Here's the thing. The Big Problem so far. Our Pass Defense stinks. Tell me what you think. Here's IMO why: While we're in the middle of the pack per pass attempts against our defense (181), 66.9% of those passes have been completed, leading to a large amount of pass completions (121). Only 4 teams are giving up a greater completion % of pass attempts (Denver, Houston, Arizona, Cleveland). Perhaps you'll say, "We're only giving up underneath stuff. Not a biggie. What's the Average Per Completion?" The AVG is 7.1, which while it is more towards the middle of the pack, here's a number that is making alot of trouble for us: 40.3%. 40.3% is the percentage of completions that are going for first downs against our defense, a number which indicates the worst performance in this category in the league. #32 in the league. Now, maybe you'll say, "But we've faced two of the most dynamic passing offenses in the NFL in Arizona and San Diego. The stats are skewed. How did we do against the others?" Against Pennington's Dolphins, we allowed him to go 26 of 43 (60.5%) for 251 yards (5.8 avg) and 2 TDS, with only one int, thrown in desperation in the last seconds. Pennington threw 15 FDs in that game. The Dolphins only ran for 2 FDs. The Patriots, with Cassel in his first NFL start completed 16 of 23 passes (69.6%) with 10 of those passes going for first downs (they had 6 rushing fds). His avg was 7.2 yards per completion on 165 yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick, another neophyte, was 20 of 33 for yes, only 152 yards (4.6 avg), but he is still completing 60.6% of passes, and with 10 of his 20 completions going for first downs. Thats 50% of his completions went for fds, as compared to only 3 rushing FDs. The thing that we should all realize is that we haven't been able to really embarrass any of these QBs, severely limited QBs. QBs that should have gone home in statistical body bags. Instead, what we see is our defense carved up by a high percentage efficiency strategy. That's not to say in the games against Warner and Rivers, our Pass Defense wasn't completely exposed. It was. Rivers put a 19 of 25 for 250ish and 3 TDs (and one int for pick six to start the game). Lets see, that's 76% for 10 yards per completion. A rating of 130.0. 12 of his 19 completions (63.2%) went for first downs. 4 were for 20+ ( a fifth for 19 yards), and 1 of those was a 60 yard completion. There were blown coverages all over the field. Warner put up a twilight zone game. 40 of 57 for 472 yards, and 2 TDs with 3 picks to go with. This is a game where the pressure seemed to pay off. But the bottom line is the efficiency: 70.3% for 8.3 yards a pop. And here's the kicker. 26 of Warner's 40 passes went for first downs (65%). That's compared to 5 rushing and 2 by penalty. The figures above are vexed by another stat on performance that we are all drooling over, our league-leading 18 sacks (also - 18 only in 5 games). That figure makes our pass-defense so frustrating, because usually, sacks are an indication of QB pressure on passing downs, and pressure on the OL and QB on passing plays usually tilt the balance in favor of the defense, on those plays. In the above three games, against Pennington, Cassel, and Fitzpatrick, we had 4, 4 and 5 sacks, and only one INT which came at the end of regulation. Against Warner we had 5 sacks, and Rivers 0. For our defense, it's either hit or miss on passing plays. When we sack the QB, that's a hit, when we don't the indications point to poor coverage somewhere, or poor scheming. One thing that really pisses most fans off, is the prevent defense. I've never understood using this defense beyond 10 seconds and under in a half or game. The concept just makes no sense to me. It doesn't have to be a pure "Prevent" either. It just has to do with over-scheming on the safe side. Factoring aggression out of playcalling and the pass rush out of the defense. Take away the pass rush and the aggression, give the other team momentum. Sounds like it's just asking to complicate things, both on the scoreboard and in the trainer's room. When you take the foot off the pedal, the logic some hold to is it reduces injury. I think the truth is the opposite. It makes your players more vulnerable, and because they are on the field for longer, they are more vulnerable for longer. In the Arizona game for example, we came out and didn't totally go into a shell, but we played much less aggressively. Likewise, and this is probably THEE major point to take out of this, our defense has had a real hard time covering RBs, and 3rd WRs IMO, especially underneath. Checking in with Football Outsiders (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef) not including this week our coverage (DVOA) on opponents' #1 and #2 WRs has been very good, #4 in the league and #12 in the league respectively. That is a credit to Revis and Lowery and the Safeties helping. Even versus TEs, we rank #6 in DVOA. Now, in covering teams' #3 WRs and RBs, we are 31st and 29th in the league. I don't know how well those FO stats hold up to the eyeball test. In watching the games I've had a lingering suspicion that our LBs and Safeties are not so good coverage wise, and that our CBs are often giving