those drafts, if you are fortunate enough to have a #4 pick, then that pick can get you someone who isn’t just a difference-make, but who is going to make a much bigger difference than the guy you can get with the #14 pick. If hypothetically, that’s an Edge rusher, then there are years in which the Edge rusher you can get at #4 will get you an extra four sacks and ten hurries per year compared to the Edge rusher you can get at #14. That’s a lot of value for that higher price tag.

    In other years, though, that’s not the case. Sometimes, the guy you can get with #4 is better than the guy you can get at #14, but not THAT much better. If, hypothetically, it’s an Edge rusher, maybe the #4 guy will have a career in which he get an average of one extra sack per season and three extra hurries per year compared to the #14 guy. That certainly has value, and it’s not negligible. On the other hand, if you could trade the #4 pick for a #14 and a #25, then you have to ask whether that extra sack and three hurries is worth more than whatever value you would get by trading down and getting whatever value that guy at #25 brings to the table.

    I’ve been spending way too much time watching film on the Edges and WRs available in this draft. Now, I’m not an expert, and it’s certainly possible that people smarter than me are seeing things I don’t see. But what I see in this draft is that the difference between the #1/2 guy and the #5/6 guy is not nearly as big as the media hype machines make out. That’s consistent with the fact that the media hype machines seem to change their opinions each week about which Edges and receivers belong where in the draft. London and Burks were, at various points, both in many experts’ top ten, but nowadays they both seem to be drifting in the 20s. KT was once everyone’s #1 overall choice, and now many are saying that he may fall to #10 or even lower. Christian Watson has skyrocketed from the 70s into the 30s. During this time, the athletes themselves did not change. They are still the same people with the same abilities. Their film and their measurables have been exactly the same over the past month. But the inconsistency in “expert” evaluations suggests what I see when I watch the film – i.e., there are a whole lot of Edges and WRs that can make a pretty strong case that they are one of the top 2 or 3 athletes and their position. They each have their unique strengths and weaknesses, and one athlete may be a better fit for one scheme than another. But I suspect that, five years from now, when we look back at which of the top five Edges and top 5 WRs tore it up and which ones disappointed, that will be more a function of fit and scheme than a function of talent.

    Moving from the ethereal to the concrete: Last night, I took a cue from Chris Simms and watched a bunch of film on Nik Bonitto, and also watched a bunch of film on George Karloftis. Wow, those two guys are animals. Amazing speed, and very good hand technique according to my admittedly non-expert eyes. I would be thrilled to have either one of those as our new Edge. Now, I recognize that Treyvon Walker has some off-the-charts physical gifts that may give him a higher ceiling than Karloftis or Bonitto. And maybe people smarter than me would say that a KT or Aidan Hutchinson has a higher level of mastery at this technique or that move. But let’s suppose, hypothetically, that the difference between a KT and a Nik Bonitto is meaningful, but not enormous. Suppose that over their careers with the Jets, KT would get you an average of 1-1/2 extra sacks and 3 extra QB hurries per year compared to Bonitto. That’s a real difference. But KT may cost you a #4 pick, while Nik may only cost you #69. If you went with Bonitto, that would free you up to use your #4 pick and get Sauce as well. So yes, KT gives you an extra 1-1/2 sacks and three hurries per year, but would you rather have (a) that extra production or, (b) Nik + Sauce?

    You get a similar effect, I think, with receivers. There’s a lot of hype over Wilson and Williams. But Chris Olave is a helluva receiver (I watched a bunch of his film the other day too). And you don’t need to spend a top 10 pick on Olave. You don't even need to spend a first round pick to get Alec Pierce. And when you watch Olave's film and Pierce's film, I'm just not sure there's that big of a difference between those guys and Wilson/Williams/Burke/London. Or maybe not even any difference, other than the fact that they all have their own unique combination of strengths and weaknesses.

    TLDR version: We have a couple of positions of need, and the knee-jerk reaction is “of course we should use our #4 and #10 picks on those positions.” It’s human nature to forget that paying a high price for those positions does not mean you are getting the most bang for your buck. I won’t complain if we nab a KT or Walker at #4 and Wilson at #10. But I suspect JD would make a much bigger overall improvement if he trades down from both of those picks or uses them on someone like Sauce that really is head-and-shoulders above the caliber of athlete you’ll get with trade-down picks.

