The Joe Douglas Experience: You Are Now Experienced.

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by MaximusD163, Apr 27, 2020.

  1. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    When the Jets hired Joe Douglas to be their new general manager last summer, it became the ultimate tease as a fan. A new boss to run the show, and an entire year to speculate just how he would go about doing it. We have crept through free agency, and finally gotten through the most interesting draft process I’ve gotten to really pay attention to in years. What is the result of it all? Who is Joe Douglas as a General Manager?

    Part A: Sourcing Personnel.
    -There are 4 personnel pools that a team can source it’s players from. Free agency, other teams’ rosters, the draft, and undrafted free agency. Douglas has made it clear that the primary personnel pool will be the draft, and while nearly all general managers say that, he has backed it up. It can be tempting to pay the big name, or make the big trades, but Douglas has stood firm and added 9 players in the draft, and 8 from the top 5 rounds.

    Part B. Personnel Prototypes.
    -There are a few different ideologies when it comes to what scouts look for in players, and none is absolutely right or wrong. These are phrases I use to describe exactly what a team looks for, and of course most of the time it is a preference, not an exclusionary tool.

    1. Football First: Speed/Athleticism not key features. Production and high floors valued. Work ethic highly valued.

    2. Track Team: Size/Production not key features. Rare speed valued. Explosive twitch and change of direction valued.

    3. Rare Breed: Realized potential not key feature. Unusual size/athleticism combination valued.

    I think it should go without saying that any GM is searching for the player who is a 3 way combo here, but rarely if ever does that exist. What I am saying is that if there are 3 players at the same position available, and each exhibits primarily one of these descriptions, every GM will have a tendency to grade one type higher than the others.

    It appears to me after one off season that Joe Douglas is a fan of the “rare breed” class of player. George Fant, Breshad Perriman, Mekhi Becton, Denzel Mims, Jabari Zuniga... Each of these players has unusual athleticism for their size, with perhaps some work to be done to achieve their potential.

    According to a study done on average positional height/weight in the NFL:

    -Becton is above the mean by 3.25 in and 50 lbs
    -Fant is above the mean by .25 in and 8 lbs
    (Fant’s wife is named Chastity Gooch, no joke. It means nothing to this post but.... Chastity Gooch.)
    -Perriman is above the mean by 2.6 in and 14.7 lbs
    -Mims is above the mean by 2.6 in and 6.7 lbs
    -Davis is above the mean by 1.3 in and 1.8 lbs
    -Hall is above the mean by 1.3 in and 1.8 lbs
    -DE seems to take 3-4 and 4-3 ends into account so the average is a little high, but Zuniga as far as I know is on the average size for an Edge player at 6’3” 263 lbs.

    Not a single one of these players is at or below the average, and nearly all tests in the highest percentiles for athletic measurables, in particular when compared to players of comparable size. He also aims for team captains, with more than half of his 9 picks having been designated team captains for their college programs.

    Part C. BPA or Need?
    -What were generally considered the Jets biggest needs? OT, WR, CB, Edge, Backup QB, RB, IOL.
    -What are the needs for players who’s contracts are expiring? S, CB, NCB, Edge, IOL
    -What positions were drafted? OT, WR, S, Edge, RB, Backup QB, IOL, CB, P

    It looks to me as if need plays a major role in the players selected. The Ravens model is said to be BPA at a position of need. Considering the drafted players line up to a “T” with the needs, but not necessarily in the exact order of greatest need, I would suggest that they are following the Ravens model.

    We can now project future moves by Joe Douglas based on these conclusions.

    Joe Douglas will add minimally through free agency, filling holes with inexpensive players with upside, and committing to FA’s only who are of quality and fit his deemed value. He will address immediate and future needs through the draft, selecting best player available at those positions of need. He will aim to maintain a high number of picks in rounds 2-4. His draft picks will generally be larger and more athletic than the average player at their position. He will aim to draft players who exhibited leadership qualities. He is not afraid of medical red flags, as Zuniga, Davis, and Hall each fell in the draft due to just that. Finally, Douglas places a premium on players with ability to play multiple positions.

    After months of speculation, we can begin to understand what kind of team the Jets will be, and we can begin to estimate what kind of moves their General Manager will make.
     
  2. rscherwin

    rscherwin Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the post. And for the time taken to find the facts and statistics. Well thought out.

