With the 10th pick..

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by KY Jets Fan, Jan 7, 2024.

?

Who do you pick if all these are still available at Pick#10

  1. Rome Odunze (WR)

    29.6%
  2. Brock Bowers (TE)

    14.8%
  3. Fashanu or another OL

    46.3%
  4. I rather trade down if these are my choices

    9.3%
  1. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    35,446
    Likes Received:
    28,862
    Spot on, but the guys who are in love with Bowers can't see reason for the stars in their eyes. We just have to pray that JD gets it right.
     
    tomdeb and mezzavo like this.
  2. All Gas No Shake

    All Gas No Shake Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2009
    Messages:
    2,333
    Likes Received:
    999
    You calling someone else condescending is hilarious.

    I guess you don’t know that three wide receivers start on most teams, and right now the jets have two and a possible.

    The jets could just as easily draft an OT in the second or third round, and OTs have a high bust rate too.
     
    chandler likes this.
  3. The Dark Knight

    The Dark Knight Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2004
    Messages:
    27,061
    Likes Received:
    14,282
    At least 4 QB’s are going Top 10, right? So the 10th overall pick is really like the 6th overall pick for the Jets. I just get the feeling JD is going to try to trade down and get back that 2nd round pick he lost on Rodgers. We will see.
     
  4. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2011
    Messages:
    5,050
    Likes Received:
    8,720
    Because both the WR and TE are likely to start every game. The backup OT is not.
     
  5. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2011
    Messages:
    5,050
    Likes Received:
    8,720
    Yeah and OL in rounds 2+ work out at higher rates than any other non-kicking position. The value in drafting OL is in the mid rounds.
     
  6. jets_fan

    jets_fan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2016
    Messages:
    3,818
    Likes Received:
    5,508
    Given the injury history of our current LT, combined with the MetLife turf, and just our overall good luck, any O-lineman we draft will most likely see a significant amount of playing time.
     
  7. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2004
    Messages:
    32,361
    Likes Received:
    30,723
    I’m with it but the Jets and this GM in particular is awful at evaluating offensive line talent be it mid-market free agents or lower round draft picks. Sometimes you have to overcorrect to fix a mistake and get a 10 year starter at tackle in the first round.
     
  8. chandler

    chandler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2013
    Messages:
    1,060
    Likes Received:
    1,347
    Is this true for tackles? Makes sense to me for guards and centers, but based on no evidence whatsoever i had the feeling that teams so overvalued tackles in the first that the later rounds had no good tackles left.
     
  9. Borat

    Borat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2018
    Messages:
    4,737
    Likes Received:
    8,025
    In this case though, a WR should be a massive preference: We have Lazard/Gipson starting the way the team is now and Mike will need to ramp up, will not be ready for training camp. I am not so sure Bowers in year 1 is starting over Conk at all, and even if he is I doubt there will be a massive upgrade. So, given your own argument, a WR and not TE should be an option.

    As far as OT, the argument is slightly different. It's true that OT draftee might not start the year, but there is overwhelming likelihood he will have to play significant amount. And given what happened last year, not protecting Rodgers might get him hurt effectively ending the entire season for everyone. So, the argument is that while an OT pick likely will play less than a WR, the importance of these reps protecting Rodgers is too critical in 2024. Plus he will start after that.

    Where I still cannot see a point is a TE. If you are not sold with OT argument, than WR is far and away better weapon option, and it is not even close. The only possible way I can see this is that people are absolutely certain he is Kelce/Kittle/Gronk generational type can't miss prospect. And I simply am not buying it.
     
  10. Jets79

    Jets79 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2020
    Messages:
    2,681
    Likes Received:
    5,338
    I agree here 100%

    I want no part of a TE at 10…too many of them bust…he’d have to be the second coming of Kelce/Kittle/Gronk and I’m not buying it either…and by the way, none of those guys were top ten picks. And I don’t have anything against the player per se…but for THIS team, at THIS time, I just don’t think it makes a lot of sense. There are only a couple of TE’s who are difference makers, and the chances of Bowers becoming one of them to me are not a slam dunk. I’d rather solidify the OT spot or the WR spot for all those reasons you mentioned.

    We’ll see what JD does, but I hope he sees it the same way
     
  11. Jets OG fan

    Jets OG fan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2022
    Messages:
    494
    Likes Received:
    502
    I was under the impression that this class is top heavy with the tackles, but I could be wrong. Interior oline in round 2 has potential for sure.
     
  12. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    35,446
    Likes Received:
    28,862
    I just ran across some very interesting statistics on the top WRs in this draft class. After seeing Lazard, Hardman, Davis and other Jets WRs drop so many passes over the last 5 years, why in the world would they or you want to draft a "top" WR with such a high drop rate? Unless there were some extenuating circumstances, such as a very wild, inaccurate QB that caused them to have to frequently attempt to make circus-type catches, imo no top WR should have a drop rate above 5%, and even that is high for a WR who will be seeing a lot of targets. IMO this is all the more reason why the Jets 1st round pick has to be an OT, and preferably an LT.