    And now, I’ll go back to my irrational natural human tendencies and do a mock draft in which I’ll probably pick KT at 4 and Wilson at 10, and then tell myself how awesome my draft was.
     
    Jojo and Br4d like this.
  2. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2011
    Messages:
    4,998
    Likes Received:
    8,650
    Regarding Bonitto - he has a great pressure rate but I don't know if he's big enough to play edge in the 4-3. I don't have any thoughts on Karlaftis as I have not watched him.

    Regarding the rest - you definitely raise some good questions and I'm generally in favor of trading down. I would say that I think it's extremely unlikely to find good edge rushers anywhere outside of the most premium picks. I don't have the numbers on that but I'm pretty sure I've read that.

    This is interesting, it breaks down how successful players generally end up being who are taken from 1-10, 11-20, 21-30, etc.:

    https://www.catscratchreader.com/20...s-us-finding-pro-bowlers-regular-contributors

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    There's also this:

    [​IMG]

    These both imply that top 10/20 picks definitely tend to be far more valuable than others, but by the 2nd or 3rd rounds you just want as many picks as possible because there isn't a huge difference in their chances of working out.
     
    Noam, Br4d and MaximusD163 like this.
  3. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

    Joined:
    May 11, 2011
    Messages:
    14,430
    Likes Received:
    17,259
    What a chart. Wow
     
  4. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2011
    Messages:
    5,359
    Likes Received:
    5,077
    These charts are really interesting but I’d love to see some that are more position specific. I looked at the top 10 paid players at each position and then mapped out where they were drafted and I feel like it gave a lot of insight, albeit a snapshot in time. I want to compare it to the current top 10 since I did it before free agency, but I also want to give enough time for the summer extensions to get done to include them in the data.
     
    REVISion likes this.
  5. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,283
    Likes Received:
    3,437
    1. Welcome to the club

    2. Even your tldr was tl lol

    3. If you want to mix up your mocks try one without a DE in the 1st. Try no WR in the 1st 2. Use the PFF and trade #10 and #111 for Debo and their 3rd
     
    WilsonJetsFan likes this.
  6. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,283
    Likes Received:
    3,437
    He wouldn’t be a 3 down lineman in our system but idk if our system wants a lineman to play 3 downs.

    This Edge draft class reminds me of the 2018 QB class with all the top talent
    5 in the 1st but the 40% bust rate holds true (1 undecided)
    -One top prospect has personality issues

    6 in the 1st with a 33% bust rate means 2 of: KT, Hutch, JJ, Walker, Karlaftis, Mafe/Bonitto are going to bust.

    Is Walker going to be an Allen or a Darnold?
     
  7. WilsonJetsFan

    WilsonJetsFan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2021
    Messages:
    322
    Likes Received:
    856
    Yeah, one the mock draft thing, I've done a bunch in which I force myself to trade out of the first completely, and a bunch in which I keep the 1st round picks but use them on positions other than Edge and WR. In every case, I feel dissatisfied because you get excited about the top Edges/WRs, but in every case, I also feel like my overall draft would have done more to improve the team than doing what I really wanted to do.
     
  8. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,283
    Likes Received:
    3,437
    Same here. If the CS thinks a Bonitto, Egbare, or Mafe can find success here, it really opens up a lot of doors. Take it one step further and assume we like our starting WRs and are drafting for depth, you can get a lot of quality starters.

    my perfect 1st 2 days rn is:
    Sauce- Lloyd- Bonitto- Walker- Strange
     
    Jojo and WilsonJetsFan like this.
  9. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,283
    Likes Received:
    3,437
    Here’s Bonitto’s measurables vs Parsons

    https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/nik-bonitto?position=DL

    https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/micah-parsons

    Parsons has 1/10th of a second on the 3 cone but the rest is scary similar. Parsons spent some time on the line this year and was a beast. I would love Bonitto on our rotation.
     
  10. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2004
    Messages:
    36,670
    Likes Received:
    14,472
    The top 10 paid argument fails to take into account expectations.

    Teams pay their 1st round picks and 4th round picks differently given the same performance levels.

    If you're a 1st round pick and you work out you are going to get paid a fortune because your team does not want to lose its investment of a 1st round pick.

    The same performance in the 4th round creates a more nuanced response from the team. They will not overpay to keep that guy because he was only a 4th round pick.

    It's human nature to overvalue the things you spend a lot on and undervalue the things that came cheap if you're going to have to pay a lot to keep them.

