While yes its only week 6, the fact is its going to be pretty tough for us to make the playoffs at this point. And there are a few things that I think must happen for us to make the playoffs, outside of several teams having complete meltdowns or us having an unrealistically good finish to the season. 1) The Jets HAVE to finish at least 7-4, which would also require a bit of luck to work out or go at least 8-3 which could be pretty tough. 2) The Jets HAVE to sweep the Bills. Truthfully this could straight up be the most important factor for us making the playoffs, and I realistically dont see us making the playoffs without a lot of luck if we don't do this. 3) The Jets must beat the Chargers AND have the Raiders win the afc south while having the Chargers finish 5-6 , OR the Ravens (again) /Pats must both beat the Steelers AND the Jets get the tiebreaker with the Steelers (either via conf record which ours sucks or same matchups which means we beat KC and KC beats them) , OR the Raiders completely bomb the rest of their season and finish 5-6 (its worth noting that they have some VERY easy matchups vs CLE, KCx2, Den, Min, Mia), OR the Steelers completely bomb their season (somehow finishing 5-6) And this is all the while completely writing off teams like the Bengals/Chiefs/Titans who oddly all are ahead of us in the wildcard race. I mean obviously we could finish 8-3 and have a little wiggle room for #3, but an 8-3 record with our schedule from here on out is damn tough. And if the Steelers win their division then our hopes pretty much comes down to either Oakland or completely SD bombing their schedule. And if we dont beat SD and the Steelers win their division then us making the playoffs 100% comes down to Oakland completely shitting the bed. I still believe but shit, this is supposda be the kinda stuff you dont have to worry about until the end of the season
Its feasible to go 9-7 and make the playoffs, but its going to be similar to 2009 in terms of everything going the Jets way to make it. If they don't win the rest of their divisional games, and beat up on the rest of the NFC East, they won't make it in. That's 8 games right there. The NFC East is the most erratic, strangest division in the NFL. If the Jets can take advantage, they'll be in good shape to come out of this thing alive. They go 3-4 before the bye, this season is lost.... unless they win 6 in a row after it.
Who ever would of thought that the single 2 most important games of the season would be @ Buf and Buf @ NYJ for us though. I mean simply put the easiest way for us to make the playoffs is to go 7-4, sweep the Bills, and have oakland finish 5-6 in their last 11. Either that it comes down to the Steelers who have been kinda shakey this year Anything else gets too complicated or relies on the Chargers/Ravens completely falling apart in epic fashion.
Good post, and you're right--it is kinda crazy to have to look at playoff scenarios at this point--but it's appropriate given the Jets current situation. Take a look at Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Oakland's respective schedules...there's no way in hell Baltimore doesn't win at least 12 games. Oakland looks like a lock for at least 10, and Pittsburgh just crushed a decent Titans team with an injured Ben, no James Harrison, no Casey Hampton, and a slew of lineman either out or banged up...safe to say Pittsburgh ain't going away anytime soon either. Jets have a tougher schedule than any of them...they also get the Chargers when they're coming off a bye week and expected to have Gates back. They've looked unimpressive so far, but they're still winning--and winning early in the year--something a Rivers team has never done. The good news is they get the Bills when they're missing all of their deep threats (Easley and Parrish on IR, Jones out 4-6 weeks), so just shut down the run and they should be easy to defend. On defense Buffalo has an opportunistic seconday, and Sanchez is horribly inconsistent. If the Jets run the ball at least 65% of time then they'll win going away. Don't discount the Titans to cloud the wildcard picture even further...the Texans are banged up and it'll be a struggle between those two all year imo
