Hey all, Sorry to thread-hijack, but seems like this one is winding down and I can't make a new thread cause I rarely post here. But there's one statistic related to fumbles (so, marginally relevant to a thread about RBs) that worried me coming into this season, and I wanted to share it here. You can teach ball security. Great coaches like Belichick and Payton emphasize the hell out of it, and their teams rarely fumble as a result. And you can teach aggressive defensive techniques that aim to strip the ball (see: Charles Woodson). What you CAN NOT TEACH, based on pretty much every statistical analysis of fumbles from the past several decades, is fumble recovery. Once the ball hits the turf, your team (over time) will recover about 50% of fumbles. The other team gets the other half. There's nothing you can do about it; statistically, it's pure luck. Last year, the Jets were phenomenally lucky in this regard. In 16 regular season games, we fumbled 22 times and forced 26 fumbles. Of the 48 times the ball hit the turf, the Jets recovered 30 of them. That's a 63% clip, which was the BEST in the NFL. This year, we've regressed to the mean (beyond, actually). In 15 regular season games, we fumbled 25 times and forced 25 fumbles. Of the 50 times the ball hit the turf, the Jets have recovered 21 of them. That's a 42% clip, which ranks among the WORST in the NFL. Lost fumbles, statistically, are slightly more damaging, points-wise than interceptions, because interceptions generally occur down the field. Fumbles can happen on kickoffs and punts (as we all know, ugh), and often, they are QB fumbles, meaning they're behind the line of scrimmage and result in a better starting point for the other team's offense. And think about the raw possession numbers: the Jets have recovered 9 fewer fumbles this year than last year, but that's not just a -9 for the number of Jets possessions this season... it's also a +9 for the opponent's possession tally, meaning it's an 18 possession difference than a season ago! Enormous. Despite this, we've managed to score 1.3 more points per game than last season, probably due to our red zone success. There are two conclusions you can draw from this: 1) Schotty ain't that bad. We've been unlucky, and normally this is a 10-11 win team. (Sunshiner option) 2) Our team last year was ass lucky and we never deserved to make the AFCCG. (Darksider option) To each their own. -Upstate (PS I'd love if a mod would make this its own thread, but maybe that's asking too much? Either way, thanks for reading.)
That's a great take. You can put a positive and negative spin on anything... I think what can't be disputed is that the offense is this team's Achilles' heel. So that side of the ball must be adressed first.
If you want me to change the thread title let me know. Also, I think we said this to you before - please post here more. Thank you.
If possible please do more of this! This was a great read and really shows how a few bounces can change a season.
Excellent post, I always read the Phil Steele college football preview and one thing he always emphasizes is schools that generally have an unusually high turnover ratio from the previous season. For example he might say something like " Last season Northern Illinois was +27 in turnover margain and exceeded expectations and won 10 games but expect them to come back to reality this season and it should result in a few more losses"
This is a great analysis. Being a Pats fan whom also likes to watch the Jets, I have been irritated by the lack of fumble recoveries this year, but as you say, it is pure luck. I want to see the Jets become an elite team in the NFL. I want to see more games like their last couple post seasons. I know its rare for someone to be a Pats fan, and also like the Jets, but that is my case and I stick by it. The Jets O line wasn't considered bad at all starting the season, in fact, it was touted as being one of, if not THE best in the NFL. Despite many fans here saying it is awful, it really isn't that bad either, but injuries hurt teams in a bad way and the Jets had to deal with some big ones this year. I get the fact that many of you claim the revolving door of receivers are having an impact on Mark Sanchez and his ability to establish a rapport with them but to that, I disagree. How many rookies/backups came into games this year and did better than Sanchez? more than a handful, I'll say that. When I watch Sanchez, its almost like he is determined to throw to his first read on passing plays. He stares them down for so long that my dead grandmother could crawl up from the ground, run 20 yards, and get a hand on the ball. WTF Mark!??!?! knock it off man, you are broadcasting to the entire defense who you are about to throw too, no wonder you have so many COSTLY picks this year. The safety last week....OMG WTH was that. I am sorry guys, but that is not the work of a 3rd year QB with 50 games under his belt. That looks more like a rookie mistake than anything else. It could be the OCs fault, I guess, and before any major move is done with Sanchez, I think it would be better to get a new OC in here and see what happens, but I have never been a Sanchez fan. This is a passers league now. Rules have been changed to make it passing friendly and to those ground and pound teams still giving it a go, they are living in the past. It is just not effective anymore. I know establishing a strong running game opens up the pass. Specifically play action or option routes, but make no mistake, good teams only run the ball to open up the pass and keep the Defenses honest now a days. Im willing to give Sanchez one more year assuming a new OC comes in and shakes things up, but this team is built to win NOW, not 3 years from now, not 5 years from now. Greene is a great RB, who after a crappy start, will have over 1000 rushing yards in a pass happy NFL. Thats pretty impressive. You can't fix stupid, and Sanchez has been stupid many times this year. Does that come with growing up? who knows. Will he gain the experience to read defensive schemes and adjust accordingly on a consistent basis? who knows! There are many avid and passionate Sanchez supporters here, those folks will blame everyone but Sanchez himself for his poor performances and put it all on his shoulders when he has a great game(you can count those on one hand btw). but the last few post season games were not won by Sanchez. He had poor passing numbers in many of those games and his defense bailed him out. This years Jets defense regressed, so did Sanchez(yet stats indicate otherwise). Can we get a stat that points out stupid and boneheaded plays made by the QB? If so, I bet Marky leads the league in them. At an astounding pay of 8.5 Million dollars due to Sanchez next year, I would NOT be surprised to see him cut in the offseason. 8.5 Million is a ton of money to pay a mediocre game manager playing in a QB role. I just do not think he is that good, and I don't think he will EVER be that good, however, SD thought the same thing about Drew Brees and we all know what happened there. oh well, enjoy my giant wall of text
Murrell- Thanks for making this into its own thread. Just wanted to offer a little statistical perspective on one reason why this season hasn't been as good as we expected... and for this one, you can't really blame any player/coach/philosophy.