yup too much cushion. Revis is a good player, and he's respected around the league. Lowery is ok, he is hot and cold. Rhodes is fair, but no other safety we have can cover, and Pace of the LBs, seems most adept, but we have had a lot of problems on crossing routes, and underneath stuff against our CBs, S, and LBs. And apparently, WRs are giving us a hard time. In fact we've had a lot of different problems with receptions and yards coming from all over. Here's the breakdown from our games' boxscores: MIA: A. Fasano 8 84 1 17 D. Martin 4 53 1 24 Camarillo 3 37 0 17 R. Brown 3 28 0 13 T. Ginn 2 17 0 14 R. Williams 4 15 0 15 P. Cobbs 1 9 0 9 D. Bess 1 8 0 8 NE: W. Welker 7 72 0 26 K. Faulk 4 50 0 22 R. Moss 2 22 0 14 D. Thomas 1 14 0 14 S. Morris 2 7 0 4 SD: Jackson 3 74 0 60 C. Davis 3 43 0 20 D. Sproles 2 39 0 25 Chambers 1 27 1 27 A. Gates 2 25 1 19 Tomlinson 3 20 0 9 M. Tolbert 4 17 1 6 Manum... 1 5 0 5 ARZ: S. Breaston 9 122 0 37 L. Fitzgerald 8 122 0 32 A. Boldin 10 119 1 26 J. Urban 5 50 1 14 E. James 5 37 0 16 B. Patrick 1 11 0 11 T. Smith 1 6 0 6 Hightower 1 5 0 5 CIN: Johnson 5 57 0 16 T. Housh 7 49 0 13 B. Utecht 4 34 0 12 C. Henry 1 13 0 13 C. Perry 2 2 0 2 When we look at the stats and watch the games with our own eyes and see Jenkins and the Front 7 doing it's job against the run it looks like this: MIA - 17 rushes for 49 yards, 2.9 ypc, 1 TFL for 1 yd, 2 FD NE - 32 rushes for 104, 3.2 ypc, 5 TFL for 9 yards, 6 FD SD - 35 rushes, 107, 3.1 ypc., 0 TFL, 8 FD ARZ - 15 rushes, 42 yards, 2.8 ypc., 0 TFL, 5 FD CIN - 21 rushes for 43 yards, 2.0 ypc,. 3 TFL for 3 yards, 3 FD In order to make that "great leap" into elite status, we have to find a way to control opposing teams passing on us. Some of the other teams that have as good or better run defenses have managed to leverage their aggression or pressure into passing downs where sacks are unsuccessful. They are able to stymie drives by being more successful on 3rd down. Our continual problem is giving up the unclutch play on 3rd down to extend the drive. A series of such 3rd down conversions is a clock-eating, field-position changing, potential scoring drive. We have to find a way to stop offenses from stringing sets of downs out into long drives. But... IMO, this might continue to be a big problem for us. Against good offenses we've been exposed. And not so good ones, we have been inconsistent at best. This season we will have to fight in this area, and try to force more ints from pressures. What we really need to look out for are players in the future. Specifically we need to look at ILBs that can cover as well as hit, and we need to look at a Safety that can cover and hit. Kerry Rhodes hasn't really been a dominant force for us yet this year in the secondary. Perhaps he is overextended because our other S has been a liability? Maybe we over-rate him. The bottom line is "no impact". While our offense needs work in the upcoming draft, these two areas on the defense will have to be addressed. It's that bad. Finally, and probably not as important as pure personnel (S and ILB) Sutton and Mangini have to abandon the concept of "pulling back". Abandon the prevent defense. It doesn't work, and never will. Abandon the "give them the underneath stuff, so they can march down the field and wear our defense down" approach. It sucks.
You're overthinking the issue. Our secondary doesn't have the instinct, speed, or talent to cover opponents' receivers. You don't need to crunch numbers to figure that out. Rhodes and Revis can't dominate the field for the same reason two columns can't hold up a roof.. and you can't blame them for that.
I think our pass defense would seem a lot better if teams could run better on us. Our run defense is so good that it forces teams to play 3 or 4 receiver sets and throw the ball a lot more to the tight end. And although Revis is amazing, Lowery is pretty good for a rookie, every other CB is pretty bad and that's what is hurting us. I don't know how many passes Arizona's Steve Breaston caught or San Diego's Buster Davis not to mention Miami's tight ends.
I didn't read any posts in this thread really but my quick opinion is we have Revis and Rhodes (top 5 players at their position) and Lowery will get better. (and develop into a very solid #2) That means we only have one weak spot in our secondary. That's pretty good imo. As far as linebackers. None of them are on the decline but a few of them are on the climb up and have potential. Just give this team time and I think we will be a top 10 team in every major catagory.
Blame Sutton and Drew Coleman... What happened to Coleman, he's taken a huge step back this season. When does his contract run out?
I wasn't arguing your point, just saying that all of the problems you mentioned originate from our secondary's inability to cover. Opponents get lots of short-yardage drops b/c we give them too much space. We can't catch up to their receivers or make a play on the ball until after they slow down to make a catch, which gives them high completion ratios. This all seems like common sense to me. The prevent D is another issue entirely, but it hasn't lost us a game yet. .. That's all that really matters, and Rhodes is better than "fair".
