Judging by the confidence poll on here earlier in the week, most of us are in agreement that we don't have a great shot to win this one. While I'm certainly in that boat, I've been thinking about some things that if they happen, we can win. 1 - If we keep it a 1 score game in the 4th quarter. Obviously a number of things need to happen for this to be the case. I'm not going to try and describe a game plan to get to this point but some of my other items will address that. We're not a team built to play from 2+ scores behind, and the last meeting turned into that almost instantly because of a comedy of errors in coaching decisions and poor play. The Pats took full advantage. The Pats haven't been in many close games this year - at least lately and have a number of young players with no playoff experience. There last close game against the Packers could have easily been a loss had the Packers backup QB not fumbled the snap late in the game. The Jets have a lot of experience in close games and Sanchez seems to have developed a knack for leading the team to game winning scores. While Brady certainly can do the same, I would sign up right now to take my chances with this situation. All the pressure would be on the Pats if we in a one score game with 5 minutes to go IMO. It's a spot many of those guys haven't been in this season and it could cause someone to make a critical mistake 2 - Nacho needs to get in a rhythm early on. We've all seen it this year. When he's on, he's on for most of the game and when he's off, he's off for most of the game. Schottenheimer needs to help him out here by giving him some jump shots early on in non-obvious passing situations. I'm not saying I want to come out pass happy, I just want to see him get some easy completions early on. 3 - At least 1 long, time consuming drive Much like we did to Peyton Manning in the second half, if we can keep Brady on the bench for a 10 minute TD drive in a close game it will greatly improve our chances here. Not only would this give us a TD, momentum and confidence, it will reduce the number of possessions there offense has and wear down there depleted front 7. 4 - Establish the run early. This is probably nothing more than a "no shit" point, but it needs to be said when making this thread. In order for us to accomplish the 3 previous points, we will need to be able to consistently run the ball. It's not too daunting of a task against the Pats, but not having Woody will make it more challenging. 5 - Rex cannot panic. In the last meeting I felt like Rex was in complete panic mode to start the game as evidenced by some of his early decisions (challenge/go for it on 4th/long FG). The players reacted to his panic by doing the same thing. He needs to be the fearless leader he portrays at the podium and not be scared to be down 7-10 points early on. What needs to happen in your mind for the Jets to win? * I know this could have gone into the game discussion thread, but that's turned into a shit storm and I thought this could be a good thread by itself.
If we defer, stop the Patriots on their first drive, and be the first team to score, then I think we'll have a good chance to win the game. We're not going to beat them if we have to play catch-up all game.
all your points are great and well taken. i think if they can do exactly what they did last week, which was 3 and out manning and the colts 3 times in a row, not to mention on 3 consecutive 3rd and 1's, this will escalate the confidence more than anything.
There are two non game plan specific things that worry me and they aren't specific to us in any way. One is the Pats had the doors blown off of them last year by the Ravens and you know they haven't forgotten that one. It's tough to see them losing two home playoff games in a row. Two is the two weeks of preparation. Those things scare me more than the way we played in the last game. We can beat these guys. Control the clock, keep it close and don't self destruct.
Gotta have faith. I think the Jets have a much better chance to win then the "experts" have been predicting. One thing about your list WSW is that you didn't say anything about the defense. I think the defense needs to find a way to repeat what they did to Peyton. Less focus on blitzing and more on shutting down the passing lanes. Plus stopping them on 3rd down will be key. Get off the field and get the ball into the hands of LT/Shonn.
I agree with everything you said, but I'd like to add something. We need to beat them with one of the most overlooked things in all of football: Special Teams. Steve Weatherford has been awesome this year. Our gunners have to step up and make plays for him. He's going to put the ball deep into their territory - guys like Cole, McKnight, and Wilson need to fly down there and down the damn ball before it gets to the endzone. Nick Folk hasn't missed a kick in five games. He needs to make it six games without a miss. Brad Smith can change the game in a second. I'm hoping for a big return from him. Lastly, our punt returns have been terrible lately. In a game where field position will be crucial, someone has to step and get some yards. I'm sick of the fair catches when there's plenty of room.