7-4 and a sweep of the Bills and a win over San Diego might do it for us. The 2 Bills games will be massive. Buffalo is 2 games ahead of us, and sweeping them would knock them down, prop us up, and give us the tiebreaker over our most direct competitor (assuming NE wins the division as usual). The San Diego game has underrated importance, too. Since we lost to Oakland, we lose that tiebreaker, BUT if we beat San Diego, we own the tiebreaker over them. As a result, we would then be huge Raiders fans in terms of winning the AFC West. Then 9-7 would put us in over Buffalo and San Diego, assuming neither gets to 10 wins. There's a good chance San Diego gets there, but who knows. For the sake of argument, let's say San Diego takes the West, New England the East, and Baltimore the North (the most likely scenario IMO). WC Contenders Buffalo: 4-1 (2 games remaining) Cincinnati: 3-2 Oakland: 3-2 (beat us) Tennessee: 3-2 Pittsburgh: 3-2 Cleveland: 2-2 KC: 2-3 NYJ: 2-3 Can't see Cincy or Cleveland getting more than 8 wins. Too many games against tough teams remaining. Cincy could start 5-2 for sure, but the schedule gets harder. KC is too much of a trainwreck to make the playoffs with 3 losses already and games vs GB, NE, NYJ, SD, PIT, OAK, and OAK left. So drop those 3 teams. Buffalo has 2 left vs Miami and home games vs Denver, Washington, and Tennessee. If we don't sweep them, I could definitely see them with 10 wins. Tennessee could be a problem. They have 3 wins, with 2 left vs Indy, home games against Cincy and Jacksonville, and a bunch of other winnable games (@CAR, vs HOU w/o Andre Johnson after a bye, @CAR, vs TAM, @BUF, @ATL). They could get to 9 wins without trying too hard and possibly more. Oakland's next 3 games are at home against Cleveland, KC, and Denver. They also have another game vs KC, @Min, vs CHI, and @MIA. I could see them getting 10, maybe 11 wins. Hopefully, they sweep San Diego and run with that division. Speaking of San Diego, they have a MNF game at KC, a home game left against Denver, and road games against Jacksonville and Chicago. But their schedule is pretty difficult. Their 4 wins are against teams that are a combined 4-18. Hopefully, the Jets beat them. I could definitely see them slipping to 9, where we would own that tiebreaker. Pittsburgh has games left vs JAX, @ARI, @CIN, @KC, vs CIN, vs CLE, @SF, vs STL, and @CLE. With the possible exception of SF, Pittsburgh will be favored in all of those games. The only 2 games I left out are New England and Baltimore, but both at home. Pittsburgh should get to 10 for sure. Finally, Baltimore has @SEA, @JAX, vs CIN, vs IND, vs SF, vs ARI, and 2x vs CLE and CIN. Only 2 games they will be underdogs in are at PIT and at SD. Honestly, looking at all these schedules makes me a little depressed. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are both near-locks to make the playoffs, and Tennessee's schedule isn't that hard. It wouldn't hurt to root for them and San Diego to start dropping some games. 9 wins isn't impossible, but we would have to sweep Buffalo and beat SD, I don't see it happening. 10 wins is the more likely avenue. By the way, the Jets have 2 vs Miami, vs KC, @ DEN, @WAS remaining. The good news is that the toughest games left are vs NE, vs SD, @BUF, and @PHI. While none of those games will be easy, we've already played our 2 toughest games of the season, and all of those games are winnable.
Frankly though, I don't see a point in making it to the playoff. We KNOW this team will choke on one of the road playoff game, like it has in the past two years. The offense looks like same mediocre bullshit that has been in place for the past two years, and the defense has regressed a lot. At this rate, Jets are not winning the SB this year no matter how you slice it.
Considering where most of us thought we'd be before the season, this is so, SO sad. I picked 11-5. I still didn't think we'd pass NE for the division title, but I thought we were a powerhouse with a lock for the playoffs. Winning the division and getting home field wasn't the slightest bit crazy. 5 games in and we have threads on what we'll need to do to just make the playoffs. Don't get me wrong....I'm not even sure we are a playoff team right now as well. It's just such a damn letdown so far. I'm praying we can turn it around.....NOW!!!
there's always a point to making the playoffs, to say otherwise is idiotic. It builds credibility and you never know what can happen.
you keep relying on what the jets have done in the past. although it was great being a jets fan during that time, it doesn't mean they're going to continue winning on the road. the percentages suck quite frankly and thats in the past. this is a completely different season and different team. oline is not as good, receivers are not as good and the defense to date has not been as good. even if the defense steps up to what we fans have come accustomed to, the offense is terrible! the odds that this team gets to a third consecutive afc title game are off the charts, especially with what i see as a team that has taken a step back. it was a great ride and i think we missed our best opportunity at a superbowl, and a minor rebuild on the fly is in the making. perhaps back to contending in 2012.
