This is a great story highlighting the major whiffs the Kipers and McShays of the NFL world spew the months and days leading up to the draft. I love how McShady totally destroyed the Jets for choosing Sheldon Richardson ( The reigning Def. Rookie of the Year!!!) saying he was a mismatch for the Jets schematically and was a head scratcher pick. I want to get paid the $$$ these douchebags are getting for basically going on a gut feeling. Hell my dog can do that. http://awfulannouncing.com/2014/10-biggest-draft-expert-misses-in-nfl-history.html 10 BIGGEST DRAFT EXPERT MISSES IN NFL HISTORY Posted by Brad Gagnon on Apr 22, 2014 09:33 The NFL draft takes place in just two weeks, which means we’re about to get some severely exaggerated scouting reports from so-called experts in the field of draftology. In light of that, we figured we’d take a fond look back at some of the most epic scouting report blunders from the pundits of the draft world. To be clear, we aren’t really intending to rip on these poor souls in charge of prognosticating the unprognosticatable. The draft is a bloody crapshoot, and we all know it. But there’s a market for draft experts simply because fans have an insatiable appetite for forecasts, no matter how unreliable they are. SUBSCRIBE TO THE AA NEWSLETTER Here are 10 projections we hope you didn’t take to the bank. 1. Mel Kiper compares JaMarcus Russell to John Elway “JaMarcus Russell is going to immediately energize that Raider nation,” said Kiper after Russell was taken first overall in 2007. “That fanbase, that football team, on the practice field, in that locker room.” How do you get past quotes like those? 2. Todd McShay says Blaine Gabbert is better than Cam Newton Gabbert is now a backup in San Francisco after three horrendous seasons in Jacksonville, while Newton is coming off a breakout season in which he led the Panthers to the playoffs. 3. Mel Kiper says Ricky Stanzi will have the best career among the quarterbacks in the 2011 class Unfortunately, no video of this one. But Kiper apparently made that statement on an ESPN draft recap show, shortly after Stanzi was taken in the fifth round by the Chiefs. The 2011 class wasn’t exactly superb, but it did produce Cam Newton and Andy Dalton. Three years into his career, Stanzi is a backup in Jacksonville. He’s yet to throw a pass in an NFL game, but he’s still a great American. 4. Mike Mayock rates Mark Sanchez ahead of Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford was the #1 pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, but NFLN expert Mike Mayockplaced him behind Mark Sanchez on his big board. Why? Mayock called Sanchez the safest pick because he had a higher floor than Stafford: I think the safest pick is Sanchez. Sanchez has a very good arm that I would compare his arm to Matt Ryan. And he’s got the best accuracy and footwork amongst the three. I’ve been very positive on all three of them and I like all three of them. But I wouldn’t bang the table for any of them like I did for Matt Ryan last year. Matt Ryan was my number one guy on the board all year long. But amongst those three Freeman reminds me of Joe Flacco both on and off the field. And I think if I had to pull the trigger in the top 10 pick with a quarterback I would take Sanchez because I would feel like his floor is higher than the other guys. Five years later, that high floor has taken Sanchez to being a backup with the Eagles after a boom or bust tenure in New York while Stafford has thrown for at least 4,600 yards each of the last 3 seasons. 5. Mel Kiper predicts Mike Williams will be a Hall of Famer Kiper apparently told Merril Hoge he’d see him at Williams’ Hall of Fame induction ceremony after ranking the USC wide receiver No. 1 among all players in the 2005 draft. He’d be out of the league three years later, returning only for a short stint as an afterthought with the Seahawks in 2010. Years later, Kiper admitted that was a big whiff: Williams was one of my worst evaluations ever. His career is not over, but he’s with his third team (Tennessee Titans) in as many seasons. Someone has to light a fire under Williams, who has been a huge underachiever in the NFL. I thought he was the best player in the 2005 draft, but he wouldn’t justify a fifth-round pick in this year’s draft. 6. Mel Kiper rips the Colts for drafting Marshall Faulk, not drafting Heath Shuler or Trent Dilfer Technically, he ripped Indy for trading for a second pick in the top five and still refusing to take a quarterback like Shuler or Dilfer. But you get the idea. “That’s why the Colts are picking second every year in the draft,” he said, “not battling for the Super Bowl.” Turns out the Colts knew what they were doing. 7. Mel Kiper says Wes Welker isn’t worth a second-round pick “I don’t care how much you like his work ethic,” Kiper apparently added, “he has done nothing to show a value that high.” Since 2007, Welker has caught more passes than anyone else in football… by a wide margin. 8. Todd McShay calls the Jets picking Sheldon Richardson “a real head-scratcher.” Sports Center Tweet SportsCenter ✔ @SportsCenter Follow "The Sheldon Richardson pick is a real head-scratcher. It's a complete non-scheme fit & Jets have so many other needs" - @McShay13 #NYJPick 9:53 PM - 25 Apr 2013 It’s early, but it’s McShay’s analysis that looks like the head-scratcher. Richardson, of course, went on to win the 2013 defensive rookie of the year award. 9. Mel Kiper ranks Jimmy Clausen as the fourth-best player in the 2010 draft “I had him as the fourth-best player,” Kiper said in a post-draft conference call, after Clausen plummeted into Round 2. “That’s my rating. That’s my opinion, and I’ll stand by it. We’ll see what happens three years from now.” Well, it’s been four years, actually, and Clausen appears to be done in the NFL. 10. Nolan Nawrocki rips Cam Newton’s character and calls him a bust The Pro Football Weekly expert has become the face of particularly harsh draft projections, especially when it comes to quarterbacks in recent years. Some might even call him a troll scout. Nawrocki’s most infamous scouting assessment came when talking about future Panthers QB Cam Newton, who he said would destroy a locker room: Can provide an initial spark, but will quickly be dissected and contained by NFL defensive coordinators, struggle to sustain success and will not prove worthy of an early investment. An overhyped, high-risk, high-reward selection with a glaring bust factor, Newton is sure to be drafted more highly than he should and could foreclose a risk-taking GM’s job and taint a locker room. Newton is already a two-time Pro Bowler with a list of NFL records to his name at the start of his career. Not bad for someone with a glaring bust factor.
