Pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue is on the market, currently under the franchise tag. What should it actually cost to acquire him? Fortunately, we have 3 examples from just last year to give us some insight. Keep in mind, Clark and Ford were traded before the 2019 draft, while Clowney was traded after. 1. Jadeveon Clowney Trade Package -Texans Get —Barkevious Mingo —Jacob Martin —2020 3rd Round Pick -Seahawks Get —Jadeveon Clowney -Long Term Contract Signed —None 2. Dee Ford Trade Package -Chiefs Get —2020 2nd Round Pick -49ers Get —Dee Ford -Long Term Contract Signed —5 Years $87mm ($17.4mm/Year) 3. Frank Clark Trade Package -Seahawks Get —2019 1st Round Pick —2019 3rd Round Pick —2020 2nd Round Pick -Chiefs Get —Frank Clark —2019 3rd Round Pick -Long Term Contract Signed —5 Years $105.5mm ($21.1mm/Year) What is interesting here is that there is a large variance in compensation for the players. Clark had high value, while Ford and Clowney commanded significantly less. It seems that players that teams wish to get rid of come at a MAJOR discount, more than I really thought before looking into this. What is also interesting is how often teams wish to trade star players outside of their own conference. Examples of this are: -Jadeveon Clowney -Dee Ford -Frank Clark -Jalen Ramsey -Stefan Diggs -DeAndre Hopkins -Khalil Mack -Amari Cooper -Marcus Peters -Leonard Williams -Odell Beckham Jr -DeForest Buckner Examples of same conference trades: -Darius Slay -Minkah Fitzpatrick -Antonio Brown -Laremy Tunsil This being said, what could the Jets get Yannick Ngakoue for? Considering Ngakoue has made it very clear he wants to get out of Jacksonville, that lowers his trade value a bit. Lets look at some of his stats vs our guys from last year. 1. Jadeveon Clowney -5 Years -29 Sacks -67 QB Hits -205 Tackles -64 Tackles for Loss -4 Forced Fumbles 2. Dee Ford -5 Years -30.5 Sacks -69 QB Hits -137 Tackles -36 Tackles for Loss -9 Forced Fumbles 3. Frank Clark -4 Years -35 Sacks -72 QB Hits -136 Tackles -35 Tackles for Loss -8 Forced Fumbles 4. Yannick Ngakoue -4 Years -37.5 Sacks -85 QB Hits -122 Tackles -42 Tackles for Loss -14 Forced Fumbles. If you look at the stats, Ngakoue put up the best numbers. It should be stated that the Jaguars have had a good-to-great front seven over most of his tenure from 2016-2019. -Calais Campbell (2017-2019) -Marcell Dareus (2017-2019) -Malik Jackson (2016-2018) -Myles Jack (2016-2019) -Telvin Smith (2016-2018) -Paul Posluszny (2016-2017) -Josh Allen (2019) Along with a quality secondary. -AJ Bouye (2017-2019) -Jalen Ramsey (2016-2018) No other player we are talking about has had that kind of team around him, although closest would be Frank Clark who was with the Seahawks from 2015-2018 while their defense was still quite good, but slightly less dominant than the earlier 2010’s. With stats like this, Ngakoue should cost more than even the Frank Clark trade package. The question is how much does Ngakoue wanting out influence his trade value? Probably not that much is the unfortunate answer. If the Jets did trade for him after the 2020 draft, likely they would have to surrender a 2021 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick at minimum. They could try to include a player to reduce the draft capital but in reality Jacksonville is tearing down the team, so a veteran may not really interest them. Ngakoue is legit, but between the draft capital and the contract he will need, is now when the Jets want to give up all of that?
We need to find our stud pass rusher in the draft this year or next. Possible mid round prospects for 2020 are Alton Robinson, Curtis Weaver, Khalid Kareem, and Kenny Willekes. As for 2021.... https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2021-nfl-draft-miamis-rousseau-leads-top-5-edge-rushers/ https://dynastydraftroom.com/scouting/2021-2/edge/
Thanks for the breakdown Maximus! In an ideal world, the Jets would get a high enough pick next year to grab the best pass rusher available. From the link posted by HerndonFan, Rousseau seems like he'll be that "can't miss" prospect. But there's a couple of problems with this approach. First, the Jets have only had the #1 pick one time in their history, almost 25 years ago. It will likely require having the #1 pick to get whoever the best pass rusher is. While there is a chance they might have the worst record next year, I don't think they will, even with Gase as HC and facing the second toughest schedule. Based on their history, they'll probably win 5-7 games, just enough to fall out of the top 5 pick range, and of course not enough to make the playoffs - purgatory. So, if that happens, they'll have to figure out a way to trade up which will cost valuable draft picks and/or players. That brings me to the conclusion that it might make the most sense to trade for Ngakoue. I would say that he's worth our #1 and a #3 next year, or possibly our #1 and Q. Williams (my preference). While giving up a #1 pick plus these other assets is steep, in return you get a proven premier pass rusher. As we can see with Clowney who was touted as "can't miss" coming out, while he's been very good, he isn't quite the pass rusher everyone predicted, so like all draft picks there is no such thing as "can't miss". Securing Ngakoue who IS proven, is easily worth giving up that #1. I also assume that by next year we'll have greatly improved our other major holes - OL, WR - and that Darnold proves he is the FQB. If Darnold fails to do that however, then the whole landscape shifts and we won't be looking for a pass rusher but a FQB. I suspect that Ngakoue will be traded before the draft however. If I were Douglas I wouldn't give up our #1 this year and that's what it will take (as part of any package) to get him I'm sure. When all is said and done, I'd much prefer investing in Ngakoue than Clowney.
