https://jetsxfactor.com/2022/01/05/week-18-ny-jets-draft-scenarios/ Here is the complete list of scenarios involving the New York Jets' two first-round picks entering Week 18 of the regular season. How high, how low can New York Jets’ draft picks go in Week 18? As we enter the final week of the 2021 regular season, here is how the top of the 2021 NFL draft is stacked up: Jacksonville (2-14, .522 SOS) Detroit (2-13-1, .539 SOS) Houston (4-12, .496 SOS) NY Jets (4-12, .515 SOS) NY Giants (4-12, .537 SOS) Carolina (5-11, .507 SOS) NY Jets via Seattle (6-10, .518 SOS) NY Giants via Chicago (6-10, .520 SOS) Washington (6-10, .533 SOS) Atlanta (7-9, .461 SOS) Denver (7-9, .478 SOS) Minnesota (7-9, .513 SOS) Cleveland (7-9, .524 SOS) The New York Jets have two first-round picks that could possibly fall in a combined 12 different spots depending on what happens around the NFL this week. Let’s dig into all of the scenarios. Jets’ first-round pick The Jets’ own first-round pick is currently situated at No. 4 overall. They are in a three-team tie for the third slot with the Texans and Giants. This tiebreaker order is settled. Houston is guaranteed to finish with a lower SOS (strength of schedule) than the Jets and the Jets are guaranteed to finish with a lower SOS than the Giants. In the event of a draft-order tie, the higher pick goes to the team with a weaker strength of schedule, which is the combined win percentage of all 17 opponents on a team’s schedule. There are four different spots this selection can fall. What happens if the Jets lose in Buffalo? If Jets lose: Jets jump to #3 if Texans win (vs. Titans) Jets stay at #4 if Texans lose If things play out as expected, the Texans and Jets will both lose as enormous underdogs, keeping the top of the draft order intact. A window opens for the Jets if Houston upsets Tennessee. The Jets need a worse record than the Texans to surpass them in the draft order since Houston owns the tiebreaker. So, the only way the Jets can get ahead of Houston is by losing in Buffalo coupled with a Texans upset win over the Titans. Houston’s game against Tennessee will take place in the early window of the afternoon while the Jets kick off in the late afternoon, so Jets fans will know whether their team has a shot to move up in the draft order by the time kickoff arrives in Buffalo. It’s worth noting that the Texans beat the Titans in the rivals’ first meeting, and it was a multi-score Houston win on the road in Nashville. Houston defeated the Titans by a score of 22-13 in Week 11. Since that game kicked off, the Texans are 3-4 and the Titans are 3-3. New York cannot fall below No. 4 in the event of a loss, as they have clinched the SOS tiebreaker over the Giants, the only team who could tie the Jets (besides Houston) if they lose thsi week. What happens if the Jets win in Buffalo? If Jets win: Jets stay at #4 if Giants win (vs. Football Team) and Panthers win (at Buccaneers) Jets stay at #4 if Giants win, Panthers lose, and Jets win SOS tiebreaker over Panthers Jets fall to #5 if Giants win, Panthers lose and Panthers maintain SOS tiebreaker over Jets Jets fall to #5 if Giants lose and Panthers win Jets fall to #5 if Giants lose, Panthers lose, and Jets win SOS tiebreaker over Panthers Jets fall to #6 if Giants lose, Panthers lose, and Panthers maintain SOS tiebreaker over Jets If the Jets manage to knock off the Bills on the road, things will get interesting. New York could stay put or fall all the way down to the No. 6 pick. The SOS tiebreakers are a major factor here. While the Jets have clinched the SOS tiebreaker over the Giants – meaning the Jets will surely stay ahead of the Giants if the two teams both win or both lose this week – the Panthers currently have the SOS lead over the Jets. However, Carolina’s lead is slim enough to where the Jets can steal possession of the tiebreaker this week. So, we