Calculating odds based on spreads I removed the vig/juice to make a fair approximation. The Giants winning is about -415 (80.58%) Detroit winning is about +140 (41.67%) Washington winning is about -174 (63.5%) Green Bay winning is about -160 (61.54%) All in all, the Giants have a 13.12% chance according to my calculations.
Barnwell has it at: Giants beat Eagles 82.1% Redskins beat Cowboys 64.5% Packers beat Vikings 55.2% Lions beat Bears 29.2% Combined Odds 8.5%
Well Barnwell's odds are pretty well off on the Lions/Bears game. Also the GB game. I don't know why he's using 'log5' when there's much better information out there to estimate probabilities of a team winning. 5 Dimes agrees with me. They posted odds of +550/-925 (which is roughly equivalent to my no vig line of +662).
Barnwell is calculating the odds of an outcome. Betting lines don't actually calculate the outcome, they calculate what the odds need to be to have a roughly even amount of money on both sides of the bet.
Betting odds are far more accurate than the log5 method. I think even Barnwell knows that. After all, he went to Vegas, thinking he'd make money. He failed. He lived in Las Vegas for a year and lost $4,000. The betting market is pretty damn efficient. Anyone who has been seriously involved in gambling would tell you as much.
I don't think they will make it but I bet my 25 dollars in favor of them hoping for a miracle. I need vCash so desperately