    Nice to see a GM who has a plan. Other than following this algorithm:
    1) In the first round, take the consensus best player available at any position, regardless of need.
    2) In later rounds, swing for the moon, ignoring eye tests, positions of need, and character concerns.

    After Idzik and Macagnan, we're in for good times. And thanks to Macagnan's rule 1, we have an O and D building block.
     
  3. Biggs

    Biggs Well-Known Member

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    Great post. Loved Hendrix and in particular "Are you Experienced". Some people think the song was about Hendrix trying to get a women to take acid with him. Others think it's about expanding your mind and letting go.

    Let's hope Joe Douglas is expanding our potential and letting go of old boundaries as he continues to lead the team forward and this wasn't a one off acid trip.
     
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  4. GQMartin

    GQMartin Go 'Cuse

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    New York Jets


    Draft picks: Louisville OT Mekhi Becton (No. 11 overall), Baylor WR Denzel Mims (No. 59), Cal S Ashtyn Davis (No. 68), Florida DE Jabari Zuniga (No. 79), Florida RB La'Mical Perine (No. 120), Florida International QB James Morgan (No. 125), UNC-Charlotte OT Cameron Clark (No. 129), Virginia CB Bryce Hall (No. 158), Texas A&M P Braden Mann (No. 191)
    Day 1 grade: A
    Day 2 grade: A
    Day 3 grade: B+
    Overall grade: A-
    Draft analysis: New York completed its overhaul of the offensive line with Becton in the first round, found a second-round value at receiver in Mims and got solid picks on the edge and at safety.

    On Saturday, Perine was brought in rather than attacking the team's need at cornerback. Perine is a really fun back to watch, however, so I expect he'll back up Le'Veon Bell adeptly. I think Morgan was probably picked a round or so earlier than his film portended, but I can't blame the Jets for wanting to find a potential backup quarterback. The question is: Should Jake Fromm have been the selection, despite his average arm? Clarke was a solid value pick in the fourth as a versatile offensive lineman, but the team could have used that pick (No. 129) to address another position. Hall might have been a second-round pick after the 2018 season, but an injury dropped him down boards a bit -- he could prove to be a real steal in the fifth. Mann's leg will be appreciated by his defense. Getting cornerback Quincy Wilson from the Colts for a sixth-round pick makes sense.
     
  5. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

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    Funny how during the draft folks on here got upset with JD taking this WR over that WR, or this RB over that RB.

    You didn't convince me you are smarter than JD. You convinced me you should never be a GM!
     
  6. Lon Chaney

    Lon Chaney Well-Known Member

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    First off, thank you for this write up. Posts like these are the reason I still come here.

    In do, however, have some fundamental disagreements on the picks made by JD.

    Basically it boils down to the 2 3rd rounders.

    I would've loved to see OLB Baun and WR Brian Edwards in the third. I like that combination better than Davis and Zuniga.
     
  7. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    What position would you have Baun play?
     
  8. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I respect your opinion, but if MaximusD163 is correct, Baun was not a good fit for the Jets for what Douglas is looking for. He only weighs 235 lbs. and is only 6'2". He is below the mean in height/weight. He is an excellent prospect, and I would have been happy to add him in the 3rd, but let's see how it plays out. If it was a mistake on Douglas' part, so be it. He is a human and a rookie GM, so it's quite possible that passing on Baun and not taking a 2nd WR were mistakes.

    I would have liked adding Bryan Edwards in the 3rd as well, and was puzzled when Douglas passed on him and other WRs in the 4th. We just have to hope that he was right. With all the holes the Jets have, he may be guilty of getting a little greedy and trying to fill too many holes and too many different positions of need. If so, it's an easy mistake to make, and I can understand it.
     
  9. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    MaximusD163, excellent, interesting post!

    I think your categories need some tweaking however. For instance, you have "Work ethic highly valued" under "Football First," but it's not exclusively under that category. I think that a number of traits/characteristics can be found in more than one category, and don't think it's as neat and clean as you present it. I think explosive twitch and change of direction belongs under "Rare Breed" as much as it does "Track Team." I don't think Douglas even considers players who don't have a great work ethic and desire to be their best. You also possibly left out a category. That's players who love the game, who hate to lose, and who have great work ethics to be the best they can be. One can probably add smart players to that as well (players with great football IQs). I also don't think that Douglas would take players under the "Rare Breed" category who didn't have at least good production in college. I assume that you are including the "lunch pail-type players" or "blue collar-type" players under the "Football First" category. Those types can do very well at some positions (DL and OL), but much less so at the skill positions. So I think you may need to alter or do away with you categories altogether.