can’t say for sure what would happen if the Jets won and the Panthers lost to create a tie between the two teams. The Panthers’ schedule currently has a 138-134 record. The Jets’ schedule has a 140-136 record. That is a measly 2.0-game edge – and, since the two teams played one another, if the Panthers lose and the Jets win to create a tie in the standings, the two teams’ schedule records would be guaranteed to move at least one game closer to one another. So, if it gets to the point where the Jets-Panthers SOS tiebreaker matters, the Jets will have already narrowed the 2.0-game gap to 1.0 game. The Jets will need their opponents to make up just one game on Carolina’s opponents to create a tie in the SOS column. If the two teams tie in the SOS column, the Jets will get the higher pick, as the next tiebreaker would be head-to-head record and the Panthers beat the Jets this year. Simply put, there is a very real chance the Jets could fend off the Panthers if the two teams end up tying, despite the edge that Carolina currently has. Here is a look at the games that will affect the SOS battle between New York and Carolina. Wins by these teams will help the Jets gain a half-game of ground while losses will benefit Carolina: @Broncos over Chiefs (+0.5 game to winner – NYJ gains 0.5 if DEN wins, CAR gains 0.5 if KC wins; so on and so forth for games listed below) Cowboys over @Eagles @Browns over Bengals @Vikings over Bears @Texans over Titans @Cardinals over Seahawks Remember, the Jets need to make up 1.0 game on the Panthers to create an SOS tie and move the tiebreaker to the head-to-head, which they would win in regards to draft order. Since each of the above games is worth a half-game as it relates to the Jets-Panthers SOS margin, the Jets need to get at least four of the above six results to claim the tiebreaker over Carolina in the event the two teams tie. Alright, with tiebreaker mumbo-jumbo out of the way, let’s simplify our approach to how we should look at a potential Jets win. The Giants-Washington game will conclude before the Jets begin their game. If the Giants lose, we will know the Jets will definitely fall behind the Giants in the draft order if they beat the Bills. If the Giants win, we will know the Jets will not fall behind the Giants even if they beat the Bills. Carolina will play at the same time as the Jets. A Panthers win would be preferred to keep them off the Jets’ backs in case the Jets win. But even if the Panthers lose and the Jets win, the SOS tiebreakers could still fall the Jets’ way.
Seahawks’ first-round pick The Seahawks’ first-round pick currently sits at No. 7 overall. They are in a three-team tie with the Bears and Football Team for the seventh slot. Seattle and Chicago have both clinched the SOS tiebreaker over Washington, but only 0.5 games separate the Seahawks and Bears in the SOS standings, so while Seattle is ahead right now, things could go either way if those two teams end up tying. There are eight different spots this selection can fall. Seattle will stay in the same vicinity if it wins, but a loss opens up the possibility for a major free-fall. What happens if the Seahawks lose in Arizona? The Seahawks will face the Cardinals in Arizona. If Seahawks lose: Seahawks jump to #6 if Panthers win (at Tampa Bay) and Seahawks win SOS tiebreaker over Panthers Seahawks stay at #7 if Panthers lose and Bears win (at Minnesota) Seahawks stay at #7 if Panthers lose, Bears lose, and Seahawks maintain SOS tiebreaker over Bears Seahawks stay at #7 if Panthers win, Bears lose, Panthers win SOS tiebreaker over Seahawks, and Seahawks win SOS tiebreaker over Bears Seahawks fall to #8 if Panthers lose, Bears lose, and Bears win SOS tiebreaker over Seahawks Seahawks fall to #8 if Panthers win, Bears lose, and both Panthers/Bears win SOS tiebreaker over Seahawks Here’s the main thing you need to know: if