It seems like every year there are fans wanting the GM fired because they didn't pick 7 rounds worth of quality players but here's a little excerpt from an article I found. http://draftmetrics.com/files/draft101.pdf -7 of the 8 players drafted will ultimately play in the NFL, with 6 of those playing in the year they were drafted Just more than 5 of the 8 players will play at least 3 years in the NFL 4 of the 8 players will play at least 5 years in the NFL 2.5 players will start for at least 3 years 1.8 players will start for at least 5 years 1.25 players will become starters in their rookie season IMO, the key to good drafting is basically hitting on your first and second round picks, and having one of the other ones pan out. So, if you're getting 3 long term starters per draft, you're beating the averages by a long shot. But what do I know ... I'm no draft junkie.
Looks like a Statistician put that article together. Lets' face it, go thru the last 10 years of drafts and at least 50%+ 1st Round picks never achieved anything worth mentioning. Here's my take on drafting players: - Most important: DRAFT THE BPA. Too many Gms reach for a need and let an outstanding player slip thru their fingers. My philosophy.....A player that wasn't a need on draft day....can easily be a need on opening day. I want the BPA on my team. Of course with-in reason....I don't expect Rex to draft a QB in Rd 1. Drafting the BPA with a Common sense approach. - don't get wrapped up on workout warriors. The combine is important, but it's only part of the process. Too many GMs put too much weight on combine results. Have to look at certain drills more...like the shuttle, backpeddling, locating the ball and hand drills. Less focus on bench & straight line speed. - Does he pass the eye test?? IMO, this is very important. How does the player respond in game situations. Does he hustle, have good instincts, love football. Can he make plays when the game is on the line. - The more picks you have, the less likely to fail. Trading up in certain situations is great....Sanchez, Revis, Harris & Greene....were all drafted trading up. Tanny has gotten lucky and it has worked out well. IMO, having more picks gives you some cushion to make a mistake, especially in later Rds. - Luck is a big part.....some teams get lucky, just the way it is. - Go with your gut, a lot of players just watching them you can tell they're going to be a good NFL player...trust your instincts.
I loved one prospect a long time ago when I knew nothing about drafts or prospects. I liked him because he had a cool name and I said, "You can't be a shitty player with that name. You have to be awesome." That player was DeMarcus Ware. True Story.
Excellent draft post as always. BPA within reason is the recipe for success, and far too many people, on this board in particular, fail to understand that.
Good post! I'd add: - Don't fall in love with players that may fit a glaring need (is related to taking the BPA). This can lead to frequent trading up to make sure you get those players, when there may be other prospects that can be just as good, if not better than the coveted prospect, and they can be had in a lower round.
Michael Lombardi had an article similar to WW85 post http://www.nfl.com/combine/story/09...t-challenge-is-keeping-combine-in-perspective Cant really argue with anything either said
