I took a poke at this in 2014 and went 4 for 4. Probably will go o for 6 this year to make up the difference. I think this is where the QB's will land at the end of the evening tonight: Sam Darnold to the Browns. Josh Rosen to the Jets. Baker Mayfield to the Cardinals. Mason Rudolph to the Patriots. Lamar Jackson to the Steelers. Josh Allen to the Bills. I think that is the most likely order in which they are selected also. I hope the Jets get the opportunity to draft Rosen and take advantage of it. I still think there is a reasonable chance he goes in the top 2 picks. Now of course the first pick of the draft will be Mayfield or Allen and everything else in my prediction set will go to hell, except hopefully for Rosen to the Jets.
Sam Darnold to Browns Josh Rosen to Jets Josh Allen to Broncos (though those latest tweets may cause disarray here) Baker Mayfield to Cardinals Lamar Jackson to Ravens Mason Rudolph to Bills
One thing about Rosen is he's injury prone. Few concussions already and the next one or two could end his career.
If that takes Rosen off the list, then it takes both Baker (concussions) and Josh Allen (Shoulder) off the list too. At that stage it becomes Sam Darnold or Bust haha.
Concussions are cummulative. The first one you miss a week. The next one you miss 2-3 weeks. The next one you miss 4-6 weeks. The next one you retire. And each time it takes less and less trauma to cause the concussion. See Pat LaFontaine or Eric Lindros. LaFontaine literally bumped into a teammate for his last concussion that caused him to retire.
Mayfield did not have concussions--he went through concussion protocol twice--in 2016--and was cleared each time. His first protocol junior year he returned the very next game. His second protocol was during the Clemson bowl game his junior year and he was cleared the next week even though they had no further games. And never missed a snap in 2017 due to concussion. Rosen had two full-fledhged brain rattking concussions in 2017--missed two weeks of practice and a game after his first concussion and his second concussion caused him to miss UCLA's bowl game a full MONTH after his concussion. That was last year--2017. His last game ever in college ended with a concussion. Concussion protocol and concussions are two different things. An ankle tweak--a sprian--and you tape it up and you're back the next week. A high ankle sprain and you miss 6 weeks. Concussions are worse.
Fair enough. He did suffer a serious concussion in high school, but looking quickly at articles around the concussion protocol during college, it looks like he was cleared. I'm skeptical about them not being concussions, if only mild ones. I do worry about Mayfield in terms of concussions a bit more because he's more likely to leave the pocket. Feels like there's more of a chance for his brains to take a scrambling than a pure pocket passer. In terms of Rosen missing the Bowl game, I do wonder if it's because of his father's profession, which makes him a lot more cautious when it comes to head injuries, rather than risking unnecessary damage. I could see him coming off the field due to a potential concussion where other players might try to hide it and play through it.
I've been a Rosen fan since his freshman season at UCLA. He just looked so good as a true freshman on the big stage. I took a step back last year after the injury but I still liked him more than any other player in this class. Not just QB, player. The thing that might hold him back is the durability issue and the fact that he has great options outside football if he needs them or wants to pursue them. That's why I thought it was so important to find out how committed he was to football. The wanting to beat Tom Brady for Super Bowl wins was a huge thing for me. You don't say something like that if you are on a lark. That's the kind of statement you have to make every effort to follow up on and I'm guessing that if Rosen stays injury-free he has a shot at it. Short answer: I was never down on Rosen but I was cautious throughout the pre-draft process because I wanted to see how he responded to the questions about his passion for football. He's convinced me that he is really interested in being a great QB and given his tools he is likely to succeed.
Just to be clear, you’re more concerned about concussions for a guy who got hit 100 times last year and never had a concussion over a guy who had 2 really really bad concussions last year and isn’t particularly mobile.
Rosen is definitely more of a concussion risk, I just don't see Mayfield as risk-free. About the only person who seems to have no concerns at this stage is Darnold. Overall, when I look at these QBs, I'm more willing to overlook the risks compared to skill set than I would for a RB or WR.
Nobody is risk free. I love Rosen but he is geometrically more risky than Mayfield from a concussion standpoint. He’s just more durable, tougher. They’re both about 220 and Rosen is 4 inches taller.