Very good point on ST's. We were awful on ST's last time against these fucks. I just saw Brad Smith will be a game time decision. I'm guessing he'll start, but question whether he'll finish.
Actually, I don't agree. I think the Jets need to blitz, just not on every down. The key is that they need to blitz more effectively than they did the last game. They need to show multiple looks and keep Brady guessing.
All good points. On the defensive side of the ball the key is stating away from the blitz. We know we aren't going to get consistent press on Brady. I hope Rex tones down the blitzing and uses some of his extra bodies to jump the underneath routes. I would gladly trade one or two big plays from NE for one or two turnovers with a short field, or even a pick six. Let's be honest we aren't going to shut down their offense, but if our D can play opportunistic in this one, it might just be the edge we need.
Avoid giving up big plays. The Pats are gonna score TDs on us. Their offense is unreal and our defense is just ok. The things we can't let happen are the plays like the Garcon play from last week. If they need 8-10 plays to score TDs than that slows the game down. On offense, control the clock and get TDs. Pretty simple. WSW said we need 1 long scoring drive, I say we need two. If we can have 2 10+ play scoring drives we'll probably win the time of possession battle. If we can do these things we'll have a good shot at winning. Against any other team we do these things it's a slam dunk victory but against the Patriots it'll give us a good shot. I don't think my confidence going into a game has ever been lower but with each passing day I feel better about the matchup. GO JETS!
Offense is key - Your 5 points emphasize offense mostly, and rightfully so because I feel Sanchez is the key to this game. Our defense is just coming off holding Peyton Manning to 16 points, so I am confident they will hold their own and not allow the 45 points they did the last time. I am think ing Brady will score in the neighborhood of 28-35 points this time, which means the onus is once again on El Guappo to lead the offense to at least that many points. A conservative game plan will lead to mediocre results. We need to open it up and that means going for it on 4th down if need be (just don't do it on our own 40 in the 1st quarter, please! Special Teams - I think our special teams can decide a win. Hopefully Folk's confident game-winner will translate into enough confidence to give us the FGs we'll need when we don't score 7. I think I'm ready to gamble on Cro doing some KO returns instead of Cotchery. Cotch is steady but gets no yards. We can't afford to be conservative. Conservativism in this game will result in a 35-24 loss. Change it up - Don't give Belichick and Brady anything to go on. Mix up the coverages and resort to unpredictable thigs both offensively and defensively. Change constantly and throw on downs you don't expect andrun on others you wouldn't expect. Stay with what works! - For God's sake, Schotty, if the run is working and they can't stop us from poinding it down their throat, keep on doing it until they make us stop. Schotty's not a bad OC in my opinion, but he needs to stick with what works or is working somewhat well.
Definitely. Our special teams killed us in the second game against New England. Nick Folk missed a deep field goal and they capitalized with a TD, making it a two score game. The shank by Weatherford was such an uncharacteristic mistake. The Pats got an incredibly short field, scored another TD, and went up 17-0. That bad punt by a guy that's had a record breaking season gave them all the momentum in the world. If Smith's out, I have tons of faith in Antonio Cromartie returning kicks. After the last return against Indy, everyone should have faith in him.
I agree they need to mix it up, but offenses have found a way to pick up our blitzes, and we've been getting burned. Rex's/Pettine's game plan against Peyton was perfect. I think you can count the # of times they blitzed him on one hand. I think we need to do the same against Brady.
The Sanchez portion is the biggest part IMO. The gameplan vs the Bears was brilliant, start out with short passes and go from there. You're correct, if we can get him into a rhythm there is no reason why we couldn't hang with the Pats if it comes down to a offensive battle. The throws Mark was making against Chicago were the best throws I've seen him make as a Jet. The Bears defensive is markedly better too. When we get out to a lead no matter how small, we need to impose our will at the line, run the ball and burn clock. (just like you said) On defense I see a mixed bag of what Peyton saw and some blitzes coming from our DBs. I know we'll stop the run unless like the Colts game Rex will concede some rushing yards to establish our passing defense.
....they never fall behind by more than 7. If they trail by more than a TD at any point, I think they are toast.
It was but we can't just plug that into this game. The Pats run game is much better and they'd gauge us on the ground for big chunks if we keep all those DB's in all the time.