the Seahawks win, they can fall no lower than No. 8, whereas if they win, they could potentially go all the way down to No. 13, so a Seahawks loss would be huge for the Jets. But the nitty-gritty of how the SOS tiebreakers play out will determine whether they stay at No. 7, rise one spot, or fall one spot in the event of a loss. The Seahawks can jump the Panthers and take the sixth pick, but they need a lot to fall their way. First, they need the Panthers to upset the Buccaneers. Then, they need all five of these specific outcomes to claim the SOS tiebreaker over Carolina: Colts win (@ Jaguars) Falcons win (vs. Saints) Giants win (vs. Football Team) Texans win (vs. Titans) Vikings win (vs. Bears) If Seattle loses, Carolina wins, and all five of the above teams win, the Seahawks will win their tiebreaker over the Panthers (and the Bears) to secure the sixth overall pick. You’d win a lot of money if you hit that parlay. It’s probably not going to happen. Expect Seattle to either stay at No. 7 or drop to No. 8 if they lose. Here’s how the Seahawks can fall to the eighth slot if they end up in a tie with the Bears. Seattle’s SOS lead over Chicago is a measly half-game. Seattle’s schedule has a 140-130-2 record while Chicago’s has a 140-129-3 record. With that in mind, this is anybody’s race to win. There are seven games this week that will have an impact on the SOS disparity between Seattle and Chicago. Here are those games and the victors Jets fans should root for if they want Seattle to maintain its SOS lead over Chicago: @Browns over Bengals (+0.5 game to winner – SEA gains 0.5 if CLE wins, CHI gains 0.5 if CIN wins; so on and so forth for games listed below) @Giants over Football Team (+1.0 game to winner) @Ravens over Steelers (+0.5 game to winner) @Texans over Titans (+0.5 game to winner) @falcons over Saints (+0.5 game to winner) @Buccaneers over Panthers (+0.5 game to winner) @Raiders over Chargers (+0.5 game to winner) Every team the Seahawks need to win is playing at home, so that’s a big edge for them. Picture the Seahawks as a 0.5-favorite with every game result listed above having the impact listed in parentheses. If the Seahawks remain ahead, the tiebreaker over Chicago is theirs. If the Bears take over, they win the tiebreaker. What happens if the Seahawks win in Arizona? The Seahawks can fall as far down as the No. 13 pick if they beat the Cardinals. If the Seahawks win, the results below will push them down the draft board. Some of these results are guaranteed to push the Seahawks down while others would need to be coupled with a to-be-determined SOS tiebreaker to push Seattle down. If Seahawks win: If Broncos lose vs. Chiefs – Seahawks drop 1 spot (guaranteed – SOS tiebreaker clinched) If Football Team loses @ Giants – Seahawks drop 1 spot (guaranteed – would have worse record) If Falcons lose vs. Saints – Seahawks drop 1 spot (guaranteed – SOS tiebreaker clinched) If Bears lose @ Vikings – Seahawks drop 1 spot (guaranteed – would have worse record) If Browns lose vs. Bengals – Seahawks drop 1 spot if Browns win SOS tiebreaker over Seahawks If Vikings beat Bears, SOS tiebreaker determines Seahawks’ fall. Both, one, or neither of Vikings and Bears could pass Seahawks depending on how SOS tiebreakers play out For the Seahawks to drop to No. 13, it would take a Seahawks win, Chiefs win, Giants win, Saints win, Bengals win, Vikings win, and for the Browns, Bears, and Vikings to win their SOS tiebreakers over the Seahawks. It’s borderline impossible for all that to happen and cause Seattle to drop that far. Here’s the bottom line: if Seattle wins, Jets fans will want as few of the results in the bulleted list above to happen as possible to limit the severity of Seattle’s fall. For every one of the results that occur in the list above, the Seahawks will drop another spot further if they win. Whew. You get all that?
