One simple question: How many people have it and will never get sick enough to know/care? If it's way more than we realize, then coronavirus in terms of danger is essentially a super-contagious flu. Still a big problem because it compresses a flu season's worth of hospitalizations and deaths into a much shorter period, which taxes the hospitals and causes extra deaths. So the social distancing measures we're taking to flatten the curve are worth it. But we'll be able to relax those restrictions in the next month or two, and things should be close to normal by the summer. On the other hand, there's no guarantee that's what's going on. In the latter case, the current measures are flattening the curve, but once we relax them, the virus will come roaring back. And it will affect the entire country, not just the regions it's currently affecting. (Even worse, the virus could be very deadly, lose steam during the summer, and come roaring back this winter. That's what Spanish flu did.) This is the scenario where we end up with hundreds of thousands or millions of deaths, and/or a prolonged recession/depression. Right now, it's too soon to say.