Coleman, Lowery and Smith aren't exactly top notch, and certainly contribute to the poor pass D. Before anyone flips a lid, I'm not hating on Lowery - I expect him to get better as he's a rook, but he is part of the problem right now IMO. Another part of the problem is our ineffective blitz packages when we send 5 or more people. No secondary is going to be successful when 6 or fewer guys are in coverage and the pressure doesn't get there. Teams are adjusting there blocking to pickup our blitzes giving the QB enough time to find the open man. Don't get me wrong, I'm not complaining about our pass rush. It's the best I've seen maybe ever from the Jets (since '86). A lot of our pressure and sacks are coming from 3 and 4 man rushes. When we send extra guys for whatever reason it seems to get picked up a lot. I think Sutton needs to be more creative in disguising these all out blitzes.
It is kind of baffling. The Jets are getting a lot of pressure from rushing 4 guys, and still can't hold on 3rd and long. It seems to me a part of it is the tackling or just giving to much space underneath. Smith, and Coleman have been inadequate. IMO Rhodes hasn't been playing up to his potential so far this season. He did the same thing last year, and then came on the second half of the season and played like an All Pro. A lot has to do with the slot receiver, and TE's catching stuff underneath, and Turing them into long gainers. Hopefully Miller can help with the nickel spot when he gets healthy. Hopefully. Lowery had two very good games the first two weeks, then was successfully picked on. He is going to be a good player, but at times his lack of speed shows, and he is a rookie. He's not playing badly, but is having growing pains
Broadway, wasn't it you that when the Cards put up 21 points in the 3rd period, and everyone was howling about the prevent defense, that analyzed every passing play in the game, and proved that the Jets actually blitzed more in the 3rd period, then they did in the rest of the game? That is very interesting. The only thing that I can think of that would cause that is the Jets aren't to effective in man to man, or they are dropping in a deep zone when they blitz, leaving a bunch of open area underneath. It would be an interesting study to see how many men they are sending on third, and to see what the results are when the blitz, and when they only send 3 or 4. Way to much work though. Would have to watch every third down play, in every game.
Yeah I did that. If I still had all the games available on my DVR I'd do it. It wouldn't take much time to do every 3rd down. I think I only have the last 2 weeks still on the DVR because it decided to delete the older ones. Maybe there are torrents of the first few games available somewhere ...
You can cite all the numbers you want, but I will maintain that the corners are not the problem. The clear issue, which a couple people have already brought up, is the space every team gets underneath. For all the good that the LBs are doing for the pass rush, they cannot cover the flat to save their own lives. That's why tight ends and third receivers are positively destroying the Jets game after game. Revis and Lowery have been taking on the big names and containing them. However, Harris, Pace, Barton, Thomas, and Gholston need to wake up when it comes to pass coverage. Additionally, I have no idea how Coleman is still getting PT over Poteat. Poteat isn't the Second Coming, but he's a wily vet who can come up big every now and then. Coleman is a legit liability out there.
Two words. Drew Coleman. Teams know for a fact, that when they need a 1st down on a 3rd and <6, they will throw his way for a high conversion %. I don't expect it to stop anytime soon, unless Miller miraculously comes in and becomes that nickle corner.
1) anytime you have a run defense like ours people will literally put more time in developing their passing attack coming into a game. (the argument to this would be explain why its looked bad in only 5 games when our run defense just started being impressive) 2)drew coleman, and the FS rotation allow plays at crucial points. plus the occasional hiccup from a very exceptional rookie in lowrey. 3)the key to this defense would be, as Abyzmul mentioned earlier, finding a legit good (not just suitable) safety opposite rhodes. our LB'ers are built for run defense and pass rush, not coverage. if we had a legit Cover FS, Rhodes wouldnt have to feel as if hes playing centerfield and can focus on shutting down his side and making more plays in the run game. 4)acquire another corner, im satisfied with revis and lowery starting, but acquiring more depth at CB is a must. coleman looks like a dimeback at best otherwise he wouldnt be mentioned for busting so many plays. barrett is now a safety. miller's health is always in question and he may be kept only for ST at this point. teams see revis and get scared, so they attack the middle of the field or intermediate plays over the nickel/sidelines opposite Revis. 5)sometimes this is the result of the more agressive playcalling weve been wanting. we have more sacks and a better run defense but on those few plays where the blitz pickup is right by the opposing OL or the middle is left open due to a blitz package we get exposed. it happens to everyone, too much to us on 3rd down. but it happens.
The LB's are a good point. The Jets beefed up the size of the front 7, and it has been very successful. They have also sacrificed some speed in their LB's. Still doesn't explain why they are giving up big chunks on 3rd and 10. A lot of the LB's are on the bench for nickel and dime backs. Without going back and looking at a lot of games, I speculate that it is mostly Coleman and Smith. plus at this point Rhodes hasn't been playing up to his potential. I hope that will change soon. Maybe Miller and Elam can change that. Hope so. This defense looks very good, but this 3rd and long thing is a giant wart.
Our CBs are a rookie and a second-year player. The fact that we are even mediocre says a lot. If Revis and Lowery stay healthy, the unit can only get better.