    I loved Douglas' approach to FA and loved his handling of the draft, although I can quibble about a few players/positions in the draft. I love that he goes for players that are "rare breeds" who have great size, athleticism, and speed. IMO that's what GMs should do. You look for players with production, but who have a ton of talent, and still have lots of room to grow. With good teaching/coaching, those players can develop into the best pros. The thing is that those players have to want to learn and be the best they can be and have a great work ethic. Sometimes those types don't, but based on what I know of Douglas so far and what I've learned about the players he took, all of his picks seem to have that work ethic and desire to be great. Those players can be much more productive that the ones who have already reached their ceiling in college, and who were very productive in college, but due to their lack of size, athleticism and speed, will not be nearly as good or effective in the NFL as they were in college. I think the hardest thing is projecting how collegiate players will fare in the NFL. That's where some GMs fail and where most of us fans miss as well. We see a player who was great in college, we love the player, and think he will have to be great in the NFL. We don't realize that maybe he's not a scheme fit, or doesn't love football, and is only playing for the money and fame, is lazy, etc. Even the GMs, the real "experts" get fooled frequently on this.

    Drafts are also supposed to be about the future and not just their rookie season. It's nice when a draft pick can be a plug and play player, and that's important too, as high draft picks should be able to start/play immediately, but if their ceiling is limited, then the team is never as good or strong as it could be. It may be likely that fewer of the types that Douglas prefers pan out than those who were "football first," but those types are the ones who become All Pros and HOFers, moreso than the "football first."

    It can also be that teams need a mixture of types of players. A team full of thoroughbreds might not work together and develop great chemistry. It might be too busy competing against each other and/or being selfish about their own playing time, stats and salaries.

    Thanks for the interesting and thought-provoking post. As the years go by, it will be interesting to refer back to this and see how accurate it is with regards to Douglas.
     
  10. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    Like I said in the post, it is not an exclusionary tool, and all GM’s prefer a combination of as many of these prototypes as possible. It’s when it comes down to a choice that you start to see preference. Rare Breed refers to players with a combination of size and athleticism. This can refer to speed, twitch, balance, etc so long as it is married with size. Those with a rare breed preference will (for example) select a 6’3” player with 4.39 speed and a 36” vert over a 5’10” player with 4.29 speed and a 40” vert (in a vacuum) you see what I’m saying? There will always be other factors, one does not preclude others necessarily.
     
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  11. Lon Chaney

    Lon Chaney Well-Known Member

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    I would have him start as DPR in his first year. Add some weight to him by his sophmore year could be hybrid OLB DE. I get he's too small for the traditional edge OLB, but with so many sub packages and different fronts in football today, it's hard to overlook his talent because he's not Lamar Woodleys size.

    Again just a matter of opinion. I could live with Zuniga if he was paired with Edwards. I'm more upset that in the deepest WR draft in a decade we walked away with one prospect.

    I understand the logic of Davis - he's super athletic and the whole we're not gonna pay Maye angle - I just don't agree with it. Edwards would've been ab perfect compliment to Mims. He's more of a possession guy. Could develop into a solid number 2.
     
  12. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Check my new thread about why Douglas didn't draft a 2nd WR. It quotes an article from the Star Ledger that says that Douglas went with the BPA at every pick and that none of the WRs at their picks were considered the BPA.
     
  13. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    First, great post and analysis! Finding these little known measurables is like the "flesh on the bone" to most stats typically discussed. Thanks for that!

    What jumped out at me was this:

    "The Ravens model is said to be BPA at a position of need."

    This is what I've been preaching forever here, and was diametrically opposed to Macc's "BPA all day, all the time, regardless of need". It's how we wound up missing out on Mahomes and getting two Safeties, while the Ravens who already had a decent starting QB from most people's POV went ahead and took Lamar. Honestly, it feels like we spent the last decade in the desert. Thankfully, Douglas has delivered us from that!
     
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