At this point Jamies Winston and Leonard Williams seem to be the cream of the crop in this draft (let's call them tier one). I would say that either one of them would have to do something really horrible not to be picked in the top five. That leaves only three other players coming off the board before our pick at # 6. The following players are the most likely candidates for those three picks (tier two). Marcus Mariota QB Amari Cooper WR Kevin White WR DeVante Parker WR (some have him as the #1 WR) Brandon Scherff OT La'el Collins OT Danny Shelton DT Shane Ray Edge Vic Beasley Edge Dante Fowler Edge Randy Gregory Edge Alvin "Bud" Dupree Edge Landon Collins S Trae Waynes CB Needless to say there will be some very good players available at 6 that other teams may want to trade up for. Mariota and Cooper are the most likely targets but someone could just as easily fall in love with a pass rusher or offensive lineman that they think will take them over the top. Whether we are talking about a trade with with two first rounders it is possible that the Browns or the Saints would be willing to give us at least a second rounder to move up from 12 or 13 to 6. I don't know about you but I don't see any player in tier two that is so good that I wouldn't settle for a different player in tier two (12 or 13 overall) if it meant picking up another first or second rounder. Thoughts?
Yes I agree. It'd be nice to find a partner to trade down with. But yes Winston and Williams are in a different echelon in the draft.
To begin with, I don't think Winston and Williams are in a tier by themselves. I don't see them as that much better than the other players projected to go that high. Also you have a lot of players listed, who, will most likely all be 1st round picks, but I can't see but a handful of those being realistic picks for the top 5: Mariota, Cooper, White, Fowler, Gregory, and Shelton. Maybe Beasley. That's it. Someone would have to blow me away with a big overpayment to entice me to trade down. I think there is a dropoff after the players I named. I don't think an OL will go in the top 10, and no CB may go in the top 15, maybe even top 20. Unless there is huge competition for the #6 pick, you also wouldn't be picking up a first round pick for trading down 6-7 spots.
I'd prob just stay at 6. Jets can get a really good player at that pick. Marcus Mariota QB, La'el Collins OT, Randy Gregory Edge, Trio of receivers, and Fowler - I'd rather not trade down this draft.
Are Fowler and Beasley really all that much better than Ray, Gregory, or Dupree? Who is to say that DeVante Parker isn't better than White or Cooper (or both)? In a league where a LT is the only think keeping a QB off of injured reserve you don't think anyone would reach for a LT in the top 6? Landon Collins is a wild card, possibly the best safety since Sean Taylor. You don't think he could sneak into the top 6? If the Redskins stay put and Leonard Williams is gone their biggest need is DT. Who is to say that Danny Shelton doesn't go at 5,7, or 8 to the Skins, Bears, of Falcons? You were very comfortable with the idea than Marcus Mariota is the real thing despite a lot of red flags? Are you equally certain that the top 6-7 picks are set in stone?
There are often surprises, but to answer your questions, I don't think there will be over one surprise, if that, in the top 5. I had Gregory up there with Fowler and maybe Beasley. Dupree will go later in the first round based on everything I've seen. Parker doesn't have the speed of either White or Cooper, I don't think he will go in the top 5, and maybe not even in the top 10. I don't see any way Landon Collins goes even in the top 10, maybe even top 15, much less the top 5. I mentioned Shelton as a possibility for the top 5.
There are two possible goals I would have if we were to trade down: 1. To fleece the Eagles by helping them get Mariota while exacting a huge premium 2. Obtaining both of the Brown's first rounders by helping them get something they want (QB/WR/etc.). Rotoworld had reported that the Eagles plan to use Bradford as a chip to trade up. They also reported that the Browns have reportedly offered a first rounder (didn't say which one) for Bradford. Using the trade value chart below I put together a trade that would give Mariota to the Eagles, Bradford to the Browns, and reward us and the Titans equally for making it happen. http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp I assigned Bradford a value of 1,000 (more than pick 19 but less than pick 12) and discounted future picks by one round for 2016 and about 1.5 rounds for 2017. I have the Eagles paying a premium of 630 (315 for us and the Titans) to get their QB. Here is what I came up with: Code: Points Pick # Titans get 2015 Jets 1st 1600 6 2015 Eagles 1st 850 20 2015 Jets 2nd 530 37 2015 Eagles 3rd 170 84 2015 Jets 4th 96 101 2016 Eagles 3rd 100 2017 Eagles 2nd 150 Jets get 2015 Browns 1st 1200 12 2015 Bills 1st 875 19 2015 Browns 3rd 205 77 2016 Eagles 1st 500 Browns get 2015 Titans 2nd 580 33 2015 Eagles 2nd 380 52 2015 Jets 3rd 240 70 2015 Eagles 4th 74 110 Sam Bradford 1000 Eagles get 2015 Titans 1st 2600 2
Crazy to think the browns would give up a number 1 pick for Bradford. If that does happen this is the definition of a fucked up season.
LOL! Didn't realize I had omitted Winston. It wasn't intentional, just an oversight on my part. Didn't mean to confuse you.