I love seeing stuff like this... we all know the draft is a crap shoot but us as fans seem to sometimes have a better gauge on college prospects than those that get paid to do so. I'll never forget how much Sheldon got ripped when he was picked.
Yet there is a child in another thread claiming that "reputable sources" had player "x" graded as a first round talent or "the best xx in his draft class" because some draft guru or blogger so guy selling a draft guide said so. Too funny. As much access as guys like Kiper and McShay and Mayock have, it doesn't even scratch the surface of what real NFL teams have. They aren't in the meetings, they don't have scouting staffs assigned to the players, they don't have the private eyes doing background searches, they don't watch 1/10th the film real scouts watch, they aren't on the field for pro days and the combine, they don't get the same info from high school and college coaches that real NFL scouts get, they just don't. At the end of the day, they are extremely educated football fans making guesses like you and me with about 1000x the information we have but 1/1000th times the amount of information the real NFL draft guys have. They're just guessing. _
Nawrocki is the dude who also ripped Geno last year. Here is the 2014 list: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap20...ads-most-controversial-prospects-in-nfl-draft Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel Suspect intangibles -- not a leader by example or known to inspire by his words. Carries a sense of entitlement and prima-donna arrogance seeking out the bright lights of Hollywood. Is known to party too much and is drawn to all the trappings of the game. ... Has defied the odds and proven to be a great college-system quarterback, but still must prove he is willing to work to be great, adjust his hard-partying, Hollywood lifestyle and be able to inspire his teammates by more than his playmaking ability. South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney Lacks discipline on and off the field and has had to be managed closely since he arrived on campus. Needs to learn what it means to be a pro. Plays in spurts and is too much of a flash player -- does not consistently dominate like he could. Is still immature and finding his way -- too much of a follower. Oregon TE Colt Lyerla Overly emotional and prone to outbursts following a dysfunctional childhood that offered little direction and much confusion related to a divorce. Not a disciplined team player. ... Has overcome a lot of adversity stemming back to his youth and defied the odds to become an impactful performer. Talent grades could garner interest in the second round, but past history could easily knock him down several rounds and off many draft boards. South Carolina CB Victor Hampton Character will require careful evaluation -- has been troubled by a number of off-field issues dating back to high school, when he attended four different schools. Has had issues with anger management, emotional outbursts and team suspensions. Will be targeted for unsportsmanlike conduct penalties given tendency to talk and taunt. ... Size and physicality will appeal to teams, though character concerns will cloud his draft status and could knock him off some draft boards. Will require close monitoring and has bust potential. LSU RB Jeremy Hill Character, maturity and stability must be investigated thoroughly -- has two criminal incidents on his record and is on probation until July, 2015. ... Big, thickly built, athletic slasher with an overinflated sense of his abilities and character red flags, which could cause some teams to shy away. Alabama OLBAdrian Hubbard Has a quirky personality, inflated opinion of his ability and carries a sense of entitlement that could be difficult to manage and require a patient positional coach. ... Has starter traits, but has yet to reach the impact level he thinks he makes. Texas WR Mike Davis Inadequate on-field body language and temperament -- is usually at the back of the line in practice drills and does not exhibit urgency in his play or leadership traits in the locker room. ... Displays starter-caliber physical traits, yet his playing demeanor and approach turn off many evaluators and could force his draft status to sink. Florida DE Ronald Powell Had his tires pumped since high school -- entitlement was an issue as a young player and his personality could rub some people the wrong way. ... Has developmental value as a stand-up rush linebacker, but must dedicate himself to the craft and realize he's no longer the big man on campus. Western Kentucky DB Jonathan Dowling Talks too much and shows off-putting body language. Questionable mental toughness. Thinks he's better than he is. Character, maturity and coachability should be looked into. Alabama State RB Isaiah Crowell Beats to the tune of his own drummer. Extremely immature and has a history of off-field issues. Can be difficult to coach.
The funny thing about Nawrocki's criticism of Geno last year was that McShay didn't say he was absolutely wrong, that he wasn't 180 degrees off about Geno, just that he went a bit too far. That his criticisms had some validity, just not to the extent Nawroki made them out to be. _
I know this will probably come off sounding like a douche thing to say, but I'm starting to think my evaluations are more accurate than some of these guys. I'm not an expert, but I know what I know, and I know what I don't know. One thing I can tell you for sure is that even if they are better evaluators than me, I know the makeup of the teams around the league a whole hell of a lot better than they do, and that seems like a pretty important part of their jobs. Like I said, maybe saying I can evaluate players better is going too far, but I have no doubt I have a better grasp of how the 32 NFL teams have been built.