I’ve seen a lot of people throwing around the idea of moving on from Quinnen Williams. I have to say I would be pretty against this. The kid has been in the league for one year, and it seems crazy to me to just toss aside a talent like him. I have the feeling a lot of posters are sour on him mostly because of the DT draft picks in the past, but let’s at least let him play beyond his rookie season. I’m not saying he was so great last year, but it does seem hasty to not give him a legitimate chance to play. On another note, with Sunshine coming out of Clemson most likely next year, it probably won’t be a 1st overall pick used on a pass rusher.
I don't think I'm being too hasty to give up on QW. I think he can be a solid, if not above average, player for the Jets. But would he make the impact of someone like Ngakoue? I seriously doubt it. So if that's part of the price required to get a great, proven pass rusher, I'd do it. And I'd prefer to give up QW than a #3 pick because a DT can be found to replace him, while #3 pick could be used to improve the OL, CB, or offense. And while next year's #1 might not be for a pass rusher, certainly it would require being in the top 5 pick range, and I don't think the Jets will be there without again using assets to trade up.
I posted in the other thread but the 2021 1st is absolutely on the table and a no brainer IMO. You won’t find a player better than him in the middle of the draft and i don’t expect us to be picking top 5 next year. He immediately fills a huge void for us and will be a huge contributor this year. Yannick is the type of player that makes everyone else Around him better. You’ll have a stud at each level of the defense if you added him this year. yannick on the line. Mosley in the middle and Adams in the backend. That’s a recipe for success on D.
Good response. I pretty much am in total agreement, especially with trading both next year's #1 and Q. Williams. Hopefully, that is something that Jacksonville would seriously consider. Maybe it could even happen prior to this year's draft. I doubt that Jacksonville will get a better offer than that, although Douglas may not want to part with either next year's #1 or Q. Williams, and in fact, I doubt that Douglas will make that or any trade for Ngakoue. To me, that just seems out of character for him. If he did make that trade for Ngakoue and then we wind up drafting in the top 5, it will hurt a little, but I don't think that anyone would care, except maybe Douglas and some in the media who look for reasons to criticize. I don't think the Jets would have to have the #1 pick next year to get Rousseau or whomever the top edge rusher is. Unless Trevor Lawrence has a bad season for Clemson or they don't have college football this year, I think he will be the #1 pick. If not, then Justin Fields could be. So at best the top edge rusher (Rousseau or whomever), could be the 3rd pick. LT Penei Sewell is likely to be a top 5 pick and could go before Rousseau as well. In fact, according to 247sports.com's rankings for next year, if accurate, Rousseau would be the #6 pick behind those three and then after WR Ja'Marr Chase and CB Patrick Surtain II. https://247sports.com/LongFormArtic...in-Fields-JaMarr-Chase-144393305/#144393305_5 If WR Jaylon Waddle enters the draft, he could also go before Rousseau. So we don't necessarily have to have one of the top two picks, and even with the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL this year, I don't think we'll even have a top 10 draft pick unless Gase is as bad as some of you think. If Douglas does as good a job in the draft as I think he will, I think we're likely to win 7-8 games unless Williams' D takes a step backwards or Sam doesn't stay healthy or develop, and will be drafting in the 10-15 area again. If Douglas adds a quality OT and a couple of good WR prospects, then I think it would be hard to not win 7-8 games. If Gase is as bad as some of you think, and the Jets crash and burn this season after Douglas adds a lot of good talent, it could be the best of all worlds. It could be what the Johnsons need to realize that they made a mistake in hiring Gase and allow Douglas to hire the next HC. It could also give us the great draft position to either grab one of those players or trade down and get the bevy of picks. I hope that doesn't happen, however. Now that we have Douglas, I truly believe that the team is on an upward trajectory. The jury's still out on Gase as far as I'm concerned, but it would be better if he works out rather than having to start over. If we start over, we might lose Williams as DC and some of the other good coaches we have.
