http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/cfb/81514/Pauline--Jets-eyeing-Mayfield-at-No.-3-pick Rumor is that if Darnold is gone at pick 3, the Jets will/could take Mayfield 3rd Overall.
Yeah, baby! That would be doubly good because we not only get Mayfield, but dodge a bullet in not getting Darnold.
If the Jets take Mayfield with Rosen or Allen still on the board (a guarantee) , I will be pissed. If they do so, and Rosen and Allen go on to be great and Mayfield goes on to bust, I would stop being a fan as the Jets are hopeless. If Mayfield goes on to be great, then I will be fine with it.
I think it would be a huge mistake. Baker would probably have been there at #6. That said Im not going to get worked up until it happens.
I got another rumor if you’d like to post. If Darnold is gone at 3, the Jets would/could draft Rosen. And another.. If Darnold is gone at 3, the Jets would/could draft Allen. one more.. If Darnold is available at 3 the Jets would/could draft him.
This is silly. We all have our preferences, but let's see them play before we label anyone as a reason we will stop being fans. All are more likely to bust than go on to be good at this point. Let's just hope they get it right.
If I had to rank the QBs today. I would go: 1. Mayfield - Highest ceiling of all 4 QBs and arguably with a similar floor. They all have red flags but he is likeliest to develop into a star. The poster boy for analytics. With analytics claiming him to be the best QB under pressure, best QB making NFL type throws, best QB on third down, best ball placement, best QB throwing into tight windows, best QB when throwing to his 2nd, third and 4th reads and so on. Really a remarkable case of analytics in Mayfield vs measurables in Allen. 2. Rosen I really like Rosen but question his ability to survive in the short and long term. 3. Darnold the safest pick and arguably the highest floor. 4. Lamar Jackson 5. Mason Rudoplh 6. Allen - Would be a nice 3rd or 4th round developmental pick but not a 1st rounder. The lowest floor and ceiling of any of the top QBs. If everything goes right for him he could develop into a serviceable Blake Bortles type QB but he would need so many things for him to go right to develop into a bottom 10 QB. It appears to be very unrealistic to believe that he can join the NFL and suddenly learn all the skills a starting QB needs. I would argue it is more likely that he might develop into a career back-up QB. Being a 1st round pick he will get playing time and experience that should help him develop the skills to be a back-up. Essentially he is fool's gold. He looks pretty but its all packaging with no substance. Has not shown the ability to play QB. To throw with anticipation, to be accurate, to throw on time, pocket presence, ability under pressure, or the the ability to move the chains and convert 3rd downs. He makes a nice highlight reel but he has not shown any of the qualities that one looks for in a QB.
I think that's true for many of us. If the Jets choose the QB we don't like and he busts, we will be miserable and angry. If they choose the QB we don't like and he proves to be very good, if not a star, then I think everyone (well those who care more about the Jets than they do being right) will be happy. If they choose the one we like and he succeeds, we'll be ecstatic. If they choose the one we like and he disappoints or is a bust, then we will be unhappy and perhaps a little embarrassed, but will get over it. I would be very happy with either Mayfield or Rosen, but would not be happy with either Allen or Darnold, as I think they are the two most likely to be utterly meh, if not outright busts. Even so, if the Jets take one of those two, I will root like crazy for him, and will gladly eat crow if I was wrong. As a former poster used to say frequently, "We're all just guessing when it comes to players in the draft. We don't have the benefit of meeting the players, getting all the scouting reports, comments from former coaches, and for the most part, don't have the knowledge or experience that those in the NFL do."
We don't disagree often, but in this case we do, albeit respectfully. I love Mayfield, but even I don't think he's as great as you claim in all those categories. I think Darnold is definitely NOT the safest pick. He only has 1 1/2 years of starting experience in college, and I don't think a single QB with that little experience in college has ever succeeded in the NFL. He also turns the ball over a lot, has that hitch in his throwing motion which could lead to a lot more interceptions in the NFL. I think if the team that takes Darnold plays him immediately he will bust. The only way he succeeds is if he sits for a year or two. I think he has the second highest bust quotient of any of the top 4 QBs after Allen. I also think that Allen has the highest ceiling if he fixes his accuracy and decision-making problems. In terms of heart, competitive fire and leadership, Mayfield wins hands down imo. I think Rosen lacks some here, and as you said, I think there is a real question if he can last long in the NFL, even though he probably is the most naturally talented of the group.
I don't claim that to be true rather I just say that is where he is ranked by analytics. But I do really love the whole analytics vs. measurable debate. I love the idea of analytics to smooth out the scouting process and reduce the bias that we get from highlight reels and wow type plays but I also do agree that analytics and statistics are not the answer but just another tool to give us better perspective and keep teams from making the same mistakes. I agree with you about Darnold and his fumbles. After suffering through the NFL's all time fumble leader per game in Sanchez drafting a guy with high fumbles scares me. But that might be more of a problem with his OL than Sanchez's problems. But in comparison to the red flags for Mayfield with his height and coming from a spread offense and Rosen with his small frame and durability issues there is the perception that is often expressed that Darnold is the safest of the QBs.
Yep, agreed 100% with all of that. Except replace Darnold with Mayfield. Hopefully the Jets pick the right guy for their team. That is something all fans can agree on.
Saying Mayfield has the highest ceiling out of all the QBs is like saying Johnny Football will stop drinking... it’s never going to happen... Highest ceiling by far is Allen. He could be Elway/Marino/Wentz rolled into one.