There is still a lot of football left this season, we have all seen epic meltdowns of many other teams in the past. you guys just came off a NIGHTMARE road trip against stellar teams. I think many of you figured there was a strong possibility you might lose 2 or 3 of these last 3 games anyway. Do not count NE as winning the division yet this year either, look at their remaining schedule. The predictions below could very well be a reality given our crappy Defense. Granted, we do have a BYE after Dallas to prepare for Pittsburgh, but the Giants play us tough, as do Pittsburgh and the Jets, the major question mark is Dallas and they just seem to get it done when needed. Patriots: Dallas(H) - L Pittsburgh(A) -L NYG(H)-L Jets(A)-L KC(H)-W Philly(A)-W Colts(H)-W Washington(A)-W Denver(A)-W Miami(H)-W Buffalo(H)-W 11-5 Record Jets: Miami(H) - W Chargers(H) - L Buffalo(A) - W(Must WIN Game) New England(H) - W(Must WIN Game) Denver(A) - W Buffalo(H) - W(Must WIN Game) Washington(A) - W KC(H) - W Philly(A) - W Giants(H) - W Jets 12-4 Assuming you beat New England at home which I am not sure will happen, but everything else looks feasible. Even a loss to NE at home puts you at 11-5. Im pretty sure you make the wild card with an 11-5 record.
Nice breakdown Mack. It's impossible to say what kind of team we are just now but I am a great believer that peaking at the season end is absolutely crucial and we have proven last 2 years that as long as we get to the dance we can be a factor.
I've said all along that expectations have been through the roof. Beginning with the Hard Knocks nonsense and the comments about "kicking their ass" and "we're going to the Superbowl" coupled with Woody Johnson signing all kinds of talent to bolster even higher hopes that "this is really going to happen this year," which was in reality a thinly veiled attempt to finish selling his overpriced, cockamaie PSLs. And here we are, back where we started, only with a new stadium, cockamamie overpriced PSLs and season tickets mostly sold, only with a deflation of hopes in the aftermath after realizing we're not really who we were told we were and/or thought we were. We still have to actually kick ass and stop talking about kicking ass. Right back to the basics... winning one game at a time, just like everybody else.
If making the playoffs means that Schotty comes back in 2012, then I will pass on a 2011 playoff run!
You have the Jets going 9-1 which would give them 11-4. You missed a game. Assuming whatever game you've left out is a loss, that's 11-5, but that's not going to happen. The Jets aren't capable of going 9-2 over the next 11 games because their defense is not nearly good enough to make up for their crappy offense. The conservative Ryan-Schottenheimer-Sanchez offense is a prescription for losing. Because the Jets don't/won't spread the field, defenses bunch up near the LOS, enabling them to defend the short passing game and to shut down the run. Predicting that the Jets will sweep their remaining 5 divisional games is an utter pipe dream. Divisional games are always unpredictable, but the Jets have simply not been playing well enough on either side of the ball to sweep the Bills, and they may not even sweep the Fins. It's much more likely that the Jets go 2-4 in the division than 5-1.
Jets need to win at least 8 if not 9. I don't think 9-7 does it. Anyway, let's see this team beat a few decent teams before we even think that they're playoff worthy.
That's a bit odd. You have us catching the Patriots with them tanking the next four games to bring us even, and then both teams running the table. Cutting against the grain of probabilities, donchathink?
Just saying.. But what if we end up sweeping buffalo and beating NE at home which is definitely possibly. Would we have a chance at winning the division then?
No way the Jets win out. We are still due another headscratching loss in which the team "prepared well all week" and came out flat. My money is on the @ Philly game in which they get destroyed 35-7
