Rockinz Jets Mock draft 2.0

Discussion in 'Draft' started by Rockinz, Apr 5, 2022.

  1. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    niners gave up
    12 1200
    future 1st 420
    2 years out 1st 190
    future comp 3rd 35

    total 1845
    3rd is worth 2200

    the niners technically got the better end. it would have been more even trading up to 4. the package they offered is worth less then what you are suggesting the jets would get with the falcons
     
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  2. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    Are you asking about Pierce or Woods from the mock?
     
  3. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    2 year out first only worth 190? That’s crazy… even next year at 420 seems low…
     
  4. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    future picks devalue 1 round per year so a 1st 2 years from now is equal to a 3rd this year
     
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  5. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    To me that’s horse shit lol. I love Jimmy Johnson I believe he had one of the best eyes for talent from a coaching aspect I’ve ever seen. Having said that given what salaries are now compared to then and the quality of today’s medical system for injuries along with how much better athletes are today than in the 80’s/90’s.
     
  6. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Sorry. WW85 said Pitre responding to your post, and I thought that you must have said Pitre, so I got confused. I see now that you said Woods.

    Pitre is a S on Baylor as well and some have him as a 2nd round pick, higher than Woods. I was asking your opinion and WW85's opinion on Pitre.
     
    #26 NCJetsfan, Apr 5, 2022
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2022
  7. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    maybe it is maybe it isn't but the NFL is an economy which is always adjusting. 32 people set the economy in the NFL. really has nothing to do with the chart itself, but Gms follow it pretty closely to a T. I've evaluated many trades and they all follow the same MO. so as fans using the chart becomes accurate to what GMs will do. the market bears what it bears.

    with that said, it works that way in life and everything economy wise. something in advance is worth less then something now. it's why if you borrow 50 bucks from a bank to pay back in a year, they won't take 50 back becuase that 50 a year from now is worth less. so to balance it they charge interest so they get more later for less now
     
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  8. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    What does his eye for talent have to do with how future picks are valued. Gased and Confused is correct. That's how future picks are valued. The devalue one round for every year. That's been public knowledge for forever.
     
  9. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    I’m not a big Jalen Pitre fan to be honest. He played over 1100 snaps in the slot and really doesn’t fit a team need.
     
  10. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    Right, now let’s say Det wanted to move up in the draft from 32 to let’s say 17 to jump a few QB needy teams. Your telling me if the same value on the chart for their first in 2023 or the Rams first in 2023?? No way.. the Lions first is worth way more than the Rams first in 2023… that’s the flaw I see.. it doesn’t consider a lot of variables
     
  11. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    I just don’t feel it’s accurate. The lions have the Rams first pick in 2023 and their own in 2023. Your telling me both those picks are valued the same? Not a chance.
     
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  12. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    the variables are always there which is why the value is lower. perfect example everyone expected the 2 1sts we got for jamaal to be in the mid 20s. instead we got pick 10. wilson got hurt and they started to fall apart. nobody expected seattle to be a bad team. same with the bengals had they traded a 1st people would have thought it would be top 10, instead they are picking 31. you never know who will rise and who will fall. even the rams or chiefs are 1 QB injury away from a top 10 pick and you never know was bad team winds up winning 10 games the next year. i'm sure though there is some consideration involved in how high that pick would be though.
     
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  13. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    No. The Lions own pick will be worth more because it's earlier in the draft. In the same draft all 1st round picks aren't equal, but they're all 1st round picks. The Rams' 2023 first round pick is at the bottom of the 1st round so this year, it is only worth a bottom of the 2nd round pick, maybe early 3rd, whereas the Lions' 1st round pick will probably be in the top 5 -10.
     
  14. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    It's a combination of both. The Rams 1st round pick in 2023 is worth whatever number the pick is in the 2nd round this year, then one applies the trade chart for the number of points it's worth. We all know that early 1st round picks are worth a lot more than late 1st round picks, the same applies to every round. That's what Jimmy Johnson's trade chart tried to quantify with numbers, by assigning a numerical point value for each pick in the draft.
     
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  15. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    I see. So it’s more marginal. That makes better sense. Thanks for explaining.
     
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  16. GreenGreek

    GreenGreek Well-Known Member

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    You're greatly over-discounting future picks. They're discounted partly because they're future, but mostly for uncertainty. But that uncertainty is not the same for all teams. It's highly likely that the Lions, Texans, etc. picks will be a high first next year. It's likely that Bucs, Rams, etc. picks will be low next year. Teams at the fringes don't discount full rounds. Everybody is projecting where they believe a pick will be. There's a reason why you never see a 3rd round pick being traded for a 1st 2 years in the future. That's because that's an asinine discount. You also don't see 2nds being traded for 1sts next year. Again, it's a crazy discount. What you see is a current 1st for a future 1st plus an extra moderate asset (e.g. Day 2 pick).
     
  17. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I disagree that I'm greatly over-discounting. Picks at the bottom of the round are not worth what picks are at the top of the round. That's a fact, that is quantified in the trade charts. The Lions and Texans picks will probably be early in the draft, and the trade chart assigns more points to those picks than they do picks in the same round that are late in the round. That's how the system works.
     
  18. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    they do discount full rounds. there is variance though. so say a team like the lions offers a future first. it'll be worth about 480 where a team like the rams would be about 360 which the the difference between an extra late 3rd rounder in the current year. so the rams would have to offer their future 1st and a current 3rd for the value of the lions future 1st.

    also 2nds have been traded straight up for future 1sts before and if you look ant any trade (i've evaluated them all over the past decade) it's always a 1 round discount per year. just becuase you may not get it or it doens't make sense to you, doens't mean thats how NFL GMs do it. I'm only stating the facts based on a decade of trades while you are just going by your gut
     

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