    Players also have expectation levels and a 1st rounder expects to break the bank if he is a success - almost independent of how successful he actually is. This is because a player factors compensation into their definition of what success looks like.

    The Jets had a franchise RG for years in Brandon Moore and they paid him like just another cog in the machine because he was a UDFA and his expectations on compensation were low.

    It's insane to think how many top-tier rushing attacks Moore anchored without ever getting paid like he was anything more than a replaceable piece. As soon as the Jets lost him to retirement the rushing success evaporated.
     
    ColoradoContrails likes this.
  11. NYJetsO12

    NYJetsO12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2013
    Messages:
    11,351
    Likes Received:
    7,402
    Here an insideTip: the Sixth Riund is golden

    After all isn't that where the Pats found Brady?? Ahahahah

    But seriously ...you do get what you pay for on average
     
  12. deviljets7

    deviljets7 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2003
    Messages:
    3,535
    Likes Received:
    315

    Some very interesting stuff here.

    I am a little dubious about the 1-10 vs. 11-20 data because I feel like QBs (and how they move up the board) probably skews the data a bit. I would love to know if there's a notable difference between non-QBs 1-10 as compared to 11-20
     
    REVISion likes this.
  13. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2011
    Messages:
    4,998
    Likes Received:
    8,650
    Yeah I looked up some data for different positions and it does tend to vary widely position-to-position. OL and TE for example tend to hold value into later rounds very well. WRs tend to hold value in the 1st and 2nd rounds but fall off a cliff after that.

    Here's where I got that from:

    https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015...e-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

    That breakdown is 7 years old so I do wonder how true it holds today.
     
    ColoradoContrails and KingRoach like this.
  14. IIMeanDeanII

    IIMeanDeanII Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2006
    Messages:
    6,499
    Likes Received:
    6,940
    It boils down to film study. A lot of these guys are initial, knee-jerk reactions. Quick glimpses, small sample size, glossed over stats, etc...

    Once people (experts) start diving Into the film, going through the process, things change. It's all relevant at the end of the day but the film Is important, the problem Is that there is A LOT of players with A LOT of different film.

    Takes time.

    Then It becomes a perspective game. Obviously. Some are right, more than others, nobody Is always right though.

    There are definitely tiers, there are prospects that are just better, now It's up to those "experts" to figure those things out.

    Every draft Is different, yet the same patterns tend to happen because It's not an exact science.

    Like, you will have superstars that emerge In this league In the top 10, you will also find superstars much later In the draft.

    Tier's are still relevant and real though, despite that.
     
    ColoradoContrails and KingRoach like this.
  15. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    14,203
    Likes Received:
    10,165
    I really like bonito but he wouldn't be a DE full time for us. he'd be a Sam LBer who blitzes at times and plays in 4-3 and goaline and in 3rd down pass rush situations he could play DE
     
    Rockinz likes this.
  16. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2011
    Messages:
    4,360
    Likes Received:
    2,353
    Bonito is rising up boards. He’s worked his way into the second round I believe
     
  17. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,283
    Likes Received:
    3,437
    My understanding is this D has a heavy rotation thus no DE would be “full time” for us.

    Based on size, IDK if Jacob Martin already fills that role or if they want more than one EDGE with that body type.

    I think Josh Paschal would be a good day 3 pickup.
     
  18. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    14,203
    Likes Received:
    10,165
    yes he has. maybe even high 2nd. I couldn't' understand why he was ranked low. It's funny all the "steals" i talked about in the 3rd to 5th flew up draft boards in the past month so clearly i'm seeing the same as NFL teams fo the most part. dulcich went from a 4th-5th to a 3rd, bonito from a 3rd to a 2nd, watson from a 5th to a 2nd, austin from a 5th to a 3rd,
     
  19. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    14,203
    Likes Received:
    10,165
    basically the main 2 guys play about 2/3rds the snaps while the 2 "backup" play about 1/3rd. it's an 8 man rotation for Dts and Des in that way.
    paschal would be interesting. zach harrison has slipped from a 1st to probably UDFA due to a poor season. would be worth a look as an UDFA like huff was
     
  20. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2011
    Messages:
    4,360
    Likes Received:
    2,353
    Fast risers and coaches watching film on prospects that weren’t watching collage due to prep for their own teams.
     
    KingRoach likes this.

Share This Page