The X Factor for Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Politics' started by HomeoftheJets, Mar 26, 2020.

  1. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    One simple question: How many people have it and will never get sick enough to know/care? If it's way more than we realize, then coronavirus in terms of danger is essentially a super-contagious flu. Still a big problem because it compresses a flu season's worth of hospitalizations and deaths into a much shorter period, which taxes the hospitals and causes extra deaths. So the social distancing measures we're taking to flatten the curve are worth it. But we'll be able to relax those restrictions in the next month or two, and things should be close to normal by the summer.

    On the other hand, there's no guarantee that's what's going on. In the latter case, the current measures are flattening the curve, but once we relax them, the virus will come roaring back. And it will affect the entire country, not just the regions it's currently affecting. (Even worse, the virus could be very deadly, lose steam during the summer, and come roaring back this winter. That's what Spanish flu did.) This is the scenario where we end up with hundreds of thousands or millions of deaths, and/or a prolonged recession/depression. Right now, it's too soon to say.
     
  2. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    I have to believe that they're quite scared about how it's transmitted and the length of time that it can live on surfaces in a high enough density to infect another person days later.

    They said they'd found traces of this thing on that cruise line 17 days later. Fauci pointed out that that doesn't always mean it was potent enough to infect, but then again if an infected person (who doesn't know it) sneezes on the conveyor belt at the food store, it's not like most facilities have a cleaning crew that wipes down such areas effectively enough to kill it.

    I think a lot of your points are good as to why this thing is scary. I'm sure there's information that we may never know about it too. The vaccine can't come soon enough.
     
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  3. SOXXX2

    SOXXX2 Well-Known Member

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    Need more data to, whose to say that actually twice as many people have it but those other half are just carriers (have no symptoms whatsoever) and the death rate percentage is actually much lower and this virus isnt near as dangerous as what people think.
     
  4. JetBlue

    JetBlue Well-Known Member

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    The other unknown, to our benefit, is how many people already had it, showed no symptoms, and built up the antibodies?

    That being said, that possibility shouldn't dictate policy. We have to slow the curve now so hospitals can continue to treat new cases at a rate that won't hopefully overwhelm them. California is likely to be on mandatory stay at home orders into May.
     
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  5. Dierking

    Dierking Well-Known Member

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    NH just went on stay at home orders until May 4.
     
  6. JetBlue

    JetBlue Well-Known Member

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    that's cutting it close for anyone with Cinco de Mayo plans.
     
  7. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    Unleashing a whole other form of Corona virus. :eek:
     
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  8. SOXXX2

    SOXXX2 Well-Known Member

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    If everything is shut down until May, most people who had it, should be over it. The amount of contagious people should be very minimal, also if business did reopen and the outbreak "restarts" itself, the hospitals should be able to handle the intake at that point.

    Obviously this virus isn't going to go away this year, but I think the extreme measures should do enough long term so when everything resumes, the virus will just be like any other Flu. If you get it, then stay home, even if everything is reopened. Obviously we need more data, but if a lot of people are just carriers and have built up a resistance than it may not be as bad as once presumed.
     
  9. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    It’s March, what were you guys doing anyway?
     
  10. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    They have to slow open everything back up, the way cuomo eased us into the pause. Once we think it’s clear there should remain a 50% capacity for restaurants and gyms. Give the movie theaters and events another 2 weeks from that point before reopening etc. it can’t be just a flip of the switch and everything opens.
     
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  11. SOXXX2

    SOXXX2 Well-Known Member

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    Good ideas, I have heard letting young people back to work first (18-40). I think 50% capacity, as well as keeping social gatherings down for a slightly longer period would be smart to. Restaurants reopened, Bars should be given slightly more time, or reduce capacity like you have said. Movie Theaters remain at 50% capacity with seats spread out.
     
  12. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    If it's only twice as many people who have it as we realize, the death rate will be still be something like 1% as opposed to something like 2%. And a 1% death rate would be catastrophic (a typical flu has a 0.1% death rate). We'd have to hope it's more like 10x as many people as we realize. Which is theoretically possible (e.g. swine flu), but the last thing we should do is bank on it.
     
  13. Dierking

    Dierking Well-Known Member

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    You clearly have no appreciation for fine mud.
     
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