I want to preface this by saying this is only a guide for optimal draft position for the Jets, which is why I've put guide in quotations. I'm all aboard the hoping the Jets beat the Bills on Sunday train but I saw this article (huge shoutout to Michael Nania and the Jets X-Factor crew) and thought it would be good to post on the board so everyone knows what to "root for" on Sunday! I'll update this on Sunday to see where we ultimately landed. Going into Week 18, the Jets pick can land anywhere from 3rd to 6th and Seattle's pick can land anywhere from 6th to 13th. For the Jets pick: If Jets lose: Jets jump to #3 if Texans win (vs. Titans) Jets stay at #4 if Texans lose If Jets win: Jets stay at #4 if Giants win (vs. Football Team) and Panthers win (at Buccaneers) Jets stay at #4 if Giants win, Panthers lose, and Jets win SOS tiebreaker over Panthers Jets fall to #5 if Giants win, Panthers lose and Panthers maintain SOS tiebreaker over Jets Jets fall to #5 if Giants lose and Panthers win Jets fall to #5 if Giants lose, Panthers lose, and Jets win SOS tiebreaker over Panthers Jets fall to #6 if Giants lose, Panthers lose, and Panthers maintain SOS tiebreaker over Jets The only situation that is somewhat up in the air would be a SOS tiebreaker with the Jets and Carolina in this scenario as we have already clinched a weaker SOS than the Giants going into this week. Here is a look at the games that will affect the SOS battle between New York and Carolina. Wins by these teams will help the Jets gain a half-game of ground while losses will benefit Carolina: @Broncos over Chiefs (+0.5 game to winner – NYJ gains 0.5 if DEN wins, CAR gains 0.5 if KC wins; so on and so forth for games listed below) Cowboys over @Eagles @Browns over Bengals @Vikings over Bears @Texans over Titans @Cardinals over Seahawks The Jets need to get at least four of the above six results to claim the tiebreaker over Carolina in the event the two teams tie record-wise. For the Seahawks pick: If Seahawks lose: Seahawks jump to #6 if Panthers win (at Tampa Bay) and Seahawks win SOS tiebreaker over Panthers Seahawks stay at #7 if Panthers lose and Bears win (at Minnesota) Seahawks stay at #7 if Panthers lose, Bears lose, and Seahawks maintain SOS tiebreaker over Bears Seahawks stay at #7 if Panthers win, Bears lose, Panthers win SOS tiebreaker over Seahawks, and Seahawks win SOS tiebreaker over Bears Seahawks fall to #8 if Panthers lose, Bears lose, and Bears win SOS tiebreaker over Seahawks Seahawks fall to #8 if Panthers win, Bears lose, and both Panthers/Bears win SOS tiebreaker over Seahawks Seattle and Chicago are very close in terms of SOS so they're the only team that could jump them in the event of both teams losing. There are seven games this week that will have an impact on the SOS disparity between Seattle and Chicago. Here are those games and the victors Jets fans should root for if they want Seattle to maintain its SOS lead over Chicago: @Browns over Bengals (+0.5 game to winner – SEA gains 0.5 if CLE wins, CHI gains 0.5 if CIN wins; so on and so forth for games listed below) @Giants over Football Team (+1.0 game to winner) @Ravens over Steelers (+0.5 game to winner) @Texans over Titans (+0.5 game to winner) @falcons over Saints (+0.5 game to winner) @Buccaneers over Panthers (+0.5 game to winner) @Raiders over Chargers (+0.5 game to winner) If Seahawks win: If Broncos lose vs. Chiefs – Seahawks drop 1 spot (guaranteed – SOS tiebreaker clinched) If Football Team loses @ Giants – Seahawks drop 1 spot (guaranteed – would have worse record) If Falcons lose vs. Saints – Seahawks drop 1 spot (guaranteed – SOS tiebreaker clinched) If Bears lose @ Vikings – Seahawks drop 1 spot (guaranteed – would have worse record) If Browns lose vs. Bengals – Seahawks drop 1 spot if Browns win SOS tiebreaker over Seahawks If Vikings beat Bears, SOS tiebreaker determines Seahawks’ fall. Both, one, or neither of Vikings and Bears could pass Seahawks depending on how SOS tiebreakers play out For the Seahawks to drop to 13th, it would take a Seahawks win, Chiefs win, Giants win, Saints win, Bengals win, Vikings win, and for the Browns, Bears, and Vikings to win their SOS tiebreakers over the Seahawks. TLDR; if you want to have the best draft picks possible, you want the Texans to win, the Panthers to win, the Jets and Seahawks to lose, and SEA to "lose" it's SOS tiebreaker to Carolina and Chicago. That would result in our picks being 3rd and 6th.
Good to know that the Seahawks pick can't be any lower than 8. Who would've thought that pick would've been top 10? Fuckin idiot Seahawks trading two 1sts for a Will LB.
