The NFL Contract Marketplace and the Draft

Yeah yeah It's an essay... Read if you want, I know it's long.

The NFL Marketplace is an interesting concept built around genuine market value, but also perceptions created by the illusions that are NFL contracts. When building a team, a front office can usually focus on a few positions in any one offseason.

The Jets have so little on their roster at this point that essentially every position is worth investigating, so how do you go from worst in the game to a Super Bowl contender? How do you take every position on a roster and improve it in unison? Let's look at finish line, and work backwards from there.

The first step is to take a look at the marketplace created by the NFL teams, because that is going to tell you an encyclopedia's worth of information about where to strike early and often.

This is a list of the top 5 annual values of the contracts at each position. NOT Cap hits. I did not include franchise tag players since those numbers are not applicable to the actual marketplace.

1. QB: $37.3 mm --17.3%
2. ED: $23.46 mm --10.9%
3. WR: $20.03 mm --9.3%
4. IDL: $19.62 mm --9.1%
5. CB: 18.04 mm --8.4%
6. OT: $17.8 mm --8.3%
7. LB: $15.6 mm --7.2%
8. S: $14.29 mm --6.6%
9. RB: $13.97 mm --6.5%
10. OG: $12.97 mm --6%
11. C: $11.35 mm --5.3%
12. TE: $10.84 mm --5%

Starting from the top, QB makes up 17.3% of the total. It is clearly the most valuable position in the NFL, and so far ahead of its following positions that it must be prioritized even at the expense of the others. There is a larger difference in QB and the 2nd most compensated position (6.4% difference) than between the 2nd and 12th most compensated (5.9% difference). The premium placed on QB tells us one thing. If you are not 110% sure Sam Darnold is a championship caliber QB, and you have the opportunity to draft another in the top 5, you do it. It has to be the starting point, and anything else is treading water. The answer to this position is simply not available in Free Agency.

Once you pass this point, it becomes only slightly less obvious. Edge Defenders impact a play at a higher rate than any other non QB. They cause sacks, fumbles, interceptions, incompletions, and tackles for loss, along with effecting a QB's decision making. Obtaining a high end player at this position without drafting one is highly expensive, if even possible. Taking advantage of the rookie wage scale here is a necessity, and prioritizing the position with a high draft pick is key. After QB is addressed, this has to be priority #2.

Following that, IDL and WR are essentially equitable with only 0.2% difference between them. IDL have a similar function to ED however elite players at this position will have splash plays at a lower rate than elite players at ED. IDL who rush the passer are the obvious players who reach this type of financial compensation. WR's make the biggest plays, and the elite among them stretch the field and alter defensive responsibilities and create favorable matchups for those around them. These positions should make up priority #3+4.

Behind them, CB and OT live in a similar space with only 0.1% difference between them. Players at these positions are highly impactful when elite, however some of their efficacy can be reduced through altering matchups by the opposing teams. While that in itself carries value, their markets indicate a lesser priority by NFL front offices. I believe that this is because a large part of their overall success depends on the success of the greater units they are a part of, even when the players themselves are elite. The market shows that these would be priorities #5+6.

As we drop another full percentage point, we begin to arrive at positions where the disparity between the top salaries and the salaries of a 1st round pick becomes less obvious. For example 1st round LB Kenneth Murray has an annual value of 20.8% of the top 5 LB average, while K'Lavon Chaisson has an annual value of 14.2% of the top 5 ED average. In essence you're getting a better rate for a more impactful player. It's not that players in these positions can't be impactful, however it's a better combination to get a great ED cheap and pay top dollar for a LB than the other way around. I am using them as an example because they were only selected a couple of picks apart.

K Murray + Top 5 ED = $26.7 mm
K Chaisson + Top 5 LB = $18.94 mm

The Jets cannot alter their franchise all the way with 1 offseason, but where do they start? Darnold has shown a lot of promise, but at this point I would say the only way to avoid drafting a QB high is if Darnold rallies and as some guys return from injury, he wins enough games that the Jets are picking closer to 10th than to 1st. With that looking less likely by the week, I would look beyond that position and come to grips with the fact that the Jets very first pick in 2021 will be a QB. That means that the Jets should be prioritizing ED with their second 1st round pick. If it seems as though ED is a bit of a reach when the Jets pick comes up, a trade-back should be the primary goal. The likelihood that an obvious slam dunk is available late in the first round is unlikely and makes a trade-back easier to swallow. If neither option is doable for some reason, we'll talk about the next options in a moment.

At this point, knowing what the primary draft targets are, we can start to consider the Free Agent market. The Jets are looking at about $60 mm in effective cap space for 2021 before cuts, and at this point I see 2 players who are obvious cuts withe significant cap gains and that would be L. Bell and H. Anderson which would add around $17.7 mm to that total.