Can't I blame Schotty anyway? I had a runny dump last night. Afterward, I screamed 'FIRE SCHOTTY!!!' True story. Great thread, BTW.
I didnt manage to get gamepass this year (and am I now glad about that - I think i would have put my fist through my monitor before now) and so I have not seen that many games in decent HD - I would be interested to see descriptions/stats as to what led to or caused the Jets fumbletastic season to see if there is any pattern - will try to have a dig around as you can usually find stats about anything somewhere.
Why is there a thread with actual analysis and insight in the main Forum? Nice post UJF! Truth is, fumbles are not predictable and that's the anomaly that may actually decide which way the percentage will fall. While there is no doubt that it plays a huge part in field position (btw, this allows me to get in my shoulda Kept Weatherford comment) it's just one of those things that there is no estimated value for because of the unknown. Where interceptions, you can at least get an estimated value because of the QB's and/or the Defense's Tendencies. That said, the numbers do not lie.
I'm not sure why you would draw this conclusion out of all available options. My general feeling is that turnovers, and fumbles in particular, tend to hurt the defense more than the offense (i.e. if the Jets' offense fumbles, the Jets' defense is impacted greater than the Jets' offense was). In my opinion this is true because, as you stated, fumbles are likely to occur in places where the opposing offense starts with good field position, and also because defenses seem to be more affected when taking the field with short rest than offenses ever do. Also, it is hard to argue that Shotty has been hindered too much by fumbles when the Jets defense has created almost as many possessions via fumble as the Jets have lost (assuming the 42% is applied equally to the Jets fumbles and opponents fumbles, the Jets have lost possession 15 times and gained possession 11 times via fumble). I guess the impact of that discrepancy is debatable, but 4 fewer offensive possessions over 15 games doesn't seem crucial to me. I am not trying to use this argument to bash the Jets in any way; I would just revise the "Jets sunshiner option" to be more like: The Jets' defense hasn't regressed as much as it seems. They have been unlucky, and normally this is a 10-11 win team. Then again, my version isn't really mutually exclusive to yours... I just don't really understand why this is being used as a direct reflection on Schotty of all people. Btw, I understand that this wasn't necessarily your opinion anyways - you were just outlining different possibilities.
Fumble recoveries aren't fifty-fifty in all situations, are they? I though strip sacks get recovered by the D most of the time and muffed punts by the receiving teams most of the time. Not sure what that says about the Jets' luck.
Great post. Now I can walk around saying how unlucky the Jets are. The Holmes fumbles and the ST fumbles were game killers that took potential points off the board or caused us to play D on a short field. Ball control is certainly something that needs to be emphasized in the off-season.
Are the odds really exactly 50-50% as far as who recovers a fumble? I would think the defensive team has a better chance of recovering the ball since they typically have more people around the ball at contact and they are actually looking at the ball carrier as opposed to offensive players who are not looking at the ball carrier but instead are focused on who they are assigned to block.
Since we're looking at total fumbles, as opposed to just the ones that our offense coughs up, then yeah, the odds have shown time and time again (and remember, this is over an infinite number of fumbles) that it's 50/50. I'm not sure about fumble type and how it relates to likelihood of recovery; it certainly seems like the defense is more likely to recover a muffed punt or a QB strip sack, while the offense is probably more likely to recover a fumbled snap. For a sample size as small as one football season, that type of thing could matter, and may lead to some different conclusions about the hot pile of garbage that is our 2011 season. But I'm all researched-out for the time being, maybe that's something that someone else could look up
If someone did a full analysis of fumble recoveries by type I would guess it varies, but the overall comes out close to 50/50. Part of this is that so many fumbles are recovered by the player who fumbled, Dropped kickoffs and punts. bad snaps, bad handoffs, those tend to be recovered more by the offense is seems. WR fumbles in space seem to be recovered more by the defense as they tend to have a numerical advantage at the spot.
Four fewer offensive possessions over 15 games, relative to the mean (50/50 scenario), is probably not a huge deal. But my data is comparing this season to last year's lucky season, where we would've had something like 16 gained possessions vs 11 lost possessions. Comparing the two years gives you a 9 possession swing. We've had 9 fewer possessions than last year but scored about three more touchdowns; that's where the Schotty sunshiner option comes from.
It's interesting to see people look to the offense (which has fumbled less often this year than last) as opposed to special teams (which have directly cost us at least three games) for this issue.