    Marvin Harrison Jr - 6.1% on 248 targets
    Rome Odunze - 6.6% on 328 targets
    Malik Nabers - 7.3% on 275 targets
    Brian Thomas Jr - 9.3% on 176 targets
    Roman Wilson - 6.1% on 157 targets
    Ladd McConkey - 7.8% on 158 targets

    Bowers drop rate was 5.1% which is better that the WRs above, but still seems a little too high, and his contested catch rate was only 22.2% (25th percentile).

    Here's an interesting article on Bowers: https://www.ganggreennation.com/202...ht-end-brock-bowers-georgia-new-york-jets-pff
    It's written by a fan, who seems to be pretty knowledgeable, and he did his homework with stats to back up his opinions.

    IMO this is the most important part of the article:

     
  13. Borat

    Borat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2018
    Messages:
    4,737
    Likes Received:
    8,025
    There was something else that Pats and Cheifs had that had something to do with these SBs: Brady and Mahomes. These guys won with great WRs too, like Brady with the Bucks for example, where Gronk was also there, but played a much smaller role. Mahomes won with Hill too. They didn't win because of these TEs. I am not saying if we have a great TE like Gronk or Kelce it won't help. But I am not sure Bowers it, and there is a much higher hit rate at WR, with 23 best pass catchers in NFL being WRs, not a single TE until #24. And these QBs had a decent protection too when they won, particularly Brady with TB, which is kinda what we are trying to do now with Rodgers.
     
    Jets79 likes this.
  14. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    35,446
    Likes Received:
    28,862
    No, they aren't. The rookie WR will be the #3. He will definitely not be a starter. Bowers isn't likely to start, either.
     
  15. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2003
    Messages:
    26,071
    Likes Received:
    26,845
    have you ever watched an NFL game? It’s crazy, teams often line up with 3 receivers or 2 tight ends a lot. It’s almost like who starts on the very first snap doesn’t matter for the other ~60
     
    REVISion and All Gas No Shake like this.
  16. chandler

    chandler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2013
    Messages:
    1,060
    Likes Received:
    1,347
    To be clear, I'm not saying Bowers will be a great TE either --- i know my limitations. What I am saying is that we shouldn't so quickly dismiss the idea of drafting TE IF the front office thinks he's the real deal. Smarter people than I have explained how he can be used to really screw up a defense.
     
    Pepsiguy5 likes this.
  17. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    35,446
    Likes Received:
    28,862
    I think that most posters believe that Bowers can screw up a defense if he's in the right system on the right team. That's the key to the matter. Do you really think that Hackett is capable or even willing to re-design his offense to focus on the TE and utilize Bowers the way he should be? He has certainly underutilized Conklin and Ruckert in his offenses, and it's a fact that Rodgers doesn't like throwing to the middle of the field, which is where Bowers does his damage. The only time that Rodgers uses his TEs consistently is in the Red Zone, and with Bowers' poor contested catch rates, it doesn't seem like that he would be particularly effective in the Red Zone. So if the Jets were to take him, I think he would be underutilized, be in the wrong scheme, and would either be only marginally better than Conklin or maybe even come close to busting. Hackett couldn't even be bothered to adjust his offense last season after Rodgers went down, and he didn't scheme WRs open. If Bowers goes to the right team he could become a star and a generational player, but that team isn't the Jets, at least as presently coached and staffed.
     
  18. Trainer

    Trainer Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2015
    Messages:
    1,418
    Likes Received:
    2,545
    No GM is going to select talent based on the incapablity of the OC, that's nuts. Whoever is picked, whether Bowers, WR, or tackle, is likely to outlast this entire coaching staff.
     
  19. mezzavo

    mezzavo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2002
    Messages:
    4,867
    Likes Received:
    1,519
    At this point I'm not sure that the GM has an issue with evaluating o-line talent. Our offensive coaching is so bad it's hard to say which is the main culprit or a combination of both. Considering other o-linemen have gone on to other teams and had, at the very least, decent productivity, one could make the snap judgement that it's mostly on the coaching. Seriously, could JD actually be this BAD at finding o-line talent across the board? I wish I had that answer.
     
  20. mezzavo

    mezzavo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2002
    Messages:
    4,867
    Likes Received:
    1,519
    Hence why, with my comment, I referenced the Jets, as a historical organization, has soundly FAILED at the TE spot. We've had some GREAT blocking TE's but this team has never seen nor groomed anything the likes of Kelce, Kittle, Hooper, Gonzalez et. al.
     

Share This Page