A hell of a lot of hard work to hope the Jets, Texans and Seahawks lose Well done, a great effort Wouldn't picks #3 and #6 be a fantastic game changer? A Top DE, A CB or the Top S or trade back to some QB-hungry fools for a bounty. No wonder the off season is far more exciting than the actual season lol
Thanks man. One of the great threads of the week. This should be our guide for rest of the week. I will lock the Tankhaton thread and we can continue her.
Great job NYJ1970! But I like to keep things simple. First, I always want the Jets to win, so I'm not going to root against them for the sake of draft position. As to all the other teams, I really don't care enough to get invested in a particular outcome, or a convoluted series of outcomes - I'll just hope for the best. No matter what, the Jets will have two high first round picks and should certainly be able to fill two of their holes with player that has a strong chance for success. I haven't yet studied which players/positions might be available, but after Sunday I'll know what actual spot the Jets will be drafting in and I can get a better idea of who I prefer them to take at that point. None of the above is meant to put down your effort, which is great, but for me, I just don't want to tax my age-dwindling brain cells that much.
No problem... It sucks that this is our excitement this late in the season. You more or less have to convince yourself of the silver lining in this lost season. But I think everybody knew this season would never result in playoffs? But I will say this.... After Zach put together such a great game against the Bucs and the rest of this list of rag tag players rallied around him and played out of their minds, I actually think the Jets have a shot this weekend? I actually think they could upset the Bills. Call me crazy but I do think they have a legitimate shot....
First off awesome post by the OP. I am with @ColoradoContrails on the outcome though. I want the Jets to win. Always. I'll take picks 5-7 or 6-7 all day knowing that Wilson and a depleted squad beat Buffalo in Buffalo when they need the win.
Definitely. I can't think of a more important offseason than this. Personally, I would prefer to take Evan Neal or an edge rusher assuming Hutchinson or Thibodeaux is available, and trade down with the Seattle pick. However, I'd like to ask everyone in this thread, what do you think of Takiing Lawrence at 4? So long as we traded down with the Seattle and got like say Linderbaum later on? I would LOVE that. Your thoughts?
Nice post! So best case scenario the Jets pick at #3 and #6. Worst case scenario the Jets pick at #6 and #13. Most likely will fall somewhere in the middle. I'm thinking #4 overall and #7 overall. Not too bad. Plenty of ammo for JD to work with.
Great post - would love to come out of this draft with (from rounds 1 & 2): - WR - CB - TE or S Wouldn't be mad if we went OL with the first pick if Evan Neal fell to us I know we need a pass rusher but we have no idea what Lawson can do at this point and he could be the answer so willing to wait a year on that one.
I'm very happy with 4 and 7, but 3 and 6 would be huge. This way only one team in front of the Jets needs to not draft a pass rush in order for the Jets to get Hutchinson or Kayvon.
How is it that the Jets' opponents have played 4 more games than the Panthers opponents? That doesn't make sense.
Tbh the worst case scenario of 6 & 13 sounds pretty great, it’s likely to be even better though. I will be rooting hard for a Jets win and Seattle loss to close out the season.
I’m of a different opinion on pass rusher…I would not bank on anything from Lawson at all…Achilles is tough and he’s a burst type player…he may come back, but likely not at 100%. And he’s had plenty of injury history outside of that. He’s a nice player but if I’m running the team, I’m looking at him as a nice bonus if he returns at a strong level, but no way in hell I’d rely on that. We’ve ignored pass rush for over a decade…and that’s the key to any defense but especially ours. 4th 5th and 6th round DBs are ok if you have a strong pass rush…otherwise it’s tough. I would also add OL to our list of needs. Not sure what we’ll get from Becton, but at least Fant has played well at LT…I’d be fine with moving Becton to RT and keeping Fant on the blind side honestly. But I’d still like to add OL. agree 100% we need WR, CB, TE and S help as well, but I’d go edge rusher before any other D position if it were my call
Just to make sure you understand, the Seahawks pick won't be lower than 8th if they lose to the Cardinals in Week 18. If they won, it could fall all the way down to 13th.