When looking at the Jets core roster pieces, there are very few. Early returns on M. Becton as LT are very promising. Q. Williams at IDL has shown me enough to be hopeful that with a coaching change he can be an impactful player and clean up penalties. The only other players who have core potential would be D. Mims at WR and A. Davis at S. The 2nd round WR is almost an afterthought at this point, and while he is certainly not going to waltz in and save a season after missing most of camp, he may well show lots of flashes over the next 12 games. Darnold will certainly be looking to him as a chance to change the narrative. Davis is raw still but the book is not closed on him after a couple of games.

With this in mind, I can comfortably say that the Jets need to make WR their Free Agent priority #1. No matter how good Mims looks, he will be extremely inexpensive for at least a few year remaining. A high quality veteran will be available somewhere, and the Jets need to push hard to bring in their preferred guy.

The top prizes of FA WR's would be the following:
-T. Hilton
-K. Golladay
-A. Robinson
-C. Godwin
While the general thought is that these guys won't be available, if one makes it out the Jets need to strike hard and land them. A contract for any of these players would cost around $20-21 mm per year
Following this preferred tier, you can also look at:
-J. Smith-Schuster
-W. Fuller
-S. Watkins
-A. Green
-M. Jones
-C. Davis
-C. Samuel
Whoever is the best available of this lot, get them. Depending on who, you would be looking at closer to $16 mm per year.
There is also the possibility of a trade. The Jets should retain their 1st round picks, but if the Bucs can't afford Evans and Godwin, try and obtain Evans for a 2nd. There are possibilities out there.
If Mims looks like the real deal, pair the FA with Mims. If he looks like he doesn't belong, you pair the FA with a new rookie.

At this point the Jets additions would ideally look like:
-1st Round QB
-1st Round ED
-Major FA WR

That accounts for 3 of the top 6 positional priorities. M. Becton and Q. Williams account for 2 more. The final priority is CB, and there is a strong possibility that this one has to wait a year. It's the price of selecting another 1st round QB, which is not something you can turn down in the situation. The FA class is not strong, and it rarely is with true quality CB's. The best bet will likely be a P. Peterson or X. Rhodes type on a 1 year deal as a holdover. Finding a CB at the very top of the second round is not out of the realm of possibility but things would have to fall perfectly. There is the option to trade up and select one, but forfeiting picks with a barren roster is not ideal.

As the second primary FA move, I would hope that Joe Thuney came loose from NE. So far I am not wildly disappointed in G. Fant at RT, and the Jets are committed to C. McGovern for another year at C. I want a top level G to be addressed in FA. There is no time constraint on releasing A. Lewis or G. Van Roten, which means the Jets can sign a good G and let Lewis, Van Roten, and C. Clark compete for the final position. If Lewis doesn't win he can be released to save $6.2 mm.

Once you reach the second round and beyond, the world is the Jets oyster. They can select whoever they think is the best player, relatively guilt free. CB, WR, RB, TE, OL, LB....
After the first round they have 8 more picks to play with so continuing to build depth is key.

FA investment at OL and WR matters particularly because if a rookie is going to come in, it is paramount that his development not be as screwed up as Darnold's. I'm not sure splurging on Top FA ED's is the wise move in building the roster.

Prognosticating for 2022 is too far away to me, but having high picks never hurt anyone.

Ultimately the only thing that changes if Darnold changes my mind is drafting an ED instead of QB with the Jets first pick, and then targeting CB with the second 1st rounder. Largely the strategy remains the same.

 

Who created it? Buyers and sellers, and the CBA. Who determines value? Same answer. It’s not me, this is numerical data I gathered from the internet

 

I took the average of the top 5 annual salaries at each position. As a matter of fact, the OT market should be even lower if not for the ludicrous contract the Texans gave Tunsil which was $4 million per year over the market leader. Crazy.

 

This is true to some degree, however there are a few caveats I would include.

1. You have to spend at least 90% of the cap over a 3 year cycle. The Jets have no homegrown players up for contracts besides Sam Darnold, and there are big questions there. It may be better to decline his option and use the franchise tag if absolutely necessary. The jets have more money to spend than they need.

2. Either Darnold or a rookie QB will need weapons or risk having his development stifled. The draft is no guarantee so Free Agency is the route I'd take in this situation, since a trade would require draft pick compensation.

3. I suppose a good equation would be this: You have a 16 year old driver (your son) and yes its more fiscally responsible to buy him a used car. However, you can afford a new safe model, and it gives you significant peace of mind knowing he has a safe car that won't break down. Is it for sure the right move? There are pro's and cons, but in this instance it makes sense to me.