I never wanted Q. Williams in the first place. It definitely has to do with all the DTs that Mac took. I'm sure that Williams will be a good player in the NFL and he seems like a great kid, so it's nothing personal against him. Similarly, it has nothing to do with how he played or didn't play this past season. In making a trade, one has to give up value to get value. Ngakoue is a proven stud edge rusher. Aside from Sam and maybe Jamal Adams, I'd include any player on the roster along with our #1 pick next year to get Ngakoue. Ngakoue's that good, and if we could get him for only one draft pick, it would be criminal not to make that trade. Again, it has nothing to do with Q. Williams, and everything to do with Ngakoue and filling that huge edge rusher hole we've had for around 15-20 years.
One thing to consider here is that adding Ngakoue could allow us to do more 4-3. Ngakoue, QW, Folo, mclendon, Jenkins, Henry Anderson. Will Phillps and others in rotation as well. We could seamless rotate between 3-4 and 4-3. And in 4-3 QW will be playing more natural and he will improve.
I agree that it's unlikely that Douglas would do a trade like this that requires giving up this level of assets. If that's true, I'm a little troubled by that level of conservative thinking, but again, he's got great credentials so I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt. But the opportunity to get a player of Ngakoue's caliber is very rare, and I would hate it if Joe didn't do his best to get him.
No. But I don't give up on 1st rounders that quick. I think he can develop into a great player. Not saying he will be Donald but he could be the best draft since. We just have to give him time and put him in the position to succeed. I would give a 2nd and a 5th for Ngakoue. Maybe a 4th. But right now we aren't a pass rusher away from being a good team. We have questions at both tackles, both outside receivers, both outside corners, and one edge spot. Not to mention needing depth everywhere. I wouldn't give up QW or a 1st for a good pass rusher... especially when that just creates another questionable spot in the middle. Folo, Mclendon, etc are ok but that's all they will ever be. QW could end up being great.
Well aside from disagreeing on whether to trade QW - we'll have to agree to disagree - I also disagree on what value you place on a premier pass rusher. Frankly, aside from QB, a premier pass rusher is probably the most impactive player on a team, certainly on the defensive side of the ball. Given that, a first round pick is certainly a fair compensation. Certainly if they accepted less, that'd be great, but I doubt Jacksonville would even consider any deal that doesn't include at least next year's first as part of the deal.
It has nothing to do with "giving up" on Q. Williams, and everything to do with adding a great pass rusher. DTs don't have to be great. They just have to be solid vs the run. If they can add some pass rush, it's bonus. There are very good DTs in the draft every year. Williams could easily be replaced. If we drafted an elite edge rusher next season it would likely cost us our #1 pick. You mention all the holes, yet you're willing to give up two picks that could be used to fill holes, instead of just one pick. Ngakloue isn't just a good pass rusher. He's a very good, if not great pass rusher.
I think you misunderstand a bit. See without Darnold is won't matter if we had the second coming of Lawrence Taylor. If we don't protect him and give him weapons he will not develop. Without a line he has a high chance of becoming the next Andrew Luck. We have to build around him. That's what this year needs to be. That said if it was next year, and we had a good line and wr group, I would absolutely trade our 1st and more for Ngakoue. I don't under value pass rush. I just know I today's nfl you have no chance without a FQB. Sam can't be there without things around him. I like Ngakoue and was all for bringing him in if he hit FA. He is 200% better than Clowney. But we have to fix Darnold. And I don't think committing to defense before we fix the offense it the way to go. In our position I wouldn't give up more than a 2nd and 4th. If we had our offensive issues fixed I would absolutely give up more.
The bolded is where your logic goes off the rails. Neither Colorado, nor I were talking about giving up ANY picks in this year's draft. We're all about protecting Sam and surrounding him with quality WRs. So your response is a classic strawman response. What we're advocating is using next year's first round pick and Q. Williams. Neither would hinder us in protecting Sam or surrounding him with receiving talent. We would be taking care of that in this year's draft, next year's FA, and in rounds 2-7 next year. In your scenario, you would be the one crippling the Jets' draft this year giving up two prime picks that we could be using to upgrade the OL and WR corps. As we said, we doubt that Douglas would even consider such a move, but if he did, he might wait until after the draft this year just to make sure he got his future LT and WR talent for Sam. Then, if Ngakoue is still available, hasn't signed his tender or been traded already. We would wind up with one of the top 5 OT prospects (I know you don't like Wills, but let's say it's one of those not named Wills.) in the 1st round, and excellent WRs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds (say Chase Claypool , Bryan Edwards, or Michael Pittman Jr. and Tyler Johnson/Antonio Gandy-Golden), AND Ngakoue. If Douglas focuses on offense in this draft as I and many of us think he will, then the 1st round pick next year would probably have been used to draft an edge rusher anyway, and we might have even had to trade up if Douglas really wanted a particular edge rusher. Including Q. Williams in the trade wouldn't hurt Sam or the offense at all and would save us precious draft capital.
Yeah. What can I say. Fuck Jets beat writers. They are trash. This piece from Maximus is the best written article I read